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Canadian GP preview: Is Mercedes under pressure?

Focus on ... Red Bull v Mercedes

Is Mercedes' dominance finally under threat? It's a question that's been posed several times since the start of 2014, although it's usually been in hope rather than expectation. This time Red Bull has emerged as the reigning champions' closest challenger following two competitive races in Spain and Monaco, but it's this weekend's Canadian Grand Prix that promises to pose the real test of the team's resurgence.

At the centre of the hype around Red Bull is an upgraded Renault engine, which the team believes made the difference between Daniel Ricciardo securing pole position in Monaco and starting from the second row. The relative performance gain the upgrade offers against Mercedes should be greater on Montreal's long straights, but equally the chassis advantage Red Bull held in Monaco will be lessened. If Red Bull can remain within striking distance of a victory in Canada then the championship will be viewed in a very different light from next week's Grand Prix of Europe onwards.

Meanwhile, Ferrari is expected to bring updates to both power unit and chassis this weekend that should strengthen its claim to "best of the rest" behind Mercedes. The Italian team struggled for form in Monaco, but it should be remembered that Kimi Raikkonen was just 0.6s off victory two races ago in Spain. Montreal should suit the characteristics of the SF16-H more than either of the last two races, but finishing behind Red Bull for the third race in a row will only intensify the pressure already being felt in Maranello.

In need of a win

After scoring 100 points from the opening four races, Nico Rosberg has scored just six in the last two. He still has a healthy championship lead but now faces a rejuvenated Lewis Hamilton at one of his favourite circuits, while Red Bull and Ferrari could both steal points from Mercedes in this year's title fight. Rosberg's Monaco performance is not one he will want to dwell on and a return to the top of the podium will be a perfect way to bounce back in style.

In need of points

It seems a stretch given recent form, but a return to the points in Canada would be absolutely welcomed by Sauber after its drivers collided at the Monaco Grand Prix. Renault will also want to validate its new upgrade with a top-ten finish at a circuit which rewards engine power and continue to show the progress hinted at by Red Bull's recent resurgence.

Weather

F1 looks set for a chilly weekend in Canada, but at the time of writing no rain was forecast during the sessions. The low temperatures should help to lengthen stints as well as promoting the use of the low working range super-soft, but it remains to be seen whether a one-stop strategy will be possible for those starting the race on the ultra-softs.

Betting

With four career victories in Montreal, Lewis Hamilton is the clear favourite at 11/10 while Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg is 2/1. Daniel Ricciardo's recent form hasn't gone unnoticed by the bookies with odds of 13/2 ahead of Sebastian Vettel at 9/1. Those wanting to take a punt will be tempted by 2005 winner Kimi Raikkonen at 28/1 or 2011 winner Jenson Button at 40/1 for a podium.

ESPN prediction

Lewis Hamilton is mighty around the Canada circuit, with four victories to his name (2007, 2010, 2012 and 2015). Following his overdue win in Monaco ESPN is backing him to make him two in a row in Montreal.

A lap with... Carlos Sainz

"The start/finish straight in Canada is always very slippery. We also run with very low downforce, which means you're always going to struggle when braking and fight the steering wheel quite a lot. Turns 1 and 2 are one of the many chicanes that we have at this track, with the second corner being very, very slow. It's difficult to put thepower down here - there's always some oversteer.

"At Turns 3 and 4 there's the first wall of the track, which you try and get as close as possible to. Doing this gives you lap time and the closer you get to the wall, the more confidence you show. At every chicane, especially at Turns 6 and 7, kerb riding and positioning the car well in order to get a good line is also key. Doing this means you are then also quick on the straights following these corners. Turns 8 and 9 form another chicane. It might look like a very simple circuit because you have the same kind of corners all the time, but each of these chicanes has different tricks and you need to take each one of them in a diverse way.

"Turn 10 is one of the tightest corners of the calendar, as well as one of the slowest. This is certainly an overtaking point! The exit from this hairpin is also very important, because you continue onto one of the fastest straights of the year - we reach nearly 340kph, which is not bad at all! Finally, you get to what in my opinion is the best corner of the track, Turn 14, also known as the 'Wall of Champions'. It's a very tight chicane where you need to ride the kerbs again... And if you touch one of them in the wrong way, it sends you directly into the wall, so that's why it's so important to get this right! All in all, this is a fun circuit that on paper might seem an easy one, but driving it is always a challenge and it definitely produces good races - I want more points, we can do it... so let's go for it!"

Tyres

Available compounds: Ultra-soft, super-soft, soft

Circuit notes

  • Like Monaco, Canada is a low-grip circuit with a high degree of weekend track evolution

  • The cars reach speeds in excess of 300kph, meaning that they tend to run low downforce

  • The track is also famous for high kerbs, which provide the tyre structure with a big challenge

  • Weather conditions are variable: a factor that has led to a number of safety cars in the past

  • The hallmarks of Canada are acceleration and braking: longitudinal rather than lateral forces

  • Montreal is a semi-permanent facility, so track surfaces (and grip) can vary during the lap