Who will be the AFL premier in 2024? By the end of the month we'll have the answer to this question, but a month is a long time to wait! So, on the eve of finals, we've ranked all eight teams and given each their chance of winning the flag.
There's no exact science to this, rather current vibes and a gut feel on how each team's September campaign might unfold, taking into account input from Champion Data as well.
8. CARLTON (3% premiership chance)
It's easy to look at the spluttering Blues and write their premiership chances off completely, but the team that runs out to face Brisbane at the Gabba on Saturday night will be bolstered with quality across every line. There's real shades of the 2016 Bulldogs with this side. Now, they may make too many changes and it comes back to bite them, but if the mix is right, they are more than capable, as they proved last year, to go on a serious September run. When healthy, Carlton was sitting second on the ladder. So we have proof of concept they can mix it with the best sides in the league. The Lions at the Gabba might be their toughest challenge. Win it, and their premiership odds are cut in half ... and in half again. It's unlikely, but it's certainly possible.
7. BRISBANE (7% premiership chance)
The Lions have more recent finals experience than any other team remaining, but if they are to go all the way, they're going to have to win three straight games on the road. Not to mention, they will first have to overcome a Carlton side that beat them on their own deck to open the season. We've only seen Brisbane tackle finals once from this position in the Chris Fagan era (2022) and it ended at the preliminary final stage. Yep, it's going to be extremely tough without the coveted double home final they enjoyed in 2019, 2020, and 2023. There's also some serious questions about just how good they are in 2024. The Lions have taken premiership points from 15 games this year, but only three of them were against fellow top eight sides. A month from now, we might look back at last year as even more of a missed opportunity.
6. GEELONG (8% premiership chance)
I'm not going to lie, I flirted with having the Cats dead last on this list, but the luxury of the double chance means they're guaranteed to live to fight another day no matter how they perform this week. I don't trust Geelong's midfield and we know finals are won and lost here. The Cats will start as significant outsiders on the road against Port Adelaide and a loss would set up a knockout semifinal at the MCG against either Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs, arguably the two most in-form sides in the competition. Call me crazy, but this has all of the makings of a straight sets exit. I'd be surprised if Geelong wins one final and utterly gobsmacked if they win two. I'll give them a slightly better than 1-15 shot at lifting the cup, and even that feels generous.
5. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9% premiership chance)
The Bulldogs are a tricky team to evaluate. There's no doubt they're one of the form sides of the competition, having won eight of their last 10 games, but without the buffer of the double chance every final will be must-win. Then again, they have thrived from this position before under Luke Beveridge; twice making the Grand Final from outside the top four (2016 and 2021). This year, they are scoring heavier than they did in those two campaigns. There's also a scenario where they only leave the MCG once en-route to the flag. That's the good news. The bad? The Bulldogs are 2-4 in their last six games at the MCG, where they will have to play at least two of the four finals required to win the premiership. They are also a mediocre 5-5 against the rest of the top eight this season.
4. HAWTHORN (12% premiership chance)
Take the first five weeks of the season out and the Hawks comfortably sit on top of the ladder. Even take away Darcy Byrne-Jones' last-gasp goal in Round 11 and they finish the home-and-away season in second spot. Don't let the ladder position or the list profile fool you; Hawthorn can definitely win this year's premiership. The Hawks won eight of their 14 games by 45+ points and have only really had one poor outing since April. Would I be more confident if they finished top four and earned the double chance? Of course. But I think they beat the Western Bulldogs at the MCG -- a venue they've won five straight games at -- this week and then face the Cats, also at the MCG, for a place in the preliminary finals. If they get that far, nobody will be happy to face them and they will feel as good a chance as anyone else.
3. GWS (15% premiership chance)
If you believe the Swans have lost form at the wrong time and that this season is as wide open as any in recent memory, then you simply must believe the Giants are a genuine chance at winning it all. If GWS beat Sydney in Saturday afternoon's impossible-to-pick qualifying final, they might just become flag favourites. If they lose it, it'll still be a home semifinal for a place in the last four. Don't forget, last year this side lost by a solitary point to eventual premier Collingwood in a preliminary final. This year, they may have the best list in the AFL. The Giants won seven straight games before falling to the Bulldogs at Mars Stadium in the final round of this home-and-away season, but there was no incentive for the Giants win that game (given a win would have sent them to Adelaide to play Port, but a loss kept them in Sydney to face the Swans). Plenty hinges on the first final, and for that, they have to be among the most likely teams to go all the way in 2024.
2. SYDNEY (21% premiership chance)
The Swans might have the highest ceiling of all eight finalists, but they don't have the clearest path to glory. As mentioned, this weekend's qualifying final against GWS is a true coin flip game, and nobody would be surprised if the younger brother beat them for a fourth straight time in September, which would set up a must-win semifinal against either Brisbane or a likely surging Carlton. Tough. But if they are to find a way past the Giants, things open up immensely. A home preliminary final awaits and they'd become overwhelming premiership favourites. Just as it is for GWS, so much hinges on this first game for Sydney. Their late season struggles are somewhat of a concern, but three straight wins to close the season might just have them rolling once more.
1. PORT ADELAIDE (25% premiership chance)
Are the Power the best team in the competition? Maybe. Maybe not. But can you definitively name a side that's better and more likely to lift the premiership cup? I think not. Port Adelaide has the greatest chance of any of the eight sides of playing in a preliminary final this season, one they would host at Adelaide Oval if they justify their favouritism on Thursday night and beat Geelong. That means they have a massive opportunity to reach the Grand Final for the first time in the Ken Hinkley era. Aside from the suspended Dan Houston and the hamstrung Kane Farrell, Port is close to full strength. Don't underestimate form, either. This side has won eight of its last nine games, including the past six on the spin. And over the course of the season it's beaten five of the other seven finalists.