Let's break down what has gone right (and wrong) for the four NFL teams that have seen their 2023 postseason chances improve most dramatically. I'll be getting help from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), which projected each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs before the season and has done so again after each ensuing week.
Three of these four teams -- each of which is 5-2 -- are from the AFC, which shouldn't be a surprise, because the NFC has basically been chalk so far. Think about the preseason expectations there. The Cowboys and Eagles were going to be the class of the NFC East. The 49ers and Seahawks were the two best teams in the NFC West. The NFC South was going to be a chaotic mess, and the Lions were expected to leap past the Vikings after Minnesota's luck from a year ago in close games ran out.
Through seven games, that's basically what has happened. There are three teams within a half-game of one another in the South, and the teams most everyone expected to stand out in the NFC are doing so in reality. Before the season, the FPI projected the Eagles, Lions, Saints, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks and Falcons to be the seven playoff teams in the NFC. And after seven weeks, the FPI ... projects the same seven teams to make it to the postseason out of the NFC.
There have been more dramatic shifts in the AFC, which is why three of our four biggest risers reside there. With Aaron Rodgers out for the season, the Bengals off to a slow start, the Titans seemingly ready to give up and rebuild and the Chargers in a 12-round battle against themselves every week, the FPI has a different vision on that side of the playoff bracket. It starts with a team that finally appears set to win its first playoff game since 2000:
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Jump to a team:
Dolphins | Jaguars
Lions | Ravens
Miami Dolphins
Preseason playoff chances: 52%
Current playoff chances: 93.8%
Difference: plus-41.8%
Even with the Dolphins struggling through a difficult loss to the Eagles on Sunday night, their 5-2 record atop the AFC East leaves them in prime position to claim their first division title since 2008. They still have a game in Germany against the Chiefs before their Week 10 bye, but their schedule clears out afterward. They get the Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets again over a five-week span, potentially with cornerback Jalen Ramsey back on the field. If they can win four of those five games and lock in nine wins, they'll be back in the playoffs.
Miami has exceeded expectations on offense this season, but part of the FPI's optimism about its postseason chances undoubtedly relates to what has happened in the AFC East. The Bills blew out the Dolphins in Week 4, but they've lost their best overall defender (Matt Milano) and best corner (Tre'Davious White) to season-ending injuries, while the Buffalo offense has averaged just under 20 points per game over the past three weeks. The Bills look vulnerable, and the Dolphins will like their chances in their Week 18 rematch.
The Jets are 3-3, but their ceiling is capped with Zach Wilson filling in for Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. And while the Patriots pulled an upset win over the Bills out of their hat last weekend, Mac Jones and New England have looked lost for most of their 2-5 start. What looked to be a division with as many as four great teams might have only one by the end of the season. The Dolphins have to hope they can have fewer injuries over the next three months.