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Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication
Heating up in the desert
Through May 31, the Arizona Diamondbacks were a season-low seven games below .500. Four long months remained, but there was work to be done if they club wanted a chance to defend its 2023 National League championship.
Entering Saturday's action, the Diamondbacks sat a season-high 11 games above .500. They held the second NL wild-card spot and were just 3.5 games behind the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
Much of the credit belongs to the Diamondbacks offense, as they lead the league in runs per game. No, that is not a typo. Heading into Saturday's slate, the Diamondbacks' 5.14 runs per game lead MLB, followed by the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees, both at 5.09 runs per game.
Arizona has needed just about all of those runs with a pitching staff sporting the sixth-worst ERA in the majors. However, the makeshift rotation recently got a boost from Eduardo Rodriguez, and steady Merrill Kelly is slated to come off the IL on Sunday to take the hill for the first time since April 15.
Kelly has been out with a teres major strain in his right shoulder. After making 63 combined starts over the past two years, Kelly logged just four this season before being sidelined. With seven weeks left, there is still plenty of time for Kelly to ramp up and contribute to a hopeful postseason run.
Kelly is more reliable than dominant, though last season he posted a personal-best 25.9% strikeout rate. His forte is keeping hitters off balance, preventing barrels, hence limiting homers. Last Tuesday, the righty tossed four innings in a rehab start with High-A Hillsboro. Kelly threw 62 pitches (38 strikes, 61.2%) and fanned a pair with no walks.
Don't expect Kelly to pitch deep into games right away, especially in his return facing the Philadelphia Phillies at home. However, he logged at least six frames in 19 of his 30 starts last season and in each of his first three this season. Innings are an overlooked component of points-league scoring.
Even without having taken a major league mound for almost four months, Kelly is only available in one-third of ESPN leagues. That could increase since he will no longer be eligible to be stashed on the fantasy IL. After Sunday's outing, Kelly merits roster consideration in deeper leagues, especially if the offensive support remains at a high pace.
What you may have missed on Saturday
It appears that Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte has avoided a serious injury after a collision at second base in last night's game with the Philadelphia Phillies. Marte was covering the bag as Phillies C Garrett Stubbs was hustling for a double. Stubbs slid head first into second but overshot the bag and his head and shoulder hit Marte's left knee, buckling his leg. Marte was diagnosed with a bruised left ankle and did not undergo any imaging. Marte is expected to miss today's affair but expects to be back on Monday. Diamondbacks SP Zac Gallen managed to throw only 4 1/3 innings last night before exiting due to body cramps. Gallen is expected to make his next start.
Los Angeles Dodgers SP River Ryan left last night's start after tossing 4 2/3 shutout frames. He threw a pitch mid at bat and called for the trainer. Ryan was escorted off the field and was diagnosed with right forearm tightness. Ryan is expected to undergo evaluation over the next few days. He's likely ticketed for an IL visit, the length of which is unclear. The Dodgers have been using a six-man rotation for most of the season. Ace SP Tyler Glasnow has made 21 starts, but only one was with fewer than five days of rest. The club has seven games next week, so they'll either switch to a five-man rotation and pitch everyone on four days' rest or use Landon Knack or Justin Wrobleski in the rotation. Knack is expected to be recalled today but it's unclear If he'll function as a starter or reliever.
Texas Rangers SP Nathan Eovaldi was lifted early from the opener of yesterday's doubleheader with the New York Yankees. Eovaldi tossed just three frames before leaving with right side tightness. The veteran was hit hard, allowing three runs on six hits. There was no word whether his performance was affected by his injury. Eovaldi's status for his next start is up in the air. · The St. Louis Cardinals were without SS Masyn Wynn on Saturday as their rookie was under the weather with a cold. The club has a rare Sunday off. The anticipation is for Wynn to return to the lineup on Monday.
Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams missed his second straight game last night as he continued to experience back issues. Abrams will be held out of today's lineup, then will garner another day to deal with the club off until Tuesday. Not only do the Nationals hope the days off will help Abrams heal, but they also serve as a mental break as he's been in a rut, posting a .165/.212/.266 line since the break.
As expected, San Francisco Giants RHP Ryan Walker collected the first save chance after erstwhile closer Camilo Doval was sent to Triple-A. Walker converted for his first save of the season.
Everything else you need to know for Sunday
The early start returns with an 11:35 a.m. ET first pitch at Nationals Park with the Washington Nationals hosting the Los Angeles Angels. The Sunday night ESPN affair features the Seattle Mariners entertaining the New York Mets.
Sunday's top-ranked streamer happens to be Kelly's mound foe, as Cristopher Sanchez (36.0% rostered in ESPN leagues) will get the nod for the Phillies. However, this feels like a trap game, as Sanchez has been inconsistent lately, and fueling the Diamondbacks' league-leading scoring is a low strikeout rate. Especially in head-to-head leagues, this is a risky way to capture points on the last day of the transaction period.
Next up is San Francisco Giants RHP Hayden Birdsong (12.1% rostered) for his home date with the Detroit Tigers. Over his first six career outings, Birdsong posted a 2.97 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with an impressive 38 punchouts in 30 1/3 frames. That said, he issued 15 walks while yielding four homers during that span, portending tougher times. Sure enough, the rookie was hit hard last time out, surrendering seven runs to the Washington Nationals in just two innings. With the Tigers and the league's fifth-lowest wOBA facing righties on the docket, Birdsong is in a great spot to right his wings.
After the Baltimore Orioles reinforced their rotation at the deadline, it appeared that swingman Albert Suarez was headed back to his long relief role. However, after SP Grayson Rodriguez was placed on the IL, Suarez remains in the rotation and has a Sunday start in St. Petersburg on tap. Suarez will take on a Tampa Bay Rays lineup sporting the 10th-lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate since the break with a righty on the hill.
Betting Tip of the Day: The Rocky Mountain forecast calls for hot and humid conditions at Coors Field, fueling the highest expected runs total on the Sunday slate. The Colorado Rockies will give the ball to LHP Kyle Freeland. All nine of Freeland's homers surrendered this season have come courtesy of a right-handed batter. Atlanta Braves RHB Marcell Ozuna excels with the platoon advantage, so I'll take the over on Ozuna and 3.5 Total Hits + Runs + RBIs (+135).
Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday
Reliever report
To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Hitting report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.
Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Jorge Soler (ATL, RF -- 49%) at Kyle Freeland
Adam Duvall (ATL, CF -- 1%) at Freeland
Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH, 2B -- 32%) vs. Jack Kochanowicz
Travis d'Arnaud (ATL, C -- 11%) at Freeland
Orlando Arcia (ATL, SS -- 9%) at Freeland
Charlie Blackmon (COL, RF -- 6%) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
Whit Merrifield (ATL, 2B -- 3%) at Freeland
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY, RF -- 30%) vs. Andrew Heaney
Keibert Ruiz (WSH, C -- 45%) vs. Kochanowicz
Ernie Clement (TOR, SS -- 3%) vs. JP Sears
Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday
Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 78%) vs. Andrew Heaney
Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 62%) at Luis Castillo
Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B -- 98%) at Castillo
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY, CF -- 89%) vs. Heaney
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 70%) at Merrill Kelly
Brent Rooker (OAK, RF -- 87%) at Chris Bassitt
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 78%) at Kelly
Gunnar Henderson (BAL, 3B -- 100%) at Jeffrey Springs
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 50%) at Tyler Glasnow
Brandon Nimmo (NYM, CF -- 90%) at Castillo