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          Fantasy baseball Sunday advice: Brewers' Montas is streamable

          Frankie Montas has had a resurgence since joining the Brewers. Jeff Hanisch/Imagn Images
          • Todd Zola, FantasySep 22, 2024, 02:22 PM
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            • Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
            • Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer's Association Best Baseball Article
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          Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

          Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

          Montas missing more bats

          Frankie Montas was sporting a bloated 5.01 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with a pedestrian 22.2% strikeout rate when the Milwaukee Brewers acquired the right-hander from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline. However, Montas' leadership was lauded by the Reds' coaching staff, and Milwaukee needed a veteran to support its playoff push.

          The Brewers have developed a reputation for getting the most out of their pitchers and saw something in Montas. The trade proved prescient. Not only has Montas been a clubhouse presence, he has recorded a solid 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with an impressive 28.6% strikeout rate in nine starts covering 50 2/3 innings for the postseason-bound Brewers.

          While it's unclear if there is a direct cause and effect, Montas has added a tick to his four-seam and two-seam fastballs. Regardless, the Brewers took advantage by having Montas throw more sinkers and cutters while backing off splitter and slider usage. His swinging strike rate has increased across the board, most noticeably with his four-seam fastball.

          Where Montas will land when the Brewers set their playoff rotation is unknown. At the top likely will be RHP Freddy Peralta, but after that, Montas, RHP Aaron Civale and RHP Tobias Myers can be deployed in any order.

          On Sunday, Montas (13.4% rostered in ESPN league) has a home date with the Arizona Diamondbacks in what could be a wild-card round preview. The Brewers still have a mathematical chance at a bye, but they're almost assuredly hosting a wild-card series against the Diamondbacks, New York Mets or Atlanta Braves.

          The Diamondbacks have more to play for in Sunday's meeting, but the Brewers want to head into the playoffs with momentum, so they'll be giving it their all. Montas may not want to give away his game plan if he were to face the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, but his stuff is playing up enough to trust in season leagues. Those in the head-to-head finals may be more hesitant to burn a start on a risky matchup.

          What you may have missed on Saturday

          • The Boston Red Sox shook up their roster by officially placing 3B Rafael Devers on the 10-day IL, thus ending his season. The club called up 2B Mickey Gasper in a corresponding move. Third base will be covered by Romy Gonzalez and Nick Sogard. The Red Sox will reportedly give Vaughn Grissom a lot of action at second base over the final week of the season.

          • The Washington Nationals optioned SS CJ Abrams to the minors for disciplinary seasons. As reported by ESPN's Jeff Passan, Abrams stayed out past curfew in Chicago last Thursday night. Nasim Nunez will round out the season as the team's regular shortstop.

          • The New York Yankees welcomed OF Juan Soto back to the starting lineup. Soto didn't start on Friday, though he delivered a key pinch hit. On Saturday, Soto went 2-for-6 with two runs scored in the Yankees' 10-0 whitewashing of the Oakland Athletics. The Yankees have secured a playoff berth and are on the cusp of clinching the AL East. They're also 1.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians for the top seed (and home-field advantage) throughout the AL playoffs.

          • Speaking of the Guardians, they clinched the AL Central last night. Typically, it's wise to avoid players on the day after they clinch, but they may opt to play their regulars in order to attempt to chase down the Yankees. The Guardians only play five games during the season's final week, so they may decide to postpone celebrating until their off day on Monday.

          • Texas Rangers RHP Max Scherzer's season is over. He was slated to take the hill last night but was scratched due to a left hamstring strain. The soon-to-be free agent ends the season with just nine starts covering 43 1/3 innings.

          • St. Louis Cardinals RHP Sonny Gray has also thrown his last pitch of 2024 as he was placed on the 15-day IL due to right forearm flexor tightness. Gray logged 28 starts in the first of a three-year contract with the Cardinals.

          • Milwaukee Brewers C William Contreras missed Saturday's game because of finger and hip issues. Contreras reportedly wanted to play, but with the Brewers locked into the No. 3 seed in the National League, he was held out of the lineup. Contreras' status for today is uncertain.

          • Arizona Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly exited last night's game after five shutout innings as he was experiencing cramping in his right calf. Kelly was effective, tallying six strikeouts while throwing 72 pitches, but the club took the safe route. Kelly had to leave a game with hamstring cramps earlier this month. His status for the final week of the season is unclear. The Diamondbacks enter Sunday's action with a one-game lead over the New York Mets for the second NL wild-card spot.

          • Seattle Mariners 1B Justin Turner was forced from last night's contest due to a knee injury, suffered after fouling a ball off his left knee in the sixth inning. His status for today is unclear. The Mariners sit 1.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins for the final AL wild-card entry.

          Everything else you need to know for Sunday

          • Sunday's action now begins at 12:35 p.m. ET with the first of a double-dip between the Minnesota Twins and the Red Sox, brought about by yesterday's weather-related postponement. So, be sure to lock in your fantasy baseball lineups before your fantasy football ones this week. The nightcap is scheduled for 5:35 p.m. ET. It continued to rain overnight, but the forecast calls for dry skies in the afternoon.

          • The top-ranked streaming option is Tampa Bay Rays RHP Shane Baz (18.8% rostered) for his home date with the Toronto Blue Jays. Baz didn't debut until early July, but by season's end, he should finish between 75 and 80 innings, enough to pitch next season with limited restrictions. His 3.21 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are stellar, but he has benefited from a .231 BABIP and 78.7% left on base mark, masking a low 20.6% strikeout rate. Even so, Baz is in play as a spot starter, pitching at favorable Tropicana Field. Beware, however, the Blue Jays don't strike out a lot, so there is some risk.

          • Next up is Houston Astros RHP Spencer Arrighetti (21.8%) for a juicy home tilt against the Los Angeles Angels. Arrighetti could be hitting a rookie wall, as his punchouts have been down in September, but he's facing a lineup with a generous 26.6% strikeout rate versus righties over the past month.

          • Sunday is an important outing for Cleveland Guardians RHP Gavin Williams. The Guardians have clinched a playoff berth, but they still have designs on the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs on the American League side. Plus, Williams needs to establish consistency, something he has lacked over the second half. To his credit, Williams has rebounded from a drubbing inflicted by the Los Angeles Dodgers three starts ago with a pair of solid efforts, but a third straight effective effort would help instill more confidence. The Guardians will conclude a road interleague series with the St. Louis Cardinals, whose lineup has been below average with a right-hander on the hill.

          • Betting tip of the day: The Los Angeles Dodgers sport the highest implied run total on the board. Perhaps Shohei Ohtani is the more obvious focus, but the odds are better for Freddie Freeman, so back him for over 2.5 total hits + runs + RBI (+125).

          Starting pitcher rankings for Sunday

          Reliever report

          To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

          Hitting report

          Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

          Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

          Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Sunday

          THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Sunday