The long ball just isn't as prevalent as it used to be. In 2014, there were 4,186 home runs hit between all 30 teams combined. That's 475 fewer homers than 2013, and a whopping 748 fewer than 2012. Over those three seasons, the number of sluggers who have eclipsed 30 home runs has dropped from 27 in 2012 to 14 in 2013 to 11 last year. The verdict is in: Power numbers across major league baseball aren't dwindling, they're plummeting.
Meanwhile, fantasy owners are left wandering the power-starved landscape, searching for premium power bats that will still be available in the later rounds. As the stats above indicate, that's not nearly as easy as it used to be. Fortunately, help is on the way. Is it a bird? Is it a plane? No, it's Minnesota Twins outfielder Oswaldo Arcia.
What Arcia brings to the table
Checking in at 6-foot-0, 225 pounds, Arcia has power and plenty of it. He clubbed 20 home runs in 2014, a feat he accomplished in only 372 at-bats (a wrist injury forced him to miss time in the season's first half). He finished with a .220 isolated power (ISO) mark, which ranked top 10 in the American League (the average ISO last year among qualifiers was .150). That lines up well with his minor league numbers, as his ISO between Double- and Triple-A never fell below .229. He also upped his fly-ball rate from 40.6 percent in 2013 to 41.9 percent last year, a mark that ranked in the top 15 of the AL.
Those are all good indicators of Arcia's power potential. However, what's perhaps most telling about his power isn't that he belted 20 home runs in just 372 at-bats, but rather, the quality of those 20 home runs. ESPN.com has a handy little tool called the Home Run Tracker that divides every home run into one of four categories: No Doubt, Plenty, Just Enoughs and Lucky Homers. Fifty percent of Arcia's 20 dingers last year were of the "No Doubt" variety.
That was the highest percentage in baseball, tied with Edwin Encarnacion (17 of his 34 homers were "No Doubters"). Additionally, only 10 percent of Arcia's 20 homers fell into the "Just Enough" category (and none were "Lucky"). By comparison, big power bats like Nelson Cruz, Chris Carter and Jose Abreu all hit at least 33 percent "Just Enough" homers last year. Sure, all home runs count the same no matter how far they're hit, but considering Arcia plays half of his games at Target Field, a venue that is not kind to left-handed power hitters, this is a very good sign for his future power production.
Given that Arcia is generally being drafted as a fifth outfielder in standard, 10-team leagues (and sometimes not even being drafted at all), it's safe to say that most fantasy owners are simply lumping him in as one of the cheap power guys. On one hand, being available at a cheap price on draft day is a good thing. On the other hand, it's a somewhat damning designation. After all, cheap power is "cheap" for a reason. But here's the good news: There's reason to believe Arcia will be much more than just a cheap source of power this season.
Before we talk about the reasons for optimism surrounding Arcia in 2015, let's first discuss the elephant in the room: The young slugger swings and misses ... a lot. In both 2013 and 2014, Arcia whiffed 31 percent of the time in the big leagues. There's no way to put a positive spin on that. That's hacker territory. Among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances, Arcia's 31 percent whiff rate was the ninth-worst mark in baseball last year. He also has struggled against left-handed pitchers in 2014, batting just .198/.261/.313 against them, which could eventually land him in a platoon, if he's not careful.
There are, however, a few important things to keep in mind here. First, Arcia is only 23 years old. Second, he moved through the upper minors quickly, spending only 69 games at Double-A and 60 at Triple-A. In other words, during his limited time in the majors, he essentially has been asked to learn on the job. So even though his power clearly already plays in the big leagues, it's not surprising that the rest of his game is taking a little longer to catch up.
Arcia's minor league numbers suggest better things should be in store. He was actually a .314 hitter during his minor league career, which includes a .321 clip between Double- and Triple-A. He also sported a solid .265 batting average versus lefties (not to a mention a .254 average against lefties with the Twins in 2013).
While he has struggled to make consistent contact in the majors, his strikeout rate in his minor league career was just 18.9 percent, and only 21.5 percent between Double- and Triple-A. A 21.5 percent strikeout rate is still below average at the big league level, but the point is that there's hope for improvement (and a whiff rate in the low 20s is much easier to work with than one in the low 30s). Arcia's walk rate in the majors sits at 6.9 percent. In the minors, however, he walked at an 8.1 percent clip, including 10.2 percent between Double- and Triple-A.
The question, then, is whether he'll make the necessary adjustments to be more than a big power guy who also drains your batting average. Well, it's too early to say the final results are in, but early indications are that he already made some adjustments last year and, more importantly, saw improved results.
Where he needs to improve
Two parts of Arcia's game in particular needed to get ironed out: His approach against lefties and his handling of off-speed and breaking pitches. Multiple reports out of Minnesota last year said the Twins worked with the him on his approach and mechanics. More specifically, the team had him watch video to better learn how pitchers were attacking him and worked with him on staying closed and not dropping his front shoulder through his swing. It's sometimes difficult to know how much weight to give such reports, but Arcia did show improvement in those areas as the year wore on.
First, Arcia fared better against lefties during the final two months last season. From April to July, he hit .158/.250/.263 with a .088 hard-hit average versus left-handers. From August to September, he batted .230/.269/.351 with a .189 hard-hit average against them. A .230/.269/.351 slash line isn't terrific by any means, but it was an improvement, and that's what we're looking for.
Even more encouraging are the improvements he showed against breaking balls and off-speed pitches over the final two months. From April to July, he sported a 47.8 chase percentage (percentage of pitches a hitter swings at outside the strike zone) on off-speed and breaking pitches. From August on, however, that mark dipped to 36.5 percent, a marked improvement. The table at right shows Arcia's batting average gains against changeups, curves and sliders in August and September.
Looking ahead
Yes, we're dealing with small sample sizes here, but Arcia's entire big league career thus far has been a relatively small sample (788 plate appearances). More than anything, this looks like the case of a young hitter who was promoted quickly and has taken some time to adjust to big league pitching, which, of course, is not uncommon.
There's little reason to expect Arcia to develop into a .300 hitter at the big league level, but given his age, minor league track record and the adjustments he has already made in the big leagues, he could very well settle in as a .265-.275 hitter if he carries over the gains he made late last season. In today's hitting environment, that's pretty darn solid.
And when you add that to a guy who has the potential to swat 30-plus homers (and potentially even be a dark-horse candidate for the home run crown)? Well, that's much more than a fifth outfielder in fantasy.