Every season assumes a particular identity, and this one is undoubtedly about two newly-formed "super teams" in New York and Las Vegas.
The Liberty and Aces are +120 title co-favorites, as they also contain the top four MVP betting favorites.
Their success is expected to such a degree that Caesars Sportsbook is offering a prop that one will win the championship at -800 and the field of the 10 other teams at +500.
In addition to those two teams bringing in star power, we have also seen talent change teams across the entire league. Additionally, the regular season schedule has expanded to 40 games.
That all sets the stage for betting value in what I would classify as an unknown and soft betting market.
Favorite Plays
New York Liberty over 29.5 wins: This necessitates a .750 win percentage, which is very close to what both the Las Vegas Aces and Chicago Sky achieved last year with a .722 clip. Given the offseason moves to build this "super team", that is more than doable. They added former MVPs in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, who complement Sabrina Ionescu incredibly well. I also love the depth with Stefanie Dolson, Han Xu and Marine Johannes off the bench. There is just so much to like with a team that enters the season on a mission and knows it needs to maintain focus to keep pace with another main contender in Las Vegas.
Washington Mystics over 24.5 wins: This all hinges on Elena Delle Donne and her expectation to play the entire season, rather than take off some games to preserve health. She is very much in the MVP conversation as Washington chases a top seed. And that's a key point for this prop. The Mystics will play with a chip on their shoulder due to the Liberty and Aces drawing so much attention. Natasha Cloud and Ariel Atkins are the perfect tandem alongside Delle Donne to embrace that underdog status and grind out wins, as they return their entire starting lineup from last year's playoff run.
Connecticut Sun over 22.5 wins: Rather than focus on what they lost with Jonquel Jones and Courtney Williams, I am focusing on what they do have -- and that is a big four that can produce a win percentage of .575 or better. Brionna Jones was considered a "sixth starter" and the team's second-leading scorer. Her production will now grow with a bigger role, DeWanna Bonner will continue to fill up a stat sheet, Tiffany Hayes will thrive now getting to play alongside such talent, and Alyssa Thomas will be the ultimate difference-maker. I bet her 50-1 and 25-1 to win MVP. She is such a force on defense and in transition, which is why she finished fourth last year in MVP voting. They had to replace head coach Curt Miller, but I am not too concerned with that, as Stephanie White has enough experience. I also like the prop of +550 to win at least 25 games.
Dallas Wings under 20.5 wins: Arike Ogunbowale will single-handedly win games with her knack for late-game heroics, but she is also a high-volume shooter whose career-high field goal percentage for a season is only 41.2%. They lost their second- and third- leading scorers but add Natasha Howard while also expecting Teaira McCowan to continue her blossoming production. I have consistently doubted McCowan's All-Star potential, but she thrived in the starting role last year and could certainly continue to produce. However, all these moves and a new coach portray a scenario with too many changes to figure it all out on the fly, and I do not anticipate a .500 season. Also, it was announced Wednesday that Diamond DeShields would miss extended time due to a knee injury. I also would play +520 to miss the playoffs. In my eyes, it should be +200.
Atlanta Dream over 20.5 wins: Budding star Rhyne Howard hit a bit of a rookie wall but also lacked some consistency overall, as she tended to only thrive against the bottom-tier teams. But she is a true talent, and I expect her to take a giant step forward, and the entire supporting cast should also improve. Allisha Gray comes over from Dallas to replace the production lost with Hayes. I also have high hopes for Danielle Robinson and Aari McDonald in the backcourt. Armed with a smothering and versatile defense, this should be an above-.500 team. And if you are feeling frisky, 24-1 odds on 25+ wins is not that crazy.
Minnesota Lynx over 16.5 wins: The most probable path to cashing this ticket is second overall pick Diamond Miller adjusting quickly to the pro game and the team's strength in numbers with balance and depth. Aerial Powers and Kayla McBride should join Miller to form a solid core behind Napheesa Collier. I also think Tiffany Mitchell will excel after leaving a rebuilding situation in Indiana. I do think this team reaches 17+ wins but this is my least-strongest play and will likely become a huge sweat.