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          Fantasy baseball advice for Tuesday: Baz, Parker top streamers

          Shane Baz projects to be one of the top-ranked streaming options for Tuesday's slate as he faces the streaky Red Sox. AP Photo/Derik Hamilton
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 17, 2024, 02:32 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Down year for Miller

          Heading into the season, Los Angeles Dodgers RHP Bobby Miller was considered a top 20 fantasy starting pitcher. He was rostered in 94% of ESPN leagues when he made his first start on March 29. Miller's team managers were giddy after the sophomore punched out 11 in six scoreless innings, walking just one while yielding only two hits.

          Miller, 25, struggled in the ensuing two outings, surrendering seven earned runs on nine hits in 5⅔ frames. He fanned seven but issued five free passes and served up two home runs. Miller was then placed on the 15-day IL with shoulder soreness, perhaps explaining his subpar efforts.

          The right-hander returned in mid-June but continued to have issues with command and control. He was demoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City after four starts. Despite continuing to pitch poorly, Miller was called up in mid-August because the Dodgers were desperate for healthy arms.

          Unfortunately, it has been more of the same. In five outings since being brought up, Miller recorded an 8.28 and 1.52 ERA. He has registered a tepid 23 strikeouts in 25 innings, while walking 11 and giving up a whopping 10 home runs.

          The long ball has been an issue. Miller has served up at least one homer in every MLB start this season since his sparkling opener. Miller's 2.83 HR/9 is the highest mark among every pitcher throwing at least 50 innings since 2019. Subtracting his first start and Miller's 3.2 HR/9 is the second-worst ever among pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings.

          Command isn't Miller's only problem; he has struggled with control. He walked batters at a 6.3% clip last year. That's ballooned to 11.9%, and it was even higher on the farm.

          Miller's velocity is still above average, but it's down at least 1 mph across the board. His spin rate also lags the levels of his rookie year. Miller is throwing more four-seam fastballs and changeups while cutting back on sinker and slider usage.

          Miller reportedly hurt his left knee in a late August start. That might help explain his two terrible September efforts, but Miller was pitching poorly before the knee issue.

          This is speculation, but putting everything together, it appears that Miller is either still hurt (shoulder, knee or both) or is hesitant to throw with the same ferocity as pre-shoulder injury. He has backed off using the higher torque sinker and slider.

          With only two weeks left in the season, there is no reason to believe Miller will suddenly revert to his old form. Conventional wisdom is to largely ignore spring training. Miller is going to be an exception, but not for results. Miller's velocity and pitch distribution will be intriguing.

          As for Tuesday, a matchup facing the Miami Marlins is appealing, but the safe play is avoiding temptation. Look elsewhere for pitching down the stretch.

          What you may have missed on Monday

          • San Diego Padres 2B Luis Arraez seemingly hurt his lower body sliding into home plate in the fifth inning. The DH stayed in and clubbed a double in the seventh but was replaced by a pinch runner after he gingerly took second base. The nature and extent of Arraez's injury is unclear. Earlier in the game, he struck out for the first time since August 10.

          • The Houston Astros played shorthanded last night with both OF Ben Gamel and 1B Jon Singleton unable to play. Gamel hurt his knee on Saturday and will reportedly be placed on the 10-day IL today. Jason Heyward is the likely substitute. Singleton missed his second straight game due to an illness. Regular C Yainer Diaz shifted to first base with Victor Caratini filling in behind the plate. It's unknown how long Singleton will be out.

          • The St. Louis Cardinals were hopeful that C Willson Contreras would return before the end of the season but yesterday they announced he's done for the year. Contreras' fractured right finger was looked at yesterday and he still needs at least two weeks before resuming baseball activities. Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera will finish the season as the Cardinals' backstop duo.

          • The Los Angeles Angels were down a couple of starters last night with 2B Brandon Drury and OF Mickey Moniak unable to play in the 8-4 loss to the Chicago White Sox. Drury missed his fourth consecutive contest as he's still experiencing hamstring tightness. His return date remains up in the air. Moniak was hit in the hand by a pitch on Sunday. Imaging came back clean, but Moniak was held out. His timetable is also unclear.

          • In other Angels news, OF Mike Trout revealed he'd be receptive towards moving to a corner outfield spot or serving as the Angels DH next season. He's progressing well in his recovery from a second surgery on his left meniscus and is expected to be 100% in the spring. Let the fear of missing out begin!

          • New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor missed last night's 2-1, 10-inning win over the Washington Nationals due to lingering back soreness. He had an MRI earlier in the day which showed no structural damage. Lindor is expected to return before the end of the season, perhaps as soon as later this week.

          • The Nationals were also without their shortstop in their loss to the Mets as CJ Abrams sat for the fourth game in a row. He's still nursing some left shoulder soreness. Abrams is day-to-day. Nasim Nunez has been filling in.

          • The Pittsburgh Pirates held out SS/OF Oneil Cruz from last night's game after he hurt his ankle on Sunday. Cruz is listed as day-to-day, with OF Billy Cook as the likely replacement until his return.

          Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

          • Tuesday's 15-game ledger commences at 6:35 p.m. ET with an interleague affair in Camden Yards between the Baltimore Orioles and San Francisco Giants. It portends to be a low-scoring game with the Giants giving the nod to LHP Blake Snell while the O's will give the ball to RHP Albert Suarez. Suarez (10.7% rostered in ESPN leagues) has performed well as a swingman. Last time out, he limited the Boston Red Sox to one run in six innings at Fenway Park. Two starts prior, Suarez stifled the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field, yielding only two earned runs in seven innings. The Giants have a below-average lineup facing right-handers, in part due to an above-average strikeout rate. There is risk, but Suarez is in play as a deeper league streamer.

          • Tuesday's top-ranked option to spot start is Tampa Bay RHP Shane Baz (13.3%) when the Rays entertain the Red Sox.

          • The Red Sox's offense facing right-handers is streaky, due to their proclivity to strike out. Baz has quietly pitched well since making his 2024 debut in early July, but he's not missing as many bats as usual. Baz's high ranking can't be ignored, but this start carries more risk than a typical hurler landing in the top 10.

          • Next up is Washington Nationals LHP Mitchell Parker for his road matchup with the New York Mets. This feels like another trap game as Parker will be challenged by a team with playoff aspirations. Parker has posted a crisp 3.38 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over his last five starts, fanning 29 in 26⅔ innings, but this still feels like an outing better suited for DFS or prop bets than for traditional fantasy.

          • Parker will be opposed by Mets RHP Tylor Megill (2.0% rostered). Even though Megill is ranked a few spots lower than his mound foe, he checks more of the streaming box. The Nationals wOBA this season facing righties is below average, but they've promoted a couple of their top outfield prospects.

          • Betting tip of the day: Tonight, the Rockies host the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 11.5 run total is by far the highest on the board. Injuries have forced the Diamondbacks to return LHP Jordan Montgomery and his 6.44 ERA to the rotation. RHB Brendan Rodgers has generally fared well with the platoon edge, especially at home. Back Rodgers over 2.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+105).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Tuesday