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Who will win the Stanley Cup? All signs point to the West

Max Hopmans illustration. Credits from left: Damon Tarver/CSM/AP Images; Billy Hurst/AP Images; Harry How/Getty Images

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LOYAL MAG READERS might recall that last year we tried to pick the Stanley Cup winner by comparing playoff teams' performance in the four statistical markers shared by NHL champs over the past decade: goaltending, penalty killing, playoff experience and puck possession in clutch situations. The only team to clear each benchmark: the Blackhawks, the third seed out of the Central Division. Undaunted by their middling regular season, we declared that Chicago would claim last year's Cup. And the numbers didn't lie -- we were right!

So with the playoff puck set to drop tomorrow, we dusted off our formula again in the hope that it might once again single out our clear-cut Cup pick. But a funny thing happened on the road to clarity: In this year of great parity, no team met all four markers. And despite the Capitals' conference dominance and the late-season surge of the Penguins, no team from the East was even close.

But since some team will win the Cup, we looked closer, and the answer was as easy as 1 ... 2 ... 3 ...


1. Singing the Blues

Our first threshold holds on a basic notion: Don't let the other team score. Enter Blues goalie Brian Elliott, whose .939 adjusted save percentage says he can carry a team. Of the past 10 Cup-winning starters, only Tim Thomas (.951) tops Elliott. Too bad the Blues clear only one other benchmark. So we're still looking for our Cup pick ...

ADJUSTED 5v5 SAVE PERCENTAGE*

*Save percentage in even-strength situations adjusted for shot quality, courtesy war-on-ice.com.
**Fleury and Halak will be their teams' primary starters once they return from injury.


2. One Cup, two Cup, three Cup ... four?

It's hard to argue that any team knows more about winning the Cup than Chicago, which claimed its third title in six years last June. So it comes as no surprise that the 1,410 games of playoff experience on its roster leads the NHL. Winger Marian Hossa's 194 career playoff games is second among active players, and coach Joel Quenneville has roamed the bench for 204 playoff tilts, third all time. But the Hawks fail on two metrics. Can't anoint them! So ...

PLAYOFF GAMES PLAYED ON ROSTER


3. Quack, quack, kill

If penalty killing is critical in the playoffs (it is), Ducks defenseman Josh Manson is a man you want on your side. He's part of a four-man unit (along with Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg and Hampus Lindholm) that snuffs out an amazing 87.2 percent of man advantages. "Any time you can get a kill, it gives momentum to your team," Manson says. (Manson's 2.84 short-handed goals against per 60 minutes ranks first among defensemen with at least 100 PK minutes.) That's a great sign: Of the past 10 champs, seven had a top-10 man-down quartet. Problem for Anaheim is that its 12:28 penalty minutes per game also tops the NHL. Bad sign. And the Ducks clear no other benchmarks! So ...

PENALTY-KILL PERCENTAGE


4. The hands of the Kings

Last, not least, we come to puck possession in tight games, which correlates so strongly to Cup success that it trumps all other metrics: Of the past 10 Cup winners, four led the NHL in Corsi-for close. And so we're predicting the Kings will be the winners of their third Cup in five seasons. LA is strong in two other metrics: Its roster is experienced, and Jonathan Quick remains an adept playoff goalie. But LA dominates Corsi-for close, generating 56.4 percent of shots in close games, the NHL's best by 3 percentage points. All hail Corsi. All hail the Kings.

CORSI-FOR CLOSE PERCENTAGE*

*Puck possession rate (percentage of shot attempts -- shots on goal, shots wide of goal, blocked shots -- for a team out of total shot attempts) when the score is within a goal in the first two periods or tied thereafter, courtesy war-on-ice.com.