The Houston Texans will have a new-look offense in 2016 after they reportedly signed quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller to four-year contracts.
A second-round pick back in 2012, Osweiler registered 30 career pass attempts over three years as Peyton Manning's backup in Denver before stepping into a more prominent role last season. Osweiler completed 170 of 275 attempts for 1,967 yards and 10 touchdowns with six interceptions during eight appearances last season. He appeared in six full games in place of Manning and produced a pair of top-10 fantasy-point finishes at the position. Osweiler ranked 12th among quarterbacks in fantasy points during that span.
A 25-year-old pocket passer with a 6-foot-8, 240-pound frame, Osweiler played well during his time in Denver, but the sample size here is very small. He's certainly an upgrade over Brian Hoyer and Tom Savage, and there is a hint of upside, but Osweiler is unproven at the pro level. It's a risky move for Houston but one that will pay major dividends if he can leap forward.
Miller, meanwhile, is already proven at the NFL level. A 2012 fourth-round pick, Miller has finished sixth and ninth among running backs in fantasy points over the past two seasons, respectively.
His usage (or lack thereof) has been a popular talking point over the past few years. He has yet to earn more than 216 carries in a season, averaging 196 attempts over the past three seasons. Incredibly, he averaged only 12.2 carries and 3.5 targets per game in 2015. Despite that roadblock, Miller's efficiency has carried him to high-end fantasy production. He's averaged 4.8 yards per carry over the past two seasons and piled up 16 rushing touchdowns during the span.
A big part of Miller's success can be traced to durability. After appearing in nine games as a rookie, Miller has been active for each of Miami's 48 games over the past three seasons. During that span, he's been on the field for 60 percent of the team's offensive snaps, which is lower than you might expect from a team's clear best running back.
Miller was fantasy's sixth-ranked running back last season even though he finished outside the top 30 backs in half of his 16 appearances. That 50 percent rate ranked 28th among the top 50 backs in terms of fantasy points. Miller produced five top-10 weeks (which is good), but his only other top-30 finishes were 19th and 21st (twice).
During his time in Miami, Miller overcame a limited workload with excellent durability and efficiency. He can't be counted on to hold up for 16 games every year, so his share of the carries (and potentially the targets) will need to increase for him to take another step forward as a fantasy asset. Alfred Blue is a decent backup but shouldn't be a major threat to Miller's touches. Akeem Hunt and Kenny Hilliard are the team's only other backs, but it's possible the Texans look for another contributor during the draft. Miami didn't view Miller as a workhorse, and Houston very well could agree.
That being said, Miller is only 24 years old and the lead back in a run-first offense that led the NFL in snaps last season. He's clearly primed to repeat as a top-10 fantasy running back. Unproven as a 20-plus-touch workhorse and yet to make major contributions as a pass-catcher, he doesn't have quite the ceiling of Le'Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles and David Johnson, but Miller is a fine RB1 and a great RB2 option in 2016.
As for Osweiler, the acquisition of Miller, combined with the team's outstanding defense, will allow Houston to operate a conservative, run-first offense again this season. That, of course, will limit Osweiler's volume to the point that he's not quite in the QB1 conversation. In fact, he's best viewed as a low-ceiling, fringe QB2. DeAndre Hopkins -- fantasy's No. 6-scoring wide receiver last season -- will benefit from the quarterback upgrade and remains an elite option at the position. He should be off the board in the first round of your draft.