<
>

UFC 211 Cheat Sheet: Demian Maia vs. Jorge Masvidal

ESPN Illustration

The UFC heads to Dallas on Saturday, with a pair of championship fights atop UFC 211 inside American Airlines Center.

Heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic will look to tie the UFC record for consecutive heavyweight title defenses (two) in a rematch against Junior dos Santos.

Dominant strawweight titleholder Joanna Jedrzejczyk will try to remain unbeaten in a title defense against Jessica Andrade.

Let's take a closer look at all the top fights on the card with ESPN's Cheat Sheets, UFC 211 edition. For full UFC 211 coverage, click here.

Demian Maia (24-6) vs. Jorge Masvidal (32-11), Welterweight

Odds: Masvidal -130, Maia +110

'Every fight is a risk, this is no different'

Despite a 9-2 record since dropping to welterweight in 2012 -- and an active six-fight winning streak -- Maia says there is no guarantee of a UFC title shot with a win on Saturday.

The man has been hit a grand total of 13 times in his last four fights, according to Fightmetric, and yet a title shot has not been promised to him. So, he's doing his best not to think about it.

"Every fight is a risk and this is no different," Maia said, when asked if he has more to lose than gain this weekend. "The UFC approached me and said I needed to fight again if I wanted to [eventually] fight for the title. So, what can I do? There is no guarantee, ever. Life is just like that.

"It's kind of between the lines [whether a title shot is on the line]. Never a guarantee."

Even though many would say Maia's title shot is well past due, the 39-year-old Brazilian said he won't force things on Saturday against Masvidal in an effort to make a statement.

"My last two fights I've submitted guys and all six fights of my winning streak have been dominant," Maia said. "You cannot put it in your mind that you have to do something big. You just have to say, 'I will do my best.' That's what I think every time I'm in the Octagon. You can't control how great it will be."

Current champion Tyron Woodley (17-3-1) does not have a title defense scheduled, but has said he wishes to return to action in July.

Masvidal calling his shots

Coming into 2017, Masvidal had two specific targets in mind: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone and Maia.

For the former lightweight, the reasoning was simple. Masvidal identified Cerrone as one of the best strikers in his division and Maia as the best grappler. Beating them both would showcase his versatility as a fighter. Or in other words, cement his case as championship-caliber.

"We were going to work on getting the Cowboy fight in 2017 no matter what," said Masvidal, who knocked Cerrone out in January. "And another fight I wanted to do was Demian Maia. I think having those two victories under my belt let's everyone know how good I am. To beat those two guys, you have to be one thing, and that's a fighter everywhere: standing, jiu-jitsu, wrestling."

With Cerrone already behind him, Masvidal is one win away from completing his 2017 plan. The only thing left afterward, in his mind, would be a title shot -- against current champion and former teammate Woodley.

"That's exactly how I'm looking at it," Masvidal said. "How do you beat Demian Maia and Cowboy and not fight for the title? That would be insanely bad luck or politics."

Key stats

  • Maia: 24-6 (18-6 UFC); tied for fourth-most wins in UFC history

  • Maia: Three wins by knockout, 12 wins by submission

  • Masvidal: 32-11 (9-4 UFC); three-fight win streak

  • Masvidal: 13 wins by knockout, two wins by submission

Breakdown

Ask yourself this: If Maia is able to take Masvidal down three times, what are the chances he wins? Eighty percent? Ninety?

This man is so good on the ground, he really only needs one takedown each round. Because even if he doesn't submit you, Maia doesn't let you back up. Usually, once he scores a takedown, the round is over in a way. From that point on, it's about survival or his opponent. Get to the next round, when you get to stand up again.

Worth noting about Masvidal, his counter wrestling is very, very good. Throughout his Strikeforce and UFC career, Masvidal has defended takedowns at a rate of 79 percent. And even though he's a former lightweight, and Maia is a former middleweight, I don't think the size difference is a huge difference-maker here. It could come into play a little, but Masvidal is a true welterweight in my eyes.

There is a sort of paradox about Masvidal in that he is extremely fun to watch, but he's also very technical and under control. He has probably even been guilty of being too conservative at times. Generally, we tend to think of entertaining fighters as the ones who get a little wild. Masvidal, for the most part, doesn't do that. He stays within himself unless he has hurt his opponent, in which case he'll bomb away with the best of them.

That works to Masvidal's favor here, because you don't need to get to wildly creative to beat Maia on the feet. Masvidal's power and accuracy in his jabs and kicks will be more than enough to win this fight standing. Maia has worked on his stand-up and can be effectively awkward sometimes, but he has a speed problem (he's slow) and he doesn't throw with power. His only real means at backing an aggressor off is the threat of a takedown.

Don't overthink this one. It hinges on the takedown.

Maia is slick at converting them. There are times he takes a shot and you think, "No chance" -- and sure enough, he magically hits some outside trip or high-crotch move and that's that. When an opponent stuffs several shots, however, Maia looks very human. Under duress, he has a tendency to shoot desperately, which will quickly wear him out and put him in a bad spot against Masvidal.

Masvidal has had some bad luck in close fights. His last three losses have been split decisions. But that said, he shouldn't be in a rush to rack up offense here. Defending the takedown is most important. If he does that over the course of the fight, something tells me he'll end up the winner.

Okamoto's prediction: Masvidal via decision

You make the call: