A large portion of the excitement around the main event of the UFC's second-ever trip to the capital city of Canada is due to the fact that both Donald Cerrone and Al Iaquinta have fan-friendly and action-packed fights. Not only is this obvious to anyone who has watched their fights, but it is also evident when looking at their stats. Some of their striking stats are shockingly similar, but there are several key differences that could end up making the difference.
Let's take a closer look at what will define Saturday night's main event.
Striking differential
On a theoretical level, the best striking approach allows a fighter to land meaningful blows while avoiding reprisals from opponents. This is easily measured through striking differential, which is the number of significant strikes landed per minute (SLpM) minus significant strikes absorbed per minute (SApM). Despite the impressive UFC careers of Cerrone and Iaquinta, this measure does not paint a rosy picture for either competitor. Cerrone's career striking differential for his UFC/WEC career currently stands at +0.14, while "Raging Al" is not much better for his UFC career at +0.25.
The issue for both fighters is not related to offense. Both Cerrone (4.20 SLpM) and Iaquinta (4.30 SLpM) land around the same number of strikes on a per-minute basis as the average ranked lightweight (4.31). Though they are able to land against their opponents, they struggle to avoid strikes from their opponents. Cerrone has absorbed 4.06 significant strikes per minute, and Iaquinta has absorbed 4.05.
The similarity of both their offensive and defensive striking numbers illuminates how even the striking contest could be. The numbers also point to resemblance of style. The fact that both fighters have striking differentials near zero means that they are both willing to take punishment in order to dish it out. Very few coaches would likely recommend this approach, but Cerrone and Iaquinta have made it work for them. It is even more impressive in Cerrone's case because this will be his 41st fight in the UFC/WEC.
The fighters' historical lack of defense should lead to a rousing confrontation. It also means that both fighters will likely have the opportunity to land early and often in the bout, which adds an element of suspense and unpredictability.
Striking target
Though Cerrone and Iaquinta have eerily similar SLpM and SApM rates, there are some key differences in their striking styles. Iaquinta focuses the majority of his significant strikes (70 percent) at his opponents' heads, but "Cowboy" has been much more diverse with his attacks. During his UFC/WEC career, 25 percent of his landed significant strikes have landed to the body and 26 percent have landed to the legs.
Cerrone clearly makes a concerted effort to vary his targets, and he also is extremely accurate when striking to the body and the legs. He has landed 72 percent of his significant body-shot attempts and 84 percent of his significant attempts to an opponent's leg.
If he sticks with this strategy against Iaquinta, it will likely lead him to success. Iaquinta's striking defense has been rather poor when dealing with body and leg attacks. He has managed to avoid only 34 percent of his opponents' significant body strikes and 21 percent of that type of blow to his legs. As both fighters land at nearly identical rates, Cerrone could find that he has an edge by mixing up his targets and taking advantage of Iaquinta's apparent defensive liabilities.
Knockdowns
One of the obvious reasons fighters throw mostly head shots is that those strikes are the most likely to cause knockdowns or finish fights. Despite landing a smaller share of his overall significant strikes to the head, Cerrone has had the slightly better track record when it comes to scoring knockdowns.
During his extensive career, "Cowboy" has landed 23 knockdowns, or 0.90 knockdowns per 15 minutes of fight time. Iaquinta has spent a lot less time in the cage, but his seven knockdowns still equate to a lesser knockdown rate of 0.71 per 15. Even though he is slightly behind Cerrone when it comes to landing knockdowns, Iaquinta has never been knocked down himself. Cerrone, on the other hand, has been sent to mat seven times in his UFC/WEC career.
Though allowing seven knockdowns over a 40-fight career is not particularly worrisome, there did appear to be a disturbing trend developing in Cerrone's recent past. He surrendered only three knockdowns through the first nine years of his UFC/WEC career. In the waning days of 2016, Cerrone pulled out a third-round knockout victory over Matt Brown. Despite the win, he suffered his first knockdown since 2013. He hit the deck three more times over his next three fights. It was beginning to look like his chin might be failing him. However, since a 2017 loss against Darren Till, he has won three of his past four and absorbed 169 significant strikes without being knocked down.
If Cerrone's issues were simply the result of a string of tough opponents, he should not have any issues standing in the pocket and throwing power strikes in this fight. He might even become the first person to drop Iaquinta. However, if those knockdowns were a harbinger of chin decline, he may struggle to stay in the fight for 25 minutes.
Takedowns/ground offense
Though Cerrone has always had the reputation of a dangerous striker, he has also always had an underrated ground game. He uses his takedowns to both change the pace of fights and set up his slick submission game. For his UFC/WEC career, he has landed 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, 1.27 guard passes per takedown and 1.41 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has also made an impact with his striking on the ground, where he has outlanded his opponents in terms of significant strikes 146 to 69.
Iaquinta was relatively reliant on his wrestling early in his UFC run, but he has found success despite abysmal takedown numbers since 2014. He has landed only one of his past 21 takedown attempts and failed on his past 17 attempts. In his past two fights, he gave up nine takedowns, and he has surrendered 1.42 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC career.
These numbers, plus the fact that two of his three UFC losses are via submission, are rather disquieting for Iaquinta. However, his past two fights provide plenty of reason for optimism, at least in terms of defense. He survived 25 minutes against UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, who is perhaps the best ground striker in the history of the promotion. Iaquinta then withstood a ground assault from Kevin Lee before staging a comeback to take the decision.
Cerrone clearly has the advantage when it comes to ground fighting in this bout. Iaquinta has shown that he can survive on the ground, but he will need to put his stamp on this fight during the standing portions if he wants to pick up a victory over the veteran.