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          Olg's Notebook: Chris Goulding reaching new heights, Kings reverting to drop coverage

          • Olgun Uluc, ESPN Basketball Insider
          Dec 20, 2023, 05:34 AM

          Every week, ESPN's Olgun Uluc runs through what's catching his eye across the NBL, and takes you inside the conversations trickling around the Australian basketball ecosystem. This week, he looks at the rapid improvement of Chris Goulding, the defensive alterations made by the Sydney Kings, and whether the Brisbane Bulllets will be signing an import.

          Chris Goulding is doing what he does best... but way more

          The season Goulding is having is quite astounding.

          At 35, he's putting up both his most productive and efficient season as a member of Melbourne United. The counting stats are very impressive -- 18.6 points per game, shooting 43.4 percent from downtown -- and shouldn't be overlooked. But the thing that stands out most is how he's getting that production, because that's where he's evolved as a player.

          Goulding is averaging 10.4 three-point attempts per game -- a 78 percent three-point rate (3PR), according to SpatialJam -- which are both career-highs and current NBL season-highs.

          The volume is insanely large and, as the three-ball has become more prevalent across world basketball, the trend of Goulding shooting a higher percentage of his shots from downtown has followed. Over his last nine seasons, this has been his 3PR, chronologically: 58, 61, 67, 63, 69, 71, 73, 70, 78.

          "It's kind of personnel driven," Goulding told ESPN. "We've got guys whose strengths lie in other areas, so for me to wheel into on-ball after on-ball after on-ball is sometimes taking other guys out of areas where they work best. Being able to piece myself into where I fit, and still be aggressive and still hunt shots with the evolution of the game -- we're shooting more threes than ever -- I think that's been a big part of it; not creeping into other players' area of expertise and making sure everyone's getting a steady diet of what they need. Then, I can find what I need."

          Goulding finds his threes in a multitude of ways. He remains a high-level spot-up threat (1.22 PPP), and is among the NBL's most efficient producers coming off hand-offs (1.41 PPP, on a league-high 55 plays). It's helpful when you play alongside guys like Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova -- two of the league's best creators, who excel at getting Goulding the ball -- but then there are those ridiculous shots. They're the ones that no-one else in the league can make on a consistent basis. And, they're those no-one else is really allowed to take.

          Goulding insists his extremely tough shot-taking came naturally, without any instruction or explanation to or from head coach Dean Vickerman.

          "It's not really a conversation we had but, I guarantee you, a conversation will be had if I push it too far, or if I'm not making 'em, or if I miss open teammates, or it's not for the good of what we do," Goulding said.

          "You have to have confidence in what we do. We have confidence in Shea do go up and guard the best players in the league and affect the game that way, we have confidence in Delly to call plays on the fly... we have confidence in Jo [Lual-Acuil Jr.] to put the ball on the deck, [Ian Clark] can shoot better than anyone I've seen... it's the environment we wanna create, getting strengths out of everyone."

          Goulding insists he doesn't keep track of these sorts of numbers - "I don't look at all of the advanced stats; I promise you I have no idea about it," he said - because he's excelled in the NBL long enough that any and all milestones just melt into each other as general successes. From the outside, though, there's been a league-wide appreciation of the season Goulding is having, especially at this point in his career.

          Over the past six NBL seasons, Goulding has logged at least 800 minutes, and that's obviously not counting what he does in between: from Australian Boomers campaigns to off-seasons in Europe. And so, with the passage of time comes an adjustment in preparation.

          "I'm 35; my body's gonna allow me, earlier in the week, to then build up and prepare in a manner of: hey, I think I'm gonna get these sort of looks, the plays we run more often than not result in this look," Goulding said.

          "So, I go into games confident that I've practiced the shots that, for the most part, are gonna unfold."

          From the nature and selection of the shots he takes, to shifting how he prepares, this is all a part of the evolution of Chris Goulding. This current iteration may be the best one we've ever seen.

          Sydney Kings revert to old faithful

          Mahmoud Abdelfattah and the Kings heard all week long about how leaky their defence was, and why fixing it should be priority No. 1.

          The Kings had dropped to the bottom half of the league in defensive rating, and it looked like they hadn't found a way to operate sustainably on that end of the floor; they went from switching everything to a leaky zone, so the coaching staff needed to search for answers.

          The answer, at least for one game, was going to what's worked for this roster over the last few seasons: a healthy dose of drops.

          Drop coverage to guard on-balls is what Chase Buford leant heavily on over his two seasons as head coach in Sydney, and Will Weaver did the same before him. It was largely effective, especially during Buford's reign, where the Kings were consistently one of the best defensive teams in the NBL and earned a pair of championships out of it. So, it made sense for this group to give it a shot.

          The Kings were able to contain those Jordon Crawford pick-and-rolls in a more sustainable way, forcing the the Tasmania JackJumpers into relatively low quality looks for the majority of the game. The increased effort and urgency also played a big role in Sydney's success on that end, but the schematic difference clearly played a big role: the JackJumpers, who went into the game as a top-two offence, were held to a season-low in Offensive Rating (104.2).

          It wasn't perfect. The JackJumpers put Jack McVeigh in some of those on-balls toward the end of the game to be a shooting threat, and being in a drop coverage makes it difficult for the big defender to get a hand out if the screener pops. Still, it was an effective coverage for the Kings for the vast majority of the game, so it wouldn't be surprising to see a healthy dose of the same thing against the New Zealand Breakers, who, according to jordanmcnbl.com, have the league-leader in pick-and-roll plays in Parker Jackson-Cartwright.

          DJ Mitchell out, an import in?

          It's unfortunate news out of the Brisbane Bullets camp, with DJ Mitchell set to miss the remainder of the 2023-24 NBL season with a hip injury, sources told ESPN.

          The sharp-shooting forward had been dealing with the issue for a few games, but it got to a point where he'll be forced to sit out, leaving the Bullets with a hole in the frontcourt.

          The Bullets' initial plan, sources say, is to engage with the import market. They currently only have two imports, with Aron Baynes and Nathan Sobey set to be classified as marquee players, but they do have the ability change that classification to bring in a third import. Going into Round 12, the Bullets have a bottom-two offence -- scoring just 108.2 points per 100 possessions, per RealGM -- so an import search would begin with bolstering that side of the floor.

          They'll need to be quick, though, because a player needs to be active in seven regular season games in order to be eligible to play in the playoffs. The Bullets have 12 games remaining on their schedule.

          In the meantime, Matt Johns will be elevated to the playing roster. Should the Bullets not end up pulling the trigger on an import in time, sources say the team is comfortable moving forward with Johns in a slightly elevated role.

          Let's see what plays out.

          My favourite plays of the week

          The Breakers are the king of hunting mismatches. Here, Parker Jackson-Cartwright gets his preferred defender in front of him, then dances his way to the rim.

          We know what Mantas Rubštavičius is as a shooter and scorer, but he showed some really cool creation flashes in other areas.

          The Illawarra Hawks opened their win over the Phoenix over the weekend with this set.

          In both of these Goulding passes, there's a slight look-off to Ili in the corner. That freezes that potential help defender to get the big more open for the bucket.