Maybe we need to start looking at the Buffalo Bills' backfield differently.
For the entirety of C.J. Spiller's five-year NFL career, we've been flummoxed by his usage. There's no denying Spiller's 4.37 wheels and insane quicks, his 4.9 career yards-per-carry mark, or the fact that he's produced 23 gains of 20-plus yards since 2012, second most behind only Adrian Peterson. (And we can add a couple of kickoff-return TDs to the mix, too.) But two different sets of Bills coaching staffs have apparently come to the conclusion that they can't trust Spiller to be a true feature back. In 2014, he's currently 19th in the league in carries, and for a full season has yet to finish higher than 20th.
In large part, that's because Fred Jackson also plays in Buffalo, and Jackson is simply too good to sit.
If I'm ranking these Bills RBs for the rest of the season, Jackson comes in higher than Spiller. If you're a regular reader of mine, you know this isn't just about statistics, but in the interest of full disclosure, here are the '14 stats so far:
Bills RB comparison, this season
Let me share a few more revealing statistics: So far this season, Jackson has played 232 offensive snaps, which is sixth among all RBs. Spiller (who hasn't missed significant time this year due to injury) has played 141 snaps, which is 39th among RBs. Jackson is a more trustworthy blocker, a better goal-line weapon (Jackson has 16 snaps inside an opponent's 10; Spiller has three), and apparently a more reliable receiver, as he's got 37 targets compared to Spiller's 15.
I took apart each man's tape from Week 6 against the New England Patriots. I wish I could explain their statistical differences by showing you flashy breakout plays from Jackson, or missed opportunities for breakout plays from Spiller, but I can't. The biggest hindrance in the Bills' running game is an offensive line that isn't playing well, and that's limiting the effectiveness of both RBs. The O-line has looked adequate protecting the quarterback, but particularly the right side seems to get no push when run-blocking. Against the Pats, I counted eight of 23 carries when the RB was met at or before the line of scrimmage.
When you've got a crummy line, a running back's style matters. Jackson seems better suited to make something out of nothing, because he's more decisive than Spiller. This isn't a revolutionary thought: The player with breakaway skills hesitates looking for an angle to make a big play, while the bigger, more workmanlike guy just bangs it up in there and takes what he can get. This season, 13 of Spiller's carries have gone for negative yardage, compared to eight for Jackson. That's not a huge gap. But I don't have a stat for the average time it takes for each RB to stop moving laterally and start moving forward; if I did, I'm betting Spiller's stopwatch number would be higher.
To illustrate this point, I tried to find a play each for Spiller and Jackson from Sunday's game when the formation and plan of attack was roughly the same. Now, obviously I'm not in the huddle and didn't hear the play call, but to my eyes, I found two such plays:
Spiller's carry is the game's first play from scrimmage. There are two tight ends, both lined up left, with two wideouts and Spiller in a single-man backfield. The opening kickoff was a touchback, so the Bills begin this play on their own 20, and you can see the Patriots' defensive line has succeeded in penetrating that scrimmage line. Scott Chandler is lined up furthest left, and he's engaged with Chandler Jones; it looks to me like Spiller could try bursting through the hole inside the "Chandlers," but by the time I froze the video, he's already committed to a jump-step and is running outside. He loses 5 yards on the play.
Jackson's version of this play has two tight ends lined up right, but the planned blocking scheme is the same: The linemen fire straight out in a power scheme. Jackson doesn't have much room, either. Vince Wilfork (No. 75) has spun off a poor block and is standing in the hole. But Jackson's feet never stutter. He's hitting it hard, and whatever happens, happens. In this case, it was a 5-yard gain.
Now, this is a partly unfair and loaded exercise. I had a point to make about the running backs' respective running styles and whether they're a fit for a subpar O-line, so I selected plays whose results fit my thesis. But I honestly do believe I found the two Bills running plays from Week 6 that most resembled each other, and I don't think it's completely coincidental that the film played out the way it did.
By the way, you can absolutely find other explanations for last week's workload disparity. For example, Spiller ripped off a nice broken-field 15-yard run near halftime, nearly reaching midfield, but lost a fumble at the play's end. Was the Bills' decision to give Jackson 27 snaps in the second half and Spiller only seven related to this miscue? Possibly.
It's my opinion, though, that it's always something with Spiller. He's obviously the more talented RB. But it's always a fumble, or a tendency to dance at the line, or a missed block, or an injury. The Bills would no doubt love it if Spiller had proved in the past four-plus years that he's ready to be a workhorse. He just hasn't done it, and I think the Bills have reached their final conclusion about what they have. He's a free agent at the end of this year. My guess is he'll sign elsewhere.
Can Spiller break an NFL game and a fantasy game open with a huge play? Of course he can. But in my RB rankings this week, I have Jackson No. 16 and Spiller No. 22, and I only went that high with Spiller because the Minnesota Vikings represent a favorable matchup. I'll have to see some pretty different stuff on tape before I consider flip-flopping the Buffalo RBs. I view Jackson as a low-ceilinged every-week starter in all formats, and Spiller as a higher-upside matchup play.