State of Play
A delightful lob from Sahal Abdul Samad in the first leg of the semi-final and Kerala Blasters lead Jamshedpur FC 1-0. The Blasters are looking to make their first final since 2016, Jamshedpur their first ever. It's finely poised.
What do Jamshedpur need to do?
To state the obvious - score a goal, at the minimum. Now, goal scoring hasn't really been an issue for Jamshedpur all season. They have scored more than anyone but Hyderabad, and before the first leg were on an ISLnrecord seven-game winning streak. So it's not like they are off-form.
The issue here is, what do they do differently from the previous match?
Jamshedpur's plan A is remarkably simple - play direct football, attack the wings and then the inside channels. In the first 25 minutes of the first leg, they had the Blasters on toast with said Plan A. Len Doungel was simply too strong for Sanjeev Stalin on Jamshedpur's right flank and as play kept getting switched to him, he kept getting Greg Stewart and Daniel Chima Chukwu into the game. For that opening period, the Blasters were out-played, out-fought, and out-thought. Then Doungel went off injured.
Doungel was replaced by Mobashir Rahman and as good a player as Rahman is, he does not have Doungel's physicality. Nor does he have Boris Singh Thangjam's pace and dribbling ability (He's the regular starting right winger who got injured in the last match of the league stage). This meant they couldn't go direct down that route. Meanwhile, on the left, Ritwik Das had been kept quiet by Harmanjot Khabra, the Blasters man too canny for the Jamshedpur youngster.
Keep in mind that Jamshedpur's midfield is Pranoy Halder and Pranoy-Halder-lite Jitendra Singh. Immense ball winners, the type of player you want on your side in a battle, but not so great if you have to construct pretty passing patterns down the centre of the field.
All of which resulted in Greg Stewart dropping deeper, needing to do more. That first leg was the first match of this season where Stewart (11 goals, 10 assists already) didn't get a touch in the opposition penalty box. Even when he got the ball in slightly less threatening areas he couldn't do much, thanks to a combination of the midfield shield of Ayush Adhikari and Puitea and the aggressive positioning of centre-back Ruivah Hormipam. Marko Leskovic's covering ability meant few gaps were left open behind them.
Now, Jamshedpur did spark back to life late on, when the Blasters sat back and Halder and Jitendra pushed forward. Plan B involved them winning the ball much higher up the pitch, and that forced a few openings. It also helped when the much stronger (physically) Sandip Mandi replaced the underwhelming Mobashir and when Alex Lima replaced a frustrated Greg Stewart. Ishan Pandita also showed why he's such a dreaded sight late on in an ISL game.
We can expect Owen Coyle and Jamshedpur to stick to Plan A at least for the first half (it's served them so well this season) and the Blasters full backs, and wide playmakers, should be ready for an intense battle. A lot hinges on Doungel's (or indeed Boris') availability. Also expect Stewart to play a little closer to Chima Chukwu.
If it doesn't work, plan B could involve bringing in Lima into the middle of the park alongside Halder or Jitendra or Pandita coming on a little earlier, and playing as a sort of inverted winger.
Coyle, experienced as he is, is unlikely to panic. Especially with the deficit only at one.
What do the Blasters need to do?
Much of the same thing: Allow Khabra to dominate his flank like he did. Keep Adhikari/Puitea (or Jeakson Singh) on Stewart. Continue with Hormipam as the aggressor and Leskovic as the sweeper. Ivan Vukomanovic's unusual 4-2-2-2 gave plenty of problems to Jamshedpur's midfield during the middle third of the match, and he'll continue to encourage the inverted runs from his wide playmakers Adrian Luna and Sahal Abdul Samad (the latter scored off one such run) and the free-roaming of his strikes Jorge Pereyra Diaz and Alvaro Vazquez (the latter provided the assist for Samad's goal after dropping deep).
The one thing they could tweak is the intensity of the gegenpress, at least if the state of play remains the same as the match wears on. With it being Jamshedpur's need to score, they can sit back and punch holes on the counter - something all four of their forwards have executed brilliantly this season.
Whatever happens, they should, though, expect a proper physical battle.