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Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the biggest games of NFL Week 16

Mark Ingram and the Saints' strong running game could give the Steelers trouble this Sunday. Will Vragovic/Getty Images

No Thursday game this week, but we'll keep up the Saturday streak as two playoff wannabes from the mid-Atlantic region look to keep hope alive on the day traditionally reserved for colleges.

Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games: Thursday's (when scheduled), Sunday's and Monday's prime-time games and the top 1 p.m. ET and 4 p.m. ET Sunday matchups (and this week, Saturday too). Straight-up picks, but you have to hit all five (or in this case, six). Then we calculate how much you would earn for the parlay, using Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines can be found here.)

Total payout for Week 16 Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in six games): $1,147.72 on $100 wager


Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (4:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NFL Network)

Money line: Titans -600
FPI projection: Titans win by 9.3 points

With Josh Johnson at the helm, FPI has very little confidence in Washington's offense. The Titans, who don't exactly boast an explosive attack, are considered almost 4 points per game on offense better than Washington. -- Seth Walder

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (8:20 p.m. ET Saturday, NFL Network)

Money line: Chargers -240
FPI projection: Chargers win by 10.9 points

FPI actually thinks the Chargers are now the second-best (!) team in the NFL going forward behind the Saints. The Chargers are barely ahead of AFC West rival Kansas City, though. As for the Ravens, FPI now thinks they are slightly better with Lamar Jackson at quarterback instead of Joe Flacco. But FPI still thinks little of that Baltimore offense. -- Seth Walder

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Money line: Eagles -120
FPI projection: Eagles win by 2.3 points

The Eagles have the fourth-best pass-rush win rate in the NFL despite blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate. Houston is the better team by a little bit, but the Eagles' home-field advantage trumps that. -- Seth Walder

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Money line: Saints -250
FPI projection: Saints win by 8.1 points

The difference between the strength of the Saints' offense (FPI rating: +10.0) and the Steelers' (+4.9) is surprisingly far larger than the difference between the Steelers and lowly Lions (-0.1). -- Seth Walder

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)

Money line: Chiefs -135
FPI projection: Chiefs win by 0.7 points

FPI doesn't overestimate recency. So, even though the Chiefs haven't been quite as prolific in their past few games, FPI now considers them the best offense in the league.-- Seth Walder

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN)

Money line: Broncos -145
FPI projection: Broncos win by 3.6 points

If you've watched these teams play, then you know they are both a mess on offense. The difference? Denver has a good defense (+3.3, fourth-best in NFL); Oakland doesn't (-3.8, second-worst). -- Seth Walder

Final parlay: Titans, Chargers, Eagles, Saints, Chiefs, Broncos

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.