We're now done with three matchdays in the freshly expanded Champions League's eight-match "league phase." What do you think? We've certainly had some surprise results (Monaco over Barcelona in matchday 1, Lille over Real Madrid in matchday 2). We've had some big-name matchups that the previous format might not have given us this early (Manchester City-Inter Milan, Arsenal-PSG, Barcelona-Bayern). And unless you truly believe that Aston Villa are the best team in Europe, that Brest are in the top five and that Bayern Munich aren't in the top 20, then the table itself certainly packs some early surprises and oddities.
If you enjoy true stakes, however, you might still be struggling to find your way in. Lille's upset of Real Madrid, for instance, was huge for their own odds of advancing to the knockout rounds, but Real Madrid still have the third-highest odds of finishing in the top eight, which would give them a first-round bye in the knockouts. Borussia Dortmund still have the fourth-highest odds of finishing top-eight despite Tuesday's late collapse at Real Madrid. Bayern have lost two straight but aren't in any major danger of missing the knockouts.
The matches have been frequently interesting, the best players in the world have been slowly raising their game (see: Vinícius Júnior's Tuesday hat trick or Erling Haaland's karate-kick goal), and we've gotten to see thrilled home crowds celebrating wins at proud clubs such as Celtic, Lille and, of course, Aston Villa. If you're struggling to figure out what the results have actually meant thus far, I can't totally blame you. But I can help.
There are basically four tiers of Champions League contenders: The actual title favorites, the teams best positioned to make a run, the long shots likely to advance to the knockouts (but maybe not advance far) and the teams least likely to advance. Let's walk through each tier and talk about whose stock rose and fell during matchday 3.