When the FIBA World Cup 2023 opens on August 25 the 32 teams in the competition won't just be gunning for glory. Also at stake is a ticket to next year's Olympic Games in Paris.
Host country France is guaranteed one of the 12 spots up for grabs in the men's basketball event. An additional seven spots will be awarded at the end of the World Cup for the top finishers across different regions: Two each for the Americas and Europe and one each for Africa, Asia and Oceania. The remaining four will be awarded through a series of Olympic qualifying tournaments held around the world this month.
There are six Asian countries at the World Cup: Co-hosts Japan and the Philippines, along with China, Iran, Jordan, and Lebanon. In the 2019 World Cup, Iran bagged a slot for the Tokyo Olympics on the very last day of the competition.
Teams will carry over their World Cup group stage records into the next round, regardless of whether they advance. Countries that are knocked out will play in a series of games in the classification round.
Any win in the group stage will help a team's cause. Obviously going into the classification stage with a 0-3 record greatly diminishes a team's chance of finishing higher than the others.
In the case of a tie, point differential will be used to determine ranking. It's what helped Iran (plus-7) edge out China (minus-10) for top place among Asian teams four years ago after both sides finished with 2-3 records. So if you're going to lose, don't get blown out.
Will Iran repeat the feat, or will China bounce back after a disappointing result as World Cup hosts four years ago? Will the two co-hosts maximize their homecourt advantage, or will long shots Lebanon or Jordan pull off a Cinderella run? Let's break down each country's chances.
China
FIBA ranking: 27th
Group stage opponents: Serbia (6th), Puerto Rico (20th), South Sudan (62nd)
China couldn't capitalize on playing at home in 2019 -- failing to make it out of the group stage and then losing to Nigeria in the classification round to finish 24th, a spot below Iran.
Of the six teams from Asia this time around, China appears to be in the most favorable bracket with a chance of advancing to the second round. While beating a topnotch team like Serbia, even without Nikola Jokic, seems farfetched, they should be able to handle World Cup rookie South Sudan. The big question mark is Puerto Rico. Here's where China's recent recruitment of NBA guard Kyle Anderson could prove to be the difference maker.
Should China fail to advance to the second round, they're still in a good spot in the classification stage as they'll take on the third and fourth-placers of Group A, which could be Angola and -- let's face it -- the Philippines.
Iran
FIBA ranking: 22nd
Group stage opponents: Spain (1st), Brazil (13th), Ivory Coast (42nd)
Iran holds the highest spot among the Asian countries in the FIBA rankings. Unfortunately they got drawn into a very tough group that includes No. 1 Spain and No. 13 Brazil. Beating either of those teams is a very long shot, so their game against Ivory Coast will be crucial.
Iran's win over Angola in the 2019 classification stage proved key to their final standing. So a win over Ivory Coast isn't impossible. After that, it gets rough: Waiting in the classification round will likely be Lebanon and Latvia, with neither team an easy out.
Japan
FIBA ranking: 36th
Group stage opponents: Australia (3rd), Germany (11th), Finland (24th)
Already without their best player Rui Hachimura, co-hosts Japan landed in an even tougher group than Iran. Even with the home crowd behind them, it's difficult to see the Samurai Blue winning against any of their NBA-reinforced opponents. On paper Finland might be the easiest of the three, but even that's a very tough opponent with Lauri Markkanen seeing action.
The classification stage won't get any easier, with Japan likely facing Georgia and Cape Verde.
Jordan
FIBA ranking: 33rd
Group stage opponents: United States (2nd), Greece (9th), New Zealand (26th)
Like Japan, Jordan faces the very real prospect of going 0-3 in the group stage. Forget about beating the US and Greece, and even if they play a perfect game against the Tall Blacks that still might not be enough.
The classification stage will see Egypt and either Mexico or Montenegro, with Egypt providing the best chance of exiting the tournament with a win.
Lebanon
FIBA ranking: 43rd
Group stage opponents: France (5th), Canada (15th), Latvia (29th)
Lebanon are in the same boat as Japan and Jordan. All three of its opponents stand head and shoulders above it, with a double-digit loss in each game very possible.
In the classification round, Iran and Ivory Coast loom, with both teams beatable. But even then, will a 2-3 record be enough after the expected beatdown Lebanon will receive in the group stage?
The Philippines
FIBA ranking: 40th
Group stage opponents: Italy (10th), Dominican Republic (23rd), Angola (41st)
Gilas Pilipinas are in the same boat as Iran: One beatable but still tough foe from Africa (Angola), one team from the Americas that's taller and more experienced (Dominican Republic), and one European powerhouse that's in the top 10 of the rankings.
Against Angola, a team that beat them in overtime in 2019, Gilas should be encouraged by their success against Senegal in their recent pocket tournament. A win here would be the most realistically optimistic outcome for the co-hosts.
Beating a team that has Karl-Anthony Towns on opening day would be a sweet bonus, but would require a virtually perfect game. Even with a home crowd, Italy will very likely be too good. With point differential a huge factor in the classification round, Gilas would do well to not repeat their 46-point blowout loss from 2019 to the Gli Azzurri.
South Sudan and either China or Puerto Rico will likely the Philippines opponents in the classification round. Should Gilas make a spirited run to the second round, Serbia and either Puerto Rico or China loom.