Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Jul 28, 2023, 04:00 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and for how to best utilize the information contained within, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Friday's MLB games

By Todd Zola

After 22 teams enjoyed having Thursday off, everyone is back in action for a full Friday slate, with 15 evening affairs. A pair of interleague tilts bookend the schedule, with the Miami Marlins hosting the Detroit Tigers at 6:40 p.m. ET and the San Francisco Giants hosting the Boston Red Sox at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Competing teams have already begun fortifying their rosters for the playoff run. The Los Angeles Angels made the biggest splash so far by acquiring starter Lucas Giolito and with reliever Reynaldo Lopez from the Chicago White Sox. Giolito is set to make his Angels debut Friday night in Toronto. Overall, Giolito will incur a bit of a park upgrade for his remaining home games, though taking the hill in the Rogers Centre is always a challenge. The only probable starter on Friday's card rumored to be on the block is the St. Louis Cardinals' Jordan Montgomery, so there is a chance the southpaw is scratched if a deal is close.
Friday's top streaming option is Braxton Garrett (30.6% rostered in ESPN leagues), who will throw the first pitch of the day when he takes the hill in South Beach. The lefty has struggled in July, mostly with home runs, surrendering five in 18 1/3 innings this month. The spike in long balls masked an outstanding 10 strikeouts with just one walk over thas span. Not only does loanDepot Park suppress power, but the Tigers' home run rate with a lefty on the hill is a tick below average.
Bobby Miller (33.8% rostered) is ranked a couple of spots ahead of Garrett, but a date with the revamped Cincinnati Reds lineup, even in Dodgers Stadium, is riskier. Miller entered the break in a rut and his first start coming out was spotty, but he reverted to early season form in his last outing, posting a quality start against the Texas Rangers, punching out six with no free passes in six stanzas. Small sample alert, but since the break, the Reds have struggled against right-handers, recording the sixth-lowest wOBA and fifth-highest strikeout rate in this short span.
The Giants have also wallowed facing righties since returning from the midseason hiatus, sporting the 13th-worst wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate. On Friday night, Kutter Crawford (2.7%) and the Red Sox pay a rare visit to Oracle Park. Crawford has been inconsistent, but he has a 3.82 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last six outings with a palatable 28 punch-outs in those 30 2/3 frames. Coming off a travel day, Crawford won't be extended since the newly revamped and effective bullpen will be refreshed.
The Colorado Rockies host the Oakland Athletics this weekend. One of the advantages of a lesser offense visiting Coors Field is most of the lineup is available, including those hitters in the top portion of the lineup. Often, fantasy managers must settle for hitters in the bottom portion of the lineup to take advantage of the altitude. With lefty Kyle Freeland on the hill, the first four batters in the probable Athletics lineup -- Zack Gelof (3%), Jordan Diaz (0.1%), Brent Rooker (13.3%) and Ramon Laureano (2%) -- all bat right-handed.
Busch Stadium is a nice swerve from Coors Field, with the Cardinals right-handed contingent facing Drew Smyly. Smyly may serve as the primary pitcher, but Dylan Carlson (2.6%), Jordan Walker (37.8%), Tyler O'Neill (17.8%) and Paul DeJong (2.3%) are all in great spots.

Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
16.8	Max Scherzer	R	WSH	99.3%	-195	8.5	70%	6.5	1.9	6.8
13.5	Cristian Javier	R	TB	91.2%	-110	8.5	56%	5.7	2.0	6.6
12.7	Zack Wheeler	R	@PIT	99.0%	-160	8.5	57%	6.0	2.4	6.3
12.2	Joe Musgrove	R	TEX	93.0%	-165	8	60%	5.8	2.4	6.1
12.0	Gerrit Cole	R	@BAL	99.9%	-125	8.5	49%	6.0	2.9	6.8
11.6	Logan Webb	R	BOS	98.5%	-145	7.5	57%	5.9	2.4	5.8
11.3	Kevin Gausman	R	LAA	99.7%	-195	8.5	55%	5.7	2.7	6.7
11.3	Bobby Miller	R	CIN	38.7%	-240	9.5	60%	5.5	2.3	5.6
10.8	Grayson Rodriguez	R	NYY	16.0%	105	8.5	51%	5.4	2.3	5.3
10.7	Braxton Garrett	L	DET	35.7%	-155	7.5	57%	5.2	2.0	5.1
10.7	Jordan Montgomery	L	CHC	79.5%	--	--	56%	5.6	2.4	5.2
10.4	Shane McClanahan	L	@HOU	99.8%	-110	8.5	44%	5.2	2.2	5.8
10.2	Logan Gilbert	R	@ARI	95.5%	-135	9	59%	5.6	2.7	5.5
9.8	Sonny Gray	R	@KC	83.8%	-165	9.5	57%	5.2	2.3	5.1
9.1	MacKenzie Gore	L	@NYM	19.3%	162	8.5	30%	5.1	2.2	5.6
8.5	Lucas Giolito	R	@TOR	92.3%	162	8.5	45%	5.5	3.0	5.8
8.3	Mitch Keller	R	PHI	85.7%	135	8.5	43%	5.6	2.8	5.1
8.2	Xzavion Curry	R	@CWS	0.8%	-145	10	53%	3.9	1.3	3.5
8.0	Reese Olson	R	@MIA	1.9%	130	7.5	43%	4.6	2.1	4.8
7.9	Touki Toussaint	R	CLE	0.3%	122	10	47%	5.0	2.2	4.1
7.7	Kutter Crawford	R	@SF	4.2%	122	7.5	43%	4.7	2.3	4.8
7.3	Brady Singer	R	MIN	52.2%	140	9.5	43%	5.5	3.3	5.3
7.3	Brandon Williamson	L	@LAD	2.4%	196	9.5	40%	4.8	2.3	4.5
7.3	Dane Dunning	R	@SD	32.5%	140	8	40%	5.3	2.7	4.5
7.2	Adrian Houser	R	@ATL	2.3%	158	10	52%	5.2	2.7	4.2
7.0	Yonny Chirinos	R	MIL	1.5%	-190	10	48%	4.8	2.4	4.0
6.7	Tommy Henry	L	SEA	5.3%	115	9	41%	5.1	2.8	4.6
6.2	Drew Smyly	L	@STL	15.7%	--	--	44%	4.9	2.9	4.5
5.2	JP Sears	L	@COL	11.5%	--	--	51%	5.0	3.8	4.8
2.5	Kyle Freeland	L	OAK	8.2%	--	--	49%	5.1	4.4	4.4

Bullpen usage for Friday

By Todd Zola

Emmanuel Clase allowed a couple of hits, bringing the ttng run to the plate, but he and the Cleveland Guardians outlasted the Chicago White Sox and won 6-3. Clase required 19 pitches, which comes on top of 13 used on Tuesday, giving him 32 over a three-day stretch. Clase has frequently appeared in back-to-back fashion, but it's usually after less of a previous workload, but there are instances of doing it in similar scenarios, so he can't be counted out for tonight.
David Bednar didn't pitch yesterday, but he may still need another day to recover from Wednesday's 37-pitch outing. Colin Holderman and Dauri Moreta are well-rested, hence likely to handle late-inning work for the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening.
The trade winds continue to blow in advance of Tuesday's deadline with the Miami Marlins acquiring David Robertson from the New York Mets. Robertson compiled 13 saves and seven holds with the Mets and no he'll head South where he'll probably continue to serve as a primary closer, but he'll likely cede some save chances to Marlins lefty A.J. Puk. Puk leads Miami with 15 saves, but he's going through a tough stretch with an 11.37 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over his last 6 1/3 innings. Puk fanned 12 in that span, but allowed four homers.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	7/27	P3	Rest	Strk
Emmanuel Clase	CLE	95.7%	19	32	0	1
David Bednar	PIT	81.0%	0	37	1	0

Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Brent Rooker (OAK, LF -- 13%) at Kyle Freeland
Ramon Laureano (OAK, RF -- 2%) at Freeland
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF -- 4%) vs. JP Sears
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 39%) vs. Sears
Ezequiel Tovar (COL, SS -- 10%) vs. Sears
Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 4%) at Brady Singer
Shea Langeliers (OAK, DH -- 4%) at Freeland
Jurickson Profar (COL, LF -- 9%) vs. Sears
Zack Gelof (OAK, 2B -- 3%) at Freeland
Jorge Polanco (MIN, 2B -- 44%) at Singer

Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday

Lane Thomas (WSH, LF -- 68%) at Max Scherzer
Josh Jung (TEX, 3B -- 65%) at Joe Musgrove
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS -- 91%) at Bobby Miller
Hunter Renfroe (LAA, RF -- 57%) at Kevin Gausman
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 89%) at Musgrove
Alex Verdugo (BOS, LF -- 88%) at Logan Webb
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 66%) vs. MacKenzie Gore
Jose Abreu (HOU, 1B -- 61%) vs. Shane McClanahan
Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B -- 53%) vs. Giolito
Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF -- 97%) at Musgrove

The BAT X's Best Stacks for Friday

Oakland Athletics at Freeland
Colorado Rockies vs. JP Sears
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Brandon Williamson

Prop of the day

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals 4.5 strikeouts (-180/+135)

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Singer putting up 4.5 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.5% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $23.49.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

94.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Singer falls in the 82nd percentile.
The Minnesota Twins have four hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Kauffman Stadium as the third-worst venue in the league for strikeouts.
Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the schedule today at 99°.
The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 14-mph in this match-up, the second-most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Singer's 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph decrease from last year's 93.1-mph figure.