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          Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Tuesday's MLB games

          The numbers might not suggest it, but a deeper dive says Patrick Sandoval is a worthy streamer Tuesday. Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
          • Mike Sheets
          May 7, 2024, 02:22 PM

          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

          Don't be afraid

          Sometimes looks can be deceiving. Patrick Sandoval (2% rostered in ESPN leagues) may sport an ugly 5.91 ERA and 1.69 WHIP for the Los Angeles Angels, but those numbers don't paint a complete picture. Looking deeper, there are plenty of reasons to look past the surface-level stats and employ the southpaw as a streamer Tuesday versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

          First off, Sandoval's 3.82 xERA suggests he deserves much better in the ERA department. His 3.18 FIP and 3.67 xFIP tell a similar story. While a seven-run blowup against the Cincinnati Reds in mid-April may be the outing that most fantasy managers recall, the lefty has actually been relatively consistent, limiting opposing teams to three or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts. Sandoval also offers nice strikeout upside, as he's fanning 10.7 batters per nine innings, fueled by a 10-strikeout performance versus the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out.

          Then there's the fact that Sandoval has been one of baseball's unluckiest pitchers this year. His .396 BABIP is the second-highest mark in baseball among pitchers with 30 or more innings, while his 57.5% LOB% is second-lowest. Both should begin to normalize in the coming weeks and month, which will positively affect his fantasy ratios.

          Against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, Sandoval should continue trending in the right direction. The Pirates' lineup has done next to nothing against lefties this season, stumbling to a 65 wRC+. They're also whiffing at a 27.5% K% clip against southpaws, ranking them third-worst in baseball. In short, Sandoval shouldn't have much trouble getting it done in this matchup, so stream away.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          By Todd Zola

          • Milwaukee Brewers SP Freddy Peralta dropped his appeal and began serving his five game suspension on Monday. He received the punishment for throwing at Tampa Bay Rays OF Jose Siri. Peralta pitched on Sunday, then conveniently accepted the terms during a week the Brewers don't have any off days. In the current environment, there are more starts made on five days of rest than four. However, the Brewers will need someone to pitch on Thursday, with rookie Robert Gasser a possibility.

          • The Oakland Athletics placed RHP Joe Boyle on the 15-day IL due to lower back strain. He's been trying to pitch through the issue, but on Monday the club decided to let him heal. The Athletics have a doubleheader tomorrow, then will set their rotation for the second half of the week based on who is available.

          • Braxton Garrett, who was initially scheduled for his 2024 debut with the Miami Marlins last night, instead logged another rehab start with the purpose of building his pitch count up to 75. It was with the rookie-level Florida Complex Affiliate, so treat the 13-K effort over 5 2/3 shutout innings accordingly, with the key being Garrett should make his inaugural 2024 start at home facing the Philadelphia Phillies this weekend, with the expectation he can toss around 85 pitches.

          • Updating some injury notes from yesterday, as expected, Texas Rangers OF Wyatt Langford and Cleveland Guardians OF Steven Kwan were both put on the 10-day IL due to hamstring issues. The recovery for both is expected to be around four weeks, with Langford having the better chance to return a little sooner.

          • It was assumed that after he returned from an oblique injury incurred in spring training, Jhoan Duran would be the Minnesota Twins' regular closer. He collected a save in both of his first two outings, then was used in the eighth inning in his last pair, garnering a hold in each. It appears that manager Rocco Baldelli will use a matchup approach. Last night, Duran was tasked with retiring Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez in the eighth, then southpaw Caleb Thielbar was brought in for the ninth to garner the save. Thielbar faced two switch-hitters, Jorge Polanco and Cal Raleigh, with both being historically more productive from the left side.

          • Those scrambling to roster Daniel Hudson were disappointed when the Los Angeles Dodgers turned to Alex Vesia last night for the club's first save since regular closer Evan Phillips was placed on the IL. This could be another matchup scenario with the left-handed Vesia potentially facing Miami's lefty swinging Jesus Sanchez and Nick Gordon, scheduled to bat first and third in the ninth. Ultimately, right-handed hitters Dane Myers and Emmanuel Rivera pinch-hit, but Dave Roberts likely assumed those moves would happen and preferred Vesia to face them as opposed to Hudson versus the lefties.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Another hurler with an ERA north of 5.00, Logan Allen (8% rostered) also belongs in the streamer conversation. He has been the victim of a tough schedule, facing the Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves and New York Yankees in three of his last four turns. Fortunately, the schedule softens up Tuesday when the Detroit Tigers come to town. The Tigers rank 24th in baseball with a 91 wRC+, and their bottom-10 strikeout rate comes in at 24%. That's enough to take a shot on Allen, who will also get the benefit of pitching at Progressive Field, a venue that significantly suppresses power.

          • It might surprise you to learn that Seth Lugo (61%) has been a top-10 fantasy starter this season, according to the ESPN Player Rater. Through seven starts, the 34-year-old owns a 5-1 record with a 1.60 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 45 frames. He has allowed more than two earned runs in a start just once in 2024. As a low-strikeout hurler without great stuff (Eno Sarris' stuff+ model grades him as roughly average), Lugo is unlikely to continue this level of success. Even so, he has logged three consecutive seasons of ERAs in the 3.50-3.60 range, so he can still provide value. Regression is on the horizon, though, and it may start Tuesday against the Milwaukee Brewers, whose 117 wRC+ is second-best in baseball, behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers.

          • After being forced to leave his last start on April 26 with a hamstring injury, Zac Gallen is lined up to take the mound against the Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday. Although Great American Ballpark is one of the game's most hitter-friendly venues, the Reds have been one of the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching, sporting a 69 wRC+ that ranks 29th in MLB. Go ahead and get Gallen back into your starting lineups.

          • Joe Musgrove was scheduled to start for the San Diego Padres on Tuesday but has since landed on the injured list with right triceps tendinitis. Initial reports suggest he may miss only a couple of starts, but for now the Padres will turn to Randy Vazquez to step into the rotation and start against the Chicago Cubs. Vazquez isn't an arm we want to target for fantasy purposes, but we do want to target Cubs bats against him. The righty has surrendered a .373 wOBA to left-handed batters in his brief big-league career, creating favorable spots for Ian Happ (71%), Michael Busch (45%), Mike Tauchman (10%) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (6%) as streaming/DFS options.

          • Betting tip of the day: Today we're targeting Shota Imanaga, who has been one of baseball's top pitchers this season. The left-hander boasts a 26.5% strikeout rate through his first six starts, and he's squaring off against a Washington Nationals lineup that's fanning at a 24.7% clip versus lefties. Taking over 4.5 strikeouts (-150) should pay off, and there's even better value at over 5.5 Ks (+140).

          It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday