Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

ESPN Fantasy

Sep 5, 2023, 02:00 PM

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. Game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

For an in-depth look at what to expect in this daily article and how to best use the information, check out our handy primer here.

Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

What you need to know for Tuesday's MLB games

By Derek Carty

Tuesday's slate brings one very strong streaming option at pitcher. Brandon Pfaadt's (4% rostered in ESPN leagues) 6.21 ERA has kept him off most fantasy rosters, but his 4.62 SIERA and top prospect pedigree imply that he's much better than he looks on the surface. The matchup today is fantastic against the weak and strikeout-heavy Rockies lineup outside of Coors Field. So good, in fact, that THE BAT X projects Pfaadt as the third best pitcher overall today, ahead of the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Brandon Woodruff and Framber Valdez.
If you're looking for extra volume to pad your win and strikeout totals as we head down the stretch, consider streaming Dean Kremer (26% rostered) against the injury-riddled and deconstructed Angels offense, Reid Detmers on the opposite side of that game (29%), or Jose Quintana (6%) against the Nationals.
Nathan Eovaldi (94%) is looking likely to return from the IL on Tuesday. The matchup against Houston is a very difficult one, and he's likely to be on a pitch count, given that he did not make any rehab starts. But if he happened to be dropped in your league, he's worth picking up and stashing for the stretch run. Before the injury, he was being talked about as a Cy Young contender, and he has a strong supporting offense to help him in the wins category. If you happen to already have him stashed, however, you should definitely consider benching him for this first start.
If you're in a tight race with pitching ratios, streaming relievers down the stretch could help knock a handful of points off your team's ERA. Today, the best matchup goes to the Blue Jays bullpen. They go into an extreme pitchers' park in Oakland, where they will face the worst offense in the majors with the best pitching weather on the slate. Assuming Jordan Romano (90%) is already rostered, you can still think about Jordan Hicks (8%), Trevor Richards (1%) and Yimi Garcia (1%).
The top two offenses on Tuesday's slate are the Atlanta Braves and the Seattle Mariners. Aside from J.P. Crawford (20%) and Eugenio Suarez (23%), however, there aren't a lot of great options from either team that are available in most leagues. That being said, we do have some wind blowing out at Wrigley, and both the Cubs and Giants project for nearly 6 runs, according to THE BAT X. Joc Pederson (6%), Wilmer Flores (36%), Seiya Suzuki (50%), LaMonte Wade Jr. (10%), Mike Yastrzemski (6%), Ian Happ (62%), Christopher Morel (24%), Thairo Estrada (44%) and Yan Gomes (4%) are all strong options to stream here.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: Caesars Money Line. O/U: Caesars Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.4	Gerrit Cole	R	DET	99.9%	-250	8	62%	6.0	2.5	7.0
12.3	Brandon Woodruff	R	@PIT	96.2%	-178	8.5	61%	5.6	2.3	6.4
12.3	Chris Bassitt	R	@OAK	92.2%	-190	8	63%	6.0	2.3	5.4
11.9	Jesus Luzardo	L	LAD	81.2%	135	7.5	48%	5.6	2.1	6.1
11.5	Dylan Cease	R	@KC	88.6%	100	9.5	60%	5.7	2.5	6.5
11.2	Clayton Kershaw	L	@MIA	98.5%	-160	7.5	52%	5.2	1.8	5.1
11.1	Zach Eflin	R	BOS	90.0%	-165	8	52%	5.4	2.2	5.5
10.7	Michael Soroka	R	STL	2.4%	--	--	62%	5.7	2.4	4.9
10.2	Tanner Bibee	R	MIN	61.3%	-105	8	57%	5.5	2.7	6.0
10.1	Bryce Miller	R	@CIN	42.3%	-160	10.5	55%	5.3	2.5	5.4
9.8	Connor Phillips	R	SEA	1.7%	135	10.5	45%	5.2	2.5	6.1
9.3	Dean Kremer	R	@LAA	35.9%	-160	8.5	56%	5.7	2.8	5.2
9.3	Michael Lorenzen	R	@SD	35.9%	-110	8.5	57%	5.6	2.5	4.8
9.2	Brandon Pfaadt	R	COL	6.6%	-210	9	50%	5.5	2.9	5.5
9.1	Jose Quintana	L	@WSH	9.8%	-140	9	60%	5.4	2.5	4.7
9.1	Kyle Hendricks	R	SF	17.3%	-145	11	52%	5.6	2.6	4.5
9.0	Kutter Crawford	R	@TB	5.4%	140	8	48%	4.8	2.1	5.0
8.8	Sonny Gray	R	@CLE	92.7%	-115	8	43%	5.2	2.4	5.2
8.7	Reid Detmers	L	BAL	29.0%	135	8	44%	5.2	2.5	5.1
8.5	Ken Waldichuk	L	TOR	1.2%	158	8	37%	5.2	2.4	4.7
8.3	Sean Manaea*	L	@CHC	14.9%	122	11	48%	5.3	2.8	5.1
8.2	Brady Singer	R	CWS	54.5%	-120	9.5	40%	5.7	3.1	5.0
8.1	Framber Valdez	L	@TEX	99.2%	-110	9	58%	5.8	3.5	5.8
7.4	Miles Mikolas	R	@ATL	20.4%	--	--	38%	5.6	3.1	4.6
7.1	Pedro Avila	R	PHI	0.7%	-110	8.5	43%	4.7	2.4	4.3
6.8	Alex Faedo	R	@NYY	1.0%	205	8	38%	4.9	2.7	4.6
6.6	Kyle Freeland	L	@ARI	6.4%	175	9	50%	5.5	3.2	4.3
6.6	Andre Jackson	R	MIL	1.0%	150	8.5	39%	4.5	2.3	4.3
6.3	Nathan Eovaldi	R	HOU	94.0%	-110	9	42%	5.4	3.5	5.1
5.9	Patrick Corbin	L	NYM	3.8%	118	9	40%	5.4	3.3	4.6

Bullpen update for Tuesday

By Todd Zola

For the fifth time all season, and second time in eight days, Jordan Romano recorded more than three outs yesterday in the Blue Jays' 6-5 win over the A's in 10 innings. Romano entered the bottom of ninth with one out and a runner on first. He retired the next two hitters, then his offense staked him to a three-run lead when he came out for the 10th. Romano gave two of those back, but the Blue Jays hung on. Romano appeared for the second straight day and third time this month. The 23 pitches he threw on Monday give him 35 since Sunday and 40 since Friday. There are a few occurrences of closers appearing on three straight days, but Romano has not done it, so the safe play is benching him today. Jordan Hicks did not pitch yesterday, so he's well rested and the logical fill-in.
Paul Sewald collected his ninth save since being acquired by the Diamondbacks and 30th overall on Tuesday. He wasn't especially sharp, yielding a run to the Rockies in the 4-2 win, using 26 pitches in the process. However, Sewald was appearing with two days of rest, giving him just two outings over the past nine days, so he should be able to pitch again today if needed.
Despite leading the Rays by four runs, the Red Sox called upon Kenley Jansen in a non-save situation to lock down the first game of their three-game set in Tropicana Field. Jansen delivered and needed only eight pitches to retire the side. However, Jansen tossed 21 pitches on Sunday, so his availability for tonight's contest is in jeopardy. The veteran has yet to pitch on three consecutive days this season, so the safe play is moving him to reserve. Chris Martin also appeared yesterday, but he got through his frame on just 13 pitches, and was working with four days of rest, so he's the likeliest option to handle ninth inning duties in Game 2.
David Bednar recorded his 32nd save in a 13-pitch effort yesterday, locking down the Pirates' 4-2 home victory against the Brewers. It was Bednar's third outing in September, as he appeared on the first two days of the month. The 40 pitches he' ha tossed since Friday jeopardize his availability for tonight's contest. Colin Holderman is the best candidate to pick up. He has surrendered just two earned runs over his last 19 2/3 innings, spanning 20 appearances. Holderman aptly garnered his 24th hold yesterday, but he should be able to come back today since he threw just eight pitches and was working with two days of rest.

Relief Pitcher Usage Chart

This chart lists the pitchers rostered in at least 50% of ESPN leagues who have been most heavily used recently, signaling they might be unavailable today. Rst% is the player's ESPN roster percentage; the listed date is the pitcher's pitch count from the previous day; P3 is the pitcher's total pitch count from the previous three days; Rest is the pitcher's days of rest; Strk is the number of consecutive days the pitcher has worked.

Pitcher	Team	Rst%	9/4	P3	Strk
Jordan Romano	TOR	89.7%	23	35	2
Paul Sewald	ARI	62.9%	26	26	1
Kenley Jansen	BOS	74.9%	8	29	2
David Bednar	PIT	82.8%	13	37	1

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Joc Pederson (SF, LF -- 6%) at Kyle Hendricks
Mitch Haniger (SF, RF -- 6%) at Hendricks
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF -- 46%) vs. Alex Faedo
Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 37%) at Connor Phillips
Jake Fraley (CIN, LF -- 22%) vs. Bryce Miller
Francisco Alvarez (NYM, DH -- 20%) at Patrick Corbin
LaMonte Wade Jr. (SF, RF -- 10%) at Hendricks
Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 50%) vs. Sean Manaea
J.P. Crawford (SEA, SS -- 22%) at Phillips
Andrew Benintendi (CHW, LF -- 16%) at Brady Singer

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, 2B -- 70%) vs. Clayton Kershaw
Daulton Varsho (TOR, C -- 78%) at Ken Waldichuk
Jonah Heim (TEX, C -- 75%) vs. Framber Valdez
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B -- 85%) at Reid Detmers
Josh Bell (MIA, 1B -- 62%) vs. Kershaw
Andres Gimenez (CLE, 2B -- 53%) vs. Sonny Gray
Justin Turner (BOS, 3B -- 92%) at Zach Eflin
Anthony Santander (BAL, RF -- 90%) at Detmers
Tommy Edman (STL, 2B -- 74%) at Michael Soroka
Masataka Yoshida (BOS, LF -- 93%) at Eflin

The BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday

Prop of the day

Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels: Over/Under 5.5 strikeouts (-110/-115)

PREDICTION

THE BAT sees Detmers putting up 7.0 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 73.1% of the time.
THE BAT believes there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $43.59.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER

Doug Eddings projects as a huge pitchers' umpire and is scheduled to call pitches today.
The No. 1 park in the league for boosting strikeouts, according to THE BAT, is Angel Stadium.
According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the third-most suitable for pitching of the day.
Detmers' fastball velocity has jumped 1.4 mph this season (93.9 mph) over where it was last year (92.5 mph).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER

The Orioles have eight bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against Detmers in this matchup.
Over his past three starts, Detmers has seen a substantial decrease in his fastball velocity, from 93.8 mph over the entire season to 92.7 mph lately.