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Football statistics are hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.
There are 113 names in those pieces and, in 103 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 91.2%. Five exceptions came during the historically offensive 2018 and 2020 seasons (not to mention that four of Taysom Hill's nine scores came during his four unexpected starts at QB). Last season, the piece correctly identified 14 of 16 TD dippers, with Jalen Hurts (13 to 15) and CeeDee Lamb (9 to 14) the lone exceptions. The 16 players averaged 11.0 TDs in 2022, were projected for 6.9 TDs in 2023 and ended up averaging 6.0 TDs.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply cannot sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent. Scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good. I have it.
During the 2011 to 2022 seasons, there were 233 instances in which a player totaled 10 or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 193 (82.8%) scored fewer touchdowns the very next season and the average change was a decrease of 5.1. Of the 55 instances in which a player scored 14-plus touchdowns, 53 (96.3%) scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 8.6). The only exceptions were Todd Gurley (19 in 2017, 21 in 2018) and Marshawn Lynch (14 in 2013, 17 in 2014).
Every player who scored 14-plus TDs in 2022 found the end zone less often in 2023: Austin Ekeler (18 to 6), Jamaal Williams (17 to 1) and Davante Adams (14 to 8).
Last season, Raheem Mostert (21), Christian McCaffrey (21), Hurts (15), Josh Allen (15), Kyren Williams (15) and Lamb (14) made up the list of players who reached 14 offensive TDs.
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have expected touchdowns (xTD), previously labeled as OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2023 usage tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.
Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season.
NOTE: This study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins
2023 TDs: 21; 2024 projected TDs: 9
De'Von Achane, RB, Dolphins 2023 TDs: 11; 2024 projected TDs: 8