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Fantasy basketball forecaster for week of Nov. 21-27

When a player thrives statistically on a bad team, I tend to call that the Shareef Abdur-Rahim effect. This isn't a slight to Abdur-Rahim, as he put up an enduring stretch of strong numbers between stints with Vancouver and Atlanta, but rather an acknowledgment of the statistical benefits of playing heavy minutes with steady opportunities on a subpar roster. Maybe a modern hyphenated player as an example is in order, as we saw Michael Carter-Williams post impressive numbers for the Philadelphia 76ers early in his career.

This season, the Brooklyn Nets' Trevor Booker might be the best candidate for this brand of increased opportunity. Into his seventh season, Booker is quietly enjoying a breakout season. The Nets have been surprisingly competitive, but still field a roster that proves thin at several depth charts, namely power forward. Booker is playing a career-high 26.5 minutes per game and subsequently enjoying rewarding opportunities. The Clemson product has averaged 15.4 rebounding chances per game -- defined as being within 3.5 feet of an available rebound -- the most on the team and 26th in the league. As a result, Booker is averaging 8.5 boards, a 60 percent leap over his career clip, while the most impressive element is his elite steal rate, as he's eighth in the league in larceny so far this season.

Even as we can expect some regression in the steals department, some team trends support Booker's overall rise as a fantasy asset. The Nets are just barely behind the Phoenix Suns for the top spot in pace this season, with 104.5 possessions per 48 minutes. Such an up-tempo scheme positions the Nets with a respectable offensive rating of 102.4 points per 100 possessions, thus Booker's steady share of minutes and rebounding opportunities appears sustainably rewarding. The best current stat for Booker's fantasy brand is the fact he's still available in nearly half of all ESPN leagues. While he doesn't deliver a ton of points, such helpful rebounding and steal rates indicates the market isn't appreciating the opportunity Booker is enjoying this season.


Access the downloadable forecaster chart PDF here

Matchup ratings are based on a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past-10-games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.


Ratings roundup

The Warriors net two games against the up-tempo Lakers, who are running a familiar scheme under Luke Walton, while the Pacers are also top 10 in pace and the Timberwolves are 28th in defensive rating. Such strong matchups with added possessions earns Golden State one of two perfect ratings for the upcoming slate. The Thunder similarly face a friendly week ahead, matching with the Wolves and Kings -- 29th in defensive rating -- supports a perfect rating.

As for challenging setups, the Jazz and Bulls are both saddled with two-game schedules, limiting any appeal in their respective rosters for streaming in weekly formats. The Knicks, meanwhile, face the Hornets' solid defense in two of three games, as Charlotte has the fourth-best defensive rating in the league.

The other brother

The Dallas Mavericks' J.J. Barea suffered a calf injury that could sideline him for more than a month. While he's no Steph, the rise of the Mavericks' Seth Curry is an interesting narrative to track as he'll assume a leap in minutes and usage in the wake of Barea's injury. Barea, after all, was enjoying a career-best 33.1 minutes and 13.7 shots per game, sizable leaps of his previous bests. Barea currently ranks 10th in the league in drives and 10th in frontcourt touches per game, so we find a sizable workload available for Curry, who is available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN leagues.

Target the Nets

Having already discussed Booker's ascension and the Net's position as second in pace in the league, we should also detail how favorable a matchup Brooklyn proves for opponents. The Nets have some loose defensive metrics, as Brooklyn has ceded the most second-chance points per game, the most points off turnovers and the eighth most points per game on the fast break. For both streaming in weekly formats and identifying solid DFS matchups, the Nets are an ideal target.

Inviting from deep

The Wizards' backcourt has struggled over the past few seasons in defending deep shots, so streaming shooters against them proves appealing. When seeking a shooting specialist to stream to boost 3-point production in weekly competition, it could help to target the teams struggling to close out on the perimeter effectively. Listed below you'll find the five teams surrendering the highest shooting percentage from beyond the arc this season.

Generous on the glass

Just as we can target weak perimeter defenses for shooting specialists, we can also attack the boards by identifying teams struggling to secure rebounds. Listed by the lowest rebounding percentages in the league -- as in the Blazers are securing a league-low 45.3 percent of available rebounds -- we can survey the most attractive streaming matchups when seeking frontcourt help.