If the two best words in sports are "Game 7," then the three best must be "Two Game 7s." That's what we have on the menu Sunday, with the Pacers and Knicks vying for the last spot in the Eastern Conference finals and the Timberwolves battling the Nuggets for the final slot out West.
Both series have been full of monster performances, surprises, injuries and great action. As the conference semifinals come to a close, let's take a last look at Game 7 between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.
Timberwolves and Nuggets over 196.5 total points (-105). While Game 7s are notorious for strong defensive efforts and under-pressure players missing shots they might typically make, I still expect the Timberwolves and Nuggets to put some points on the board. These two teams have now played 10 times this season, including the regular season and the playoffs, and they have combined for fewer than 198 points only twice: in the Timberwolves' win by 26 points in Game 2 and their blowout by 45 points in Game 6. When the Nuggets win, even in blowouts, one or both teams have still put points on the board. With this Game 7 in Denver, I don't expect the Timberwolves to replicate the clamping defense of the aforementioned blowouts. According to BPI, these two teams project to 207.9 combined points Sunday.
Rudy Gobert over 11.5 rebounds (-125). Gobert missed Game 2, reportedly due to the birth of his child. When he returned in Game 3 he managed only four rebounds in a blowout loss. In the other four games in this series, Gobert has at least 11 boards in every game with an average of 13.0 RPG. Last game, the Timberwolves emphasized having Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid as the primary defenders for 3-time MVP Nikola Jokic. This frees up Gobert to play more help defense and crash the boards more, giving him a good chance to go over his rebounding line.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets
East Semifinals - Game 7
8:00 p.m. Ball Arena, Denver
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 56-26 (40-39-3)
Nuggets: 57-25 (38-42-2)
Line: Nuggets (-4.5) Total: 197.5
Money Line: Timberwolves (+165), Nuggets (-195)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 2.1, straight up 57%, 207.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Mike Conley, (GTD - Achilles); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles)
Nuggets: Jamal Murray, (GTD - Calf); Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Collin Gillespie, (OUT - Knee)