Focus on ... predicting the future
Ferrari's victory ahead of the summer break was exactly what this year's title race needed. After four strong races for Mercedes between Montreal and Silverstone, the pendulum swung back in favour of Ferrari at the Hungaroring.
Not only did the result mean title rivals Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel finished the first half of the season with four wins each, it also stuck to this season's trend of Ferrari having the edge at slow-speed circuits and Mercedes being the team to beat at high-speed tracks. With that in mind, it's possible to look at the remaining races and make an educated guess (nothing more) as to who should have the more competitive package at each round.
On balance, Mercedes appears to have the advantage over the remaining nine races. The next two rounds in particular should suit the W08 and if Hamilton can regain the championship lead from Vettel at those races, he will have a solid footing to take his fourth world title heading into the flyaways at the end of the year. But fail to seize the advantage and Vettel will have the upper hand knowing that Singapore, a track similar in nature to Monaco and Budapest, comes next. Combined with Vettel's 14-point lead over Hamilton in the drivers' championship (not to mention his 33-point gap over Bottas), the pressure is on Mercedes to deliver at the next two rounds.
Of course, there is a threat from a third team. Ever since the Spanish Grand Prix in May, Red Bull has developed at a faster rate than the lead two teams and updates in Hungary showed good potential. If Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen become regular podium contenders in the remaining nine races, a bad weekend for the top two teams will become even more costly.
Finally, reliability issues have the potential to scupper the best laid plans over the next nine races. Last year's Malaysian Grand Prix will stick in the back of Hamilton's mind for all the wrong reasons, while Ferrari will be monitoring the health of Vettel's remaining turbochargers, which have been in rotation since the Spanish Grand Prix and are the last he has before being hit with a ten-place grid penalty.
Success may well rest on minimising errors rather than maximising performance, but don't expect either team to hold back. This is the first inter-team battle for the championship since Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel went head-to-head in 2012, and both Ferrari and Mercedes have a big point to prove by winning it.
In need of a win
With a new contract in his pocket, the pressure is off Kimi Raikkonen to prove himself to Ferrari, so for once we won't include him in this section. Instead, the pressure is on the other Finn. Valtteri Bottas had a good first half to the season, but if he is to remain in the championship fight he needs to stake his claim -- and fast. The on-track position swap in Hungary showed Mercedes is still committed to an even playing field between its drivers, but the fact he was significantly slower than Hamilton will not have gone unnoticed. Ferrari will undoubtedly back Vettel when it needs to and if Bottas fails to prove he is a contender for the title soon, Mercedes is likely to do the same with Hamilton.
In need of points
Rumours that Jolyon Palmer would be replaced after the summer break were wide of the mark, but if he has any hope of retaining his drive for 2018 the Renault driver needs to do something special in the second half of the year. He spent his time away from the paddock climbing Mount Kilimanjaro, but he will face a much bigger challenge in order to keep his place on the F1 grid in 2018.
ESPN prediction
The smart money is on Mercedes this weekend, but Spa-Francorchamps is rarely predictable. So after a strong performance in Hungary and with rain in the air over the Ardennes, we are backing Kimi Raikkonen to celebrate his new Ferrari contract with a fifth career victory at Spa.
Betting
Lewis Hamilton is the favourite to win in Spa with odds of 4/6 ahead of teammate Valtteri Bottas at 7/2. Sebastian Vettel is tempting at 4/1 and if you believe what you've just read, Kimi Raikkonen is worth a punt at 10/1. FP1 is often a good time to test updates rather than focus on fastest times, so odds of Raikkonen to top the session at 9/1 and Daniel Ricciardo at 10/1 are also tempting. Similar odds of 9/1 will also see a decent return on either of the McLaren drivers being the first to retire.
Weather
Forecasts at Spa-Francorchamps are rarely worth the paper they are written on, but this weekend looks set to stay remarkably dry. That shouldn't be mistaken for warm weather (temperatures are unlikely to break 25C) but the first spots of rain are not due to hit the circuit until after the race has finished on Sunday evening ... but don't be surprised if there is an unexpected downpour during Friday's first practice session.
Tyres
Compounds: Ultra-soft, super-soft, soft
The circuit from a tyre point of view
Longest circuit of the year at 7.004 kilometres.
Geographical layout means it can be raining on one part of the track but dry on another.
Elevation changes and compressions generate forces on tyres from all directions.
Compromise set - up needed to provide downforce in corners but not too much drag.
High speeds and big corners place significant energy loads through the tyres.
Overtaking is ver y possible at Spa, opening the door to a variety of different strategies .
The teams have nominated all three available compounds in their choices rather than concentrating on the softer tyres.
Mario Isloa, head of car racing: "Pirelli was racing at Spa for the 24 Hours last month, which showcased everything this circuit is famous for: changeable weather, unpredictable competition, and heavy demands on the tyres. Now that we are bringing the ultrasoft tyre there for Formula One, we would expect those demand s to increase further with the latest generation of cars: two stops would appear to be a likely strategy but we will know more after the first free practice sessions. Working out the optimal race strategy is especially tricky at Spa as it has to be flexibl e: the possibility of rain, safety cars, or even a red flag -- as we saw last year -- means that teams often have to react to changing circumstances rather than follow a fixed plan ".