We're on the threshold of the fantasy basketball playoffs, and the NBA postseason is just a month away. We are in the money part of the season for both fantasy basketball and NBA futures, and it's always the money part of the season for DFS and daily betting.
So... who do you trust? From superstars to potential fantasy hoops streamers, who should you trust to produce and perhaps exceed expectations at this key point of the season? Let's explore.
Schedule
For most fantasy basketball leagues, the number of games a player has in a given week is very important for projecting their production. An average team plays three or four games in a given week, so any team playing only twice is worth a red flag.
And, teams with four or rarely five games can be valuable... as long as back-to-backs and load management aren't issues for particular players. Typically, the fantasy playoffs span weeks 22, 23 and 24 of the season.
There are no teams with five games during any of those weeks, but these are the two-game teams in any of the playoffs weeks:
Week 22: Hornets, Knicks and Jazz
Week 23: Nuggets, Pistons and Heat
Week 24: no teams
On the fantasy front, there are certain players that you almost have to play, even with only two games. Nikola Jokic is the top scorer in fantasy hoops for the third season in a row; you're not sitting him.
Guys like Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle on the Knicks, or Lauri Markkanen on the Jazz, have so thoroughly outplayed most season projections (though I do feel I should mention that I had all three on my ultimate draft guide as players to target coming into the season) that you almost have to play them with only two games as well.
Ditto with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, both of whom join the others in averaging more than 40 FP/G. But, players like Jamal Murray (37.6 FP/G) or Terry Rozier (34.9 FP/G), who are solid every-game starters under normal circumstances, might need to sit. Their expected two-game production is on the order of 70-75 FP, while in most leagues there are potential streamers capable of averaging 25-30 FP/G that may play three or four times in a given week.
This phenomenon also plays a big part in choosing streamers in a given week. We had a roundtable about that today, in which I identified Kelly Olynyk (29.0 FP/G over last week, available in 69.7% of leagues) as the type of player that would generally be a good FBA streaming option that you might want to hold off on for next week.
On the other hand, for DFS and daily betting player prop options, it might be worth your while to actively target these same players that have sparser schedules. The NBA season is a marathon, and the teams are coming down the stretch. Players that have an extra day or two of rest, particularly those that may be on teams embroiled in playoffs seeding races, could have fresh legs and put some big numbers on the board.
The Knicks, Jazz and Heat are all in such battles, capable of moving up or down in the playoffs race depending on how the next few weeks play out. Thus, players like Markkanen, Butler, Adebayo and even Olynyk could make good DFS and daily prop bet targets to outproduce on their games in sparse weeks.
Playoffs races
Generally speaking, I trust players on teams competing for playoffs position to produce at max efficiency at this time of season more so than teams whose position is practically fixed or that are obviously headed for the lottery.
Thus, I am less likely to depend on the primary players on the Hornets, Pistons, Spurs or Rockets -- all well out of the playoffs hunt -- to outperform in a given week or night. There just isn't motivation for the team to push their starters, particularly their veterans, to play extra minutes or push through injury if there is no benefit in doing so.
A player like Bojan Bogdanovic, for example, has been one of my favorite daily props bets (over on points) for much of the season, but moving forward I'm not expecting the 30-something to necessarily produce with that level of consistency anymore.
In fact, the exception to the 'avoid lottery teams' rule is at the other end of the age spectrum, with the rookies and young players. Those prospects that may not have necessarily gotten enough burn all season, could very well blossom down the stretch for fantasy purposes as the lottery teams look to assess what they have.
Players like Mark Williams of the Hornets, Marvin Bagley III and James Wiseman of the Pistons, Tari Eason of the Rockets and Jeremy Sochan, Charles Bassey and Devin Vassell of the Spurs could all be worth consideration as streamers moving forward.
Meanwhile, ironically, the teams at the very tops of both conferences could also be unreliable down the stretch, especially as the leads stretch. The Bucks only have a 2.5 game lead in the Eastern Conference, but they've already shown a willingness to sit their star players (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday sat with minor ailments on Tuesday night).
They've been consistent in limiting Khris Middleton's minutes and ramping him up slowly during his season-long recovery from a knee injury, and they are deep at every position with contributing players they can give minutes to so their stars can rest. Not the desired formula for FBA, DFS or daily betting.
The Nuggets may be even more risky to rely upon, because their lead in the West has stretched to 7.5 games, and the second-place Grizzlies are fading with the uncertainty surrounding Ja Morant.
As the Nuggets come closer to clinching home court advantage, there will be less and less impetus for them to demand big numbers from their star players, as they may start preparing them to be fresh for the postseason. So, along with the 2-game week mentioned above, the Nuggets have two strikes against them for FBA purposes down the stretch.
Futures finishes
Speaking of the playoffs races, which teams are most likely to make the playoffs outright? To make the play-in? To end up on the outside looking in? Many of the season-long futures bets still hang in the balance, awaiting answers to those questions.
Some thoughts on the various races:
In the East, the Nets have a 2.5-game lead over the Heat for the sixth and final playoffs spot, but they have a five-game lead on the Hawks in the eighth slot. With most teams having only 17 or so games left, it is unlikely that anyone from the Hawks-down catch the Nets.
The Heat are still in play, but according to out Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Nets (+1.0 BPI, 13th in the league) still measure out as the slightly better team than the Heat (0.9 BPI, 16th in league). The Heat do have an easier schedule, though (0.49, 12th in the league) than do the Nets (0.52, 23rd in league), to help keep their chances of catching up alive.
The Heat has a similar calculus against the Hawks, who they lead by 2.5 games for the Southeast division crown. The Heat have a slightly better BPI (0.9 BPI, 16th) than the Hawks (0.5 BPI, 18th), and they also have a slightly easier schedule than the Hawks (0.51, 18th-easiest in the league).
The Celtics have a 1.5 game lead on the 76ers in the Atlantic Division, the closest race in the NBA. The Celtics have the higher BPI (5.5, third in NBA) than the 76ers (4.7, sixth in NBA), but the 76ers have the easiest remaining schedule in the NBA (0.44) while the Celtics have one of the hardest at .52, 24th in league.
The Western Conference is the epitome of the wild wild west, with eight teams with between 32 and 34 losses going into Wednesday's games. Thus, the fifth-seeded Mavericks are only two games in the loss column ahead of the 12th seeded Trail Blazers. There are too many permutations to break down as far as favorites to make the playoffs, the play-in or be on the outside looking in.
But, if BPI is any guide, these are the highest four of those teams, in order, according to BPI:
Clippers (current eighth seed)
Warriors (current sixth seed)
Mavericks (current fifth seed)
Timberwolves (current seventh seed)
And, here are the top-four easiest strength of schedules, among the eight:
Timberwolves (currently seventh)
Trail Blazers (currently 12th)
Thunder (currently 11th)
Warriors (currently sixth)
The Timberwolves and Warriors are on both lists, which bodes well for their potential finish, but otherwise it still shapes up as the wild wild west.
The fantasy basketball, DFS, daily betting and futures prospects for all of these teams are strongly in play, which means we're in for a fun finish to the season out West. And we wouldn't have it any other way.