The most important element of the NFL draft is picking the right players. The hardest part of the NFL draft is picking the right players. Study after study suggest the ability to pick prospects is overwhelmed by randomness and variance.
Players can struggle to stay healthy. The coach who drafted a player might get fired and replaced by someone who runs a different scheme. College success might not translate to the professional level. Even if a general manager is great at scouting talent, he might get only a couple of drafts before he gets fired. This stuff is hard. GMs can't control how the prospects they pick will pan out, but they do have more control over what they do in terms of moving up, down and around the board during draft weekend.
Let's focus on those decisions and run through each of the 31 picks in the first round of the 2023 draft. I'll identify whether each team can make a stronger argument toward moving up, down or staying put at each selection. Remember, there are only 31 selections because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-rounder for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. Giving away a first-round pick for nothing is a good way to ensure a team doesn't draft well.
To try to figure out what each team should be thinking on draft day, I'll look at how they should be approaching the draft given their current roster construction and expected success in 2023. For teams that have had the same brain trust in place for a number of years, I'll also consider the moves they've made in the past to inform how they typically approach Round 1 trades and whether they prefer moving up or down.
We'll start with a pick that already has been on the move. The Panthers acquired the No. 1 overall pick, and they won't deal it again ... right?
Jump to an interesting pick:
ARI at No. 3 | SEA at No. 5
NYJ at No. 13 | GB at No. 15
MIN at No. 23 | PHI at No. 30
1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI)
What they should do: Stay put.
Well, this pick already has been traded. There's not much logic in a team trading up for the No. 1 pick and then moving back down, but the Panthers have insisted they moved up without a specific player in mind. If you're skeptical of that claim, join the club, which is why I have them staying put here.
Let's take what the Panthers have suggested at face value. We can safely say that they moved up for a quarterback. If they were willing to settle for the third-best quarterback in this class, they should have been able to offer a lesser package to the Cardinals (to move up from No. 9 to No. 3) than the one they sent to the Bears. It seems plausible Carolina could be open to one of two quarterbacks, which would mean a move down to the No. 2 pick.
How much would the Texans really be willing to give to undo the Miracle of Lovie Smith and get their choice of quarterbacks at No. 1? And how much would the Panthers want to pass up that choice? Carolina could try to squeeze Houston for the 33rd pick, which is one of the most valuable selections in the entire draft after accounting for cost. That deal might look great by most (advanced) draft value charts, but if the Texans end up landing the best quarterback by moving up, Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer wouldn't hear the end of it for the rest of his career.
I don't think the Panthers realistically should or will trade down, but, well, they can't trade up.
