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Russian GP preview: Will Lewis Hamilton's luck finally change?

Focus on ... the battle at Mercedes

It's impossible to find fault in the race performances of Nico Rosberg this season. In each race he has beaten the drivers around him on the grid and fully deserves the 75 points he has accumulated so far this year. However, until he goes into a head-to-head battle with teammate Lewis Hamilton, it's hard to gauge whether Rosberg has what it takes to make 2016 his year. The hope is that the Russian Grand Prix will provide the first of many battles between the two this year.

The Sochi Autodrom is a strong circuit for Rosberg. Last year he beat Hamilton to pole position on Saturday and looked in contention for victory until a throttle pedal issue forced him to retire. It's still too early in the year to start talking champions, but this weekend's race could carry serious clout in the psychological battle between Hamilton and Rosberg.

In need of a podium ...

Williams' grip on third place in the constructors' standings over the last two years looks to be slipping in 2016. The FW38 is not a bad car, but the drivers and team have admitted it has fallen short of expectations at the first three rounds. The much-heralded new nose has failed to deliver the performance boost the team was hoping for from Bahrain onwards, so it now needs to make the most of a circuit that it has been competitive at in recent years. A podium would put it back in the fight with Ferrari and Red Bull as the best of the rest, but another lacklustre performance will see it slip into the super-competitive midfield.

In need of points

The one-lap pace of the Force India has looked promising since testing, but the team's results in the opening three races have been underwhelming. On paper the VJM09 should be a top-ten contender, but at the last two rounds it has failed to finish in the points. Over the course of the season it should be able to battle Haas and Toro Rosso for fifth place, but it needs to capitalise on the current performance of the car, starting in Russia.

Weather

This season's Russian Grand Prix is being held earlier in the year for the first time and the forecast is for cold conditions throughout the weekend. Temperatures are unlikely break 17C, but sunny conditions should see track temperatures go up as the sessions progress. Those who have loaded their tyre allocations heavily with super softs -- Red Bull and Haas in particular -- should benefit, with the race likely to see one-stop strategies.

Betting

For the first time in a long time, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg start a race weekend on equal odds. Both Mercedes drivers are 5/4 to win in Sochi, while Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel is 11/2 and Kimi Raikkonen 16/1. If you think Hamilton's bad luck will continue you can get odds of 10/3 for him not to finish on the podium, but a more satisfying bet might be on home hero Daniil Kvyat to take his second podium in a row at 4/1. At the previous two Russian Grands Prix Williams has been competitive, so odds of 10/1 for Valtteri Bottas to finish on the podium may also be tempting.

ESPN Prediction

Bad luck never lasts forever, so we are backing Lewis Hamilton to return to the top step of the podium for the first time since he won the title in Austin last year. If he can combine it with a thrilling battle with teammate Rosberg, even better.

A lap with ... Toro Rosso's Carlos Sainz

"When racing in Sochi, at the start of the lap there's a lot of slipstream, so it's possible to arrive to Turn 2 with four cars side by side... One thing I don't like, especially here at this second corner, is the wide tarmac run-off areas, where a lot of cars just run wide instead of committing to the corner. Turn 3 is a very nice corner which is flat or very close to it - it's such a long corner and you just keep upshifting, reaching quite high lateral g-forces. I remember that Turn 4 is a good overtaking spot. After that there are four consecutive 90 degree corners before arriving to the back straight.

"Turn 13 is another good place for overtaking, but what this part of the circuit brings to mind is my terrible crash from last year - I'd say the biggest of my career so far. The final part of the circuit consists of another four 90 degree corners. The walls are also pretty close throughout the lap, which makes it a bit more of a challenge. Last year's race was quite exciting so I hope for another one like that and to be able to continue scoring points!"

Tyres

Available compounds: Medium, soft, super-soft

Key tyre info for Sochi, courtesy of Pirelli

  • Although the track is now three years old, the asphalt is still evolving and may be different.

  • With wear and degradation being low, we would not expect a high number of pit stops.

  • Weather conditions tend to be mild, so thermal degradation is not a big issue.

  • The most challenging corner is Turn 3: a multi-apex left-hander that recalls Istanbul's Turn 8.

  • About 1.7 kilometres of the 5.848-kilometre lap are run on roads open to the public.

  • A high degree of track evolution is expected, as the track is not otherwise used extensively.