UFC strawweight champion Jessica Andrade puts her title on the line against Zhang Weili in Shenzhen, China, on Saturday.
Andrade has been statistically dominant since moving down to the 115-pound division, and captured the title in her most recent outing. Zhang is only three fights into her UFC career, but clear patterns and trends have already emerged through her career stats.
Here's a look at several key statistical categories that could turn out to be the determining factor this weekend.
Striking differential
Not only does Andrade hold the UFC strawweight title, but she also has the highest rate of significant strikes landed per minute among the ranked fighters in the division. She lands 6.55 significant strikes per minute, which is 41% higher than the average for a ranked fighter. Like many high-volume strikers, Andrade also leaves herself open for plenty of attacks from opponents. In the UFC she has absorbed 5.13 significant strikes per minute, which is the second-worst strike absorption rate for a ranked strawweight. Her resulting striking differential, which is significant strikes landed per minute minus significant strikes absorbed per minute, stands at +1.42, which is sixth among the ranked fighters in the division.
Zhang lags slightly behind Andrade in terms of offense, but it would be a stretch to call her a conservative striker. In her limited UFC experience, she has landed 5.49 significant strikes per minute. That is the sixth-highest rate among ranked strawweights, but it is probably more impressive that she has been able to maintain solid defense despite her above-average offense. Zhang absorbs only 2.17 significant strikes per minute, which leaves her with a +3.32 striking differential. Her differential and defensive strike absorption rate are below only those of ground specialist Tatiana Suarez among ranked strawweights. Zhang's three UFC opponents -- Tecia Torres, Jessica Aguilar and Danielle Taylor -- collectively average 3.91 landed significant strikes per minute. She was able to hold all three below their regular striking rate.
If Zhang is able to have a similar effect with her defense on Andrade, she could put herself in position to win this fight. Slowing down Andrade has proved difficult for fighters in the UFC. On top of that, Andrade's rate has only risen since she dropped down to strawweight in 2016. In this weight class, she has landed 7.23 significant strikes per minute. In a lot of ways, this striking contest comes down to effective offensive volume versus defense. Andrade has been able to overwhelm her strawweight opponents with persistent volume, but Zhang could put a dent in that trend if her defense holds up.
Takedowns
While the striking battle is an interesting wrinkle, the wrestling game could easily be the determining factor in this fight. Andrade lands 3.22 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time, at a 58% success rate. Since moving down to strawweight her takedown rate has ticked up slightly to 3.57, and she has been able to hold her opponents down and make an impact with her grappling.
In terms of her defensive wrestling, Zhang is mostly untested in the UFC. She has faced only three takedown attempts, but the good news for her is that she stopped all three. However, all three of her UFC opponents have takedown averages well below the average for the division. Andrade will pose the first big test of her defensive wrestling ability. On the offensive front, Zhang has been successful. She has landed 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes, but it is hard to see that being part of her strategy in this fight.
If Andrade is able to score takedowns early and often, she should be able to cruise to a victory and might even score a stoppage. Zhang can make it a fight if she keeps that from happening. She has been successful with her takedown defense so far, but this will be a much tougher task.
Striking position
One of the key reasons Zhang needs to keep the fight standing is that Andrade has recently dominated opponents on the ground. Over the course of her UFC career, she has outlanded her opponents 130 to 13, in terms of significant ground strikes.
Prior to moving down to strawweight, Andrade did a vast majority of her striking at distance, with 72% of her landed significant strikes coming in the position defined as standing and not in the clinch. However, after moving down to the smaller division, she found the ability to hold position and score with strikes in the clinch and on the ground. Her portion of landed significant strikes in the clinch increased from 14% to 26%, and on the ground her success rate rose from 13% to 19%.
Ground striking has also been a point of strength for Zhang. She has outlanded her opponents 55 to 3 on the floor. However, 39 of those 55 landed significant strikes came in one fight, against Aguilar.
Striking target
One early adage of MMA says that a striker can minimize a wrestler's takedown advantage by landing hard leg kicks early in the fight. The idea is that with a compromised leg, the wrestler will have trouble pushing off and exploding for takedowns. If Zhang wishes to employ this strategy against Andrade, her stats certainly indicate that she has that skill. During her UFC career, 33% of her landed significant strikes have come against her opponents' legs. She lands 89% of her attempted leg strikes and averages 1.81 significant leg strikes per minute.
Andrade is much more of a head hunter, as 67% of her significant strikes have been to the head. On top of that, she is extraordinarily open to absorbing leg kicks. During her UFC career, she has avoided only 7% of her opponents' leg kick attempts. In her last loss, she allowed then-champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk to land 75 of her 78 leg strike attempts.
Many of the stats point to Andrade scoring takedowns and dominantly working from the top position. However, Zhang could easily turn the tide if she is able to make an impact with her leg-striking offense.