MEXICO CITY, Mexico -- If it stays dry, the Mexican Grand Prix is going to be all about strategy. The big question is whether drivers one-stop or two-stop, with Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari already making their first move in Q2 when they decided which compound to start the race on. Red Bull's choice to use the super-softs when they had the pace to use the softs suggests they are targeting a two-stop, whereas Mercedes and Ferrari will start on the soft, potentially giving them a long enough first stint to make a one-stop work.
Friday's practice data suggests a two-stop (or even three-stop) is the quickest way to complete the 71 laps, but the cooler conditions two days ago were causing the two softest compounds to grain and therefore lose performance. Graining was not such a big problem in Saturday's hotter conditions, so if it's hot on Sunday a one-stop becomes more realistic whereas overcast conditions are likely to favour the two-stop.
The risk of the two-stop is that you get dropped into traffic after each pit stop and lose time. Traffic for a number of laps at this circuit has the potential to negate the performance benefit of the new tyres and the overall speed of the strategy. A one-stop has no such risks and allows the team to better cater for a potential safety car period by keeping its options open for longer.
The key to the one-stop is the medium tyres, which were experiencing next to no degradation on Friday and in some cases were getting quicker as the fuel load and the stint went on. If Mercedes, for example, one-stop they can make their single tyre change at a point when they know they will maintain track position at the front. With track position secure and overtaking difficult, even a quicker car coming up behind on a two-stop is unlikely to be a threat.
The other aspect of the two-stop v one-stop debate is the start. By starting on the super-softs, Red Bull will have more startline grip for the long run down to Turn 1. If they can get ahead of the Mercedes and build a gap, they could start to enjoy the pace benefit of the two-stop and force Mercedes to try to undercut on a two-stop strategy of their own. Leading out of Turn 1 will be crucial to controlling the race.
Pirelli recommends the following numbers of laps are not exceeded on each compound:
Medium = NO LIMIT suggested
Soft = 22 laps
Super Soft = 18 laps
On this basis, the possible pit-stop strategies predicted by Pirelli are as follows:
QUICKEST
Two-stopper: 2 stints on soft (19 laps on new tyres) + 1 stint on medium of 33 laps
Also possible (very close)
Three-stopper: 2 stints on super soft (15 laps on new tyres) + 2 stints on soft of 20 and 21 laps
SECOND-QUICKEST
Three-stopper: 1 stint on super soft (8 laps on used tyres) + 3 stint on soft of 21 laps
SLOWEST
One-stopper: 1 stint on soft (22 laps on new tyres) + 1 stint on medium of 49 laps
Different permutations of compound usage within each strategy are possible.
With those strategies, and the one-stop mentioned above, in mind, here are the tyres each driver has left for the race. Note that Nico Rosberg chose to complete a second run in Q2 on the softs and therefore has two sets of used softs as opposed to Lewis Hamilton's one new and one used.
A look at who's got what when it comes to tyres for the Mexican Grand Prix #F1 pic.twitter.com/B1LrtRrInE
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