Red Bull team principal Christian Horner says Mercedes will still be the team to beat in 2017, despite an overhaul of the regulations over the winter aimed at mixing up the order.
Mercedes has dominated Formula One for the last three years, but a new set of regulations for 2017 represents the biggest shake-up of the aerodynamic side of the sport since 2009. Back then a new competitive order emerged, with Red Bull going on to dominate the sport between 2010 and 2013, but Horner is not convinced a repeat is on the cards in 2017.
"I think it's going to be tough to overcome Mercedes, they will go into next year as the clear favourites," he said. "They have won three consecutive world championships, they've won 50-odd grands prix in the last three years. We're hopeful with the new regulations, it should balance out the emphasis between chassis and engine. We're confident we should make a bit of progress over the winter with the engine.
"The regulations are a clean sheet of paper for everybody. You don't know where you sit at the moment compared to your opposition. It's an opportunity or it's a challenge we're looking forward to. It's only really when we get to Melbourne that we'll get a glimpse of where the competitive ranking is. But for sure, Mercedes will be going in as the firm favourites. We're just hopeful we can close that gap so we don't have predictable results every grand prix weekend."
However, if Red Bull is close to Mercedes, Horner is confident his team will have a competitive advantage.
"Mercedes has been in a fortunate position in that they have never really been challenged since 2014. They have been qualifying on the front row and with a very fast car, you can pick your strategy where any variable will work out for you. When the grid does concertina, it does put on more pressure.
"We have been through tight championship battles, in 2010 and 2012, that did go down to the wire. I think that gives you a strong experience to deal with those situations. It will be a new experience for Mercedes, when they do come under pressure, which inevitably will happen at some stage. I just hope it is Red Bull that is able to put them under pressure."
In 2009, Brawn GP gained an initial advantage by finding a loophole in the regulations that allowed for a larger diffuser at the rear of the car. Horner said new regulations always create the possibility of one team gaining such an advantage, but believes development strength is the key to long-term success in the coming years.
"You hope that you haven't missed something like the double diffuser where there is an interpretation of the regulations that someone has spotted that generates an advantage. The regulations aren't quite as dramatic as they were from 08 to 09. But they still represent a great opportunity to make the cars significantly quicker.
"With the tyre profile and size that they are moving to, it's a different challenge. It's going to be a development race next year for sure. There will be easy gains at the beginning of any development cycle. That relentless pursuit of chasing upgrades will be a key part of certainly next year."