Real Madrid travel to the Estadio Jose Alvalade on Tuesday with qualification for the Champions League knockout stages firmly in their hands. Zinedine Zidane's side will step out on to the pitch against Sporting Lisbon buoyed by a resounding 3-0 derby victory over Atletico and Barcelona's 0-0 draw at Camp Nou against Malaga, which opened up a four-point gap in Real's favour at the top of the La Liga table.
In Lisbon, Real's objective is straightforward: A point will be enough to secure the visitors' place in the round of 16, while a victory likely means the group winner will be decided on the final matchday against Borussia Dortmund in the Bernabeu. The Bundesliga side host Legia Warsaw in the parallel Group F match and, barring a miracle on the part of the Polish champions, who lost 6-0 in the reverse fixture, will remain two points ahead of Real with one game to play.
The only snag for Zidane's side is the hangover from their 3-3 draw against Legia Warsaw in the Polish Army Stadium, which gives Sporting hope going into Tuesday's match. Had Real been victorious, the hosts would already be contemplating Europa League football at the beginning of next year. Instead, Jorge Jesus' side have the opportunity to leapfrog Real into second place over the course of 180 minutes. A win on Tuesday, coupled with Dortmund beating reigning champions Real on the final day and a Sporting triumph over Legia, would complete that scenario.
"We are up against the best team in the world; they are second to none," Jesus said in his prematch news conference. "But we are confident in our abilities. We have a dream, and that is to play as we did in Madrid and win."
Jesus' faith is well-founded. Sporting have not lost by more than a single goal in the competition this season and nearly took all three points from their opening Group F fixture with Real at the Bernabeu. It required a late Real rally, through Cristiano Ronaldo's 89th-minute free kick and a header in the 94th from Alvaro Morata, to ensure a 2-1 victory for Zidane's team.
Jesus rarely strays from a 4-1-3-2 formation, with the imposing figure of William Carvalho, a regular occupier of the Bernabeu rumour mill, in the defensive midfield position. However, in Sporting's last Champions League fixture, a narrow loss to Dortmund at the Westfalenstadion, Jesus opted to play with three at the back and a packed midfield, leaving Luc Castaignos to plough a lone furrow up front. The result was 50 percent of possession against one of Europe's more ball-hungry sides.
That setup allowed Gelson Martins and Bryan Ruiz to drop back to flood the midfield, but they remained the most dangerous players going forward, accounting for almost half of the Portuguese club's attempts. It was a fluid formation that left Dortmund with little breathing space, and only a 12th-minute goal from Adrian Ramos separated the sides. Sporting also have a Plan B, which Jesus switched to in the second half, in the shape of Bas Dost, who offers an aerial threat that could pose Real some serious problems.
Against Atletico, Zidane also shook up his tactical approach, opting for a 4-4-1-1, with Ronaldo the main focal point and Isco operating in his favoured position in the No. 10 role. Deploying Gareth Bale and the ever-effective Lucas Vazquez on the flanks of a four-man midfield gave Real the edge at the Calderon, and there is little reason for Zidane, who has taken the exact same squad with him to Lisbon, to tinker overly with the side that defeated their city rivals so convincingly, other than the return of Sergio Ramos in place of Nacho.
Sticking with the same formation will require Zidane to resist the temptation to reunite the BBC. Although Karim Benzema has been decisive on several occasions this season -- not least in the 2-2 draw against Dortmund, where he was instrumental in Real's second goal with an effort off the woodwork -- he may prove to be a better option from the bench after featuring for only 10 minutes of Real's last two games.
Inevitably, all eyes will be on Ronaldo in the Jose Alvalade as the Portuguese makes his first competitive return to his formative club since a group stage match when he was representing Manchester United in 2007-08.
That game between Sporting and United ended 1-0 to the visitors, with Ronaldo scoring the only goal as his side topped their group and went on to win the Champions League. Omens aside, Zidane would happily take the same result on Tuesday.