The TNT Tropang Giga are aiming to make the Philippine Cup finals for the second year in a row. The San Miguel Beermen are out to make their first finals since winning the last of their All-Filipino five-peat in 2019. Their opponents then were the Magnolia Hotshots, who are also trying to make it back to the Philippine Cup finals after losing to the Beermen in 2019. Finally, the Meralco Bolts fell just short last year thanks to a Scottie Thompson triple, and look to advance to their first Philippine Cup finals in franchise history. How will the two semifinals series, both of which get going on Sunday, play out? We asked five of our PBA experts.
1. How can SMB win their semifinal series against TNT?
Chuck Araneta: Capitalize on their height advantage. With June Mar and Moala Tautuaa playing at a high level, the Beermen can theoretically have a post player on the floor at all times that can open up the floor for the Beermen's shooters. Another way - simply to stay healthy. Terrence Romeo and Alex Cabagnot have been in and out of the lineup all conference long. Will they be able to play at a high level against the top team in the elims?
Charlie Cuna: San Miguel needs to be playing at the level it should as a whole. The lineup is stacked! There are bench players that can start even on this same team, and the first eight (Fajardo, Santos, Lassiter, Cabagnot, Ross, Romeo, Tautuaa, and Perez) is an all-star team in itself. Everyone is back and "healthy" (maybe not at 100%, but healthy enough), and the sky is the limit really, such that, if the Beermen play at the level expected of the big names comprising the lineup, then maybe SMB can penetrate the pesky defense of TNT and up-end the higher seed. Note that all the big names on the roster play both sides of the court well. Just a tough and title-hungry (they missed it last year after five straight) lineup that can go all the way.
Carlo Pamintuan: When they are firing on all cylinders, SMB is impossible to stop. They have so many weapons with Alex Cabagnot and Terrence Romeo now coming back from injuries. The Beermen can overpower the Tropang Giga with their impressive offensive arsenal. It all starts with posting up June Mar Fajardo and spread the floor around with four players who can make their triples including their power forward Arwind Santos.
When the Beermen are dealing with quicker and smaller defenders who can close out on shooters, they can play two bigs with Fajardo joined by Mo Tautuaa.
Jutt Sulit: SMB will need to be able to tap into their six-time MVP. There are so many incredible talents on the team but June Mar Fajardo remains to be the toughest match up - not just for TNT but for the entire league.
Eros Villauneva: By imposing the full weight of its offensive talent against TNT's elite defense. In 11 elimination round games, no team had a better offensive rating than San Miguel's 106.8 -- a figure that offset a defense that hovered barely above league average. The Tropang Giga are an elite defensive unit, but successfully locking down the Beermen four times in a best-of-seven series might be easier said than done.
2. How can TNT win their semifinal series against SMB?
Chuck: The Tropang Giga have found ways to dominate opponents because of their diversity on offense and athleticism. Aside from that, they have the best defensive rating among all the teams left in the semis. Mikey Williams will have a huge role to play, and Chris Ross will have a heck of time chasing him around and limiting his penetration.
Charlie: TNT has to play superb defense, the way it has in its past few games, or probably at an even higher level. Offensively, San Miguel is just so potent, so, rather than try to outscore the Beermen, TNT might do better to hunker down on defense, and try to limit what could potentially be the most efficient scoring team in the PBA. TNT can match SMB, more or less, on a man for man basis, and TNT has some scoring punch of its own (Mikey Williams, Castro, Pogoy, etc.), but if running up the scoreboard is its game plan of choice, it might find itself reeling. The collective defense of players like Erram, Kelly Williams, Reyes, and Rosario, has to click for practically the entire 48, to keep SMB at bay.
Carlo: Defense will be the name of the game for TNT against SMB. The Tropang Giga have been excellent on defense all conference long.
TNT is the best team in points allowed and field goal percentage allowed, going up against the top scoring team in SMB. The Tropang Giga, on average, allow only 78.3 points per game while the Beermen score 97.2 per contest so it would be a big challenge for TNT to slow SMB down and keep the scoring low.
Jutt: TNT's three-pointers will need to fall. If you look at the numbers, the Tropa hasn't been shooting all that well from deep. Kib Montalbo and Mikey Williams have shot well. But their usual suspects, RR Pogoy, Troy Rosario and Jayson Castro, are all shooting below 25 percent and that will need to improve.
Eros: Defense. During that same stretch, TNT bannered the top defense and posted a league-best 88.9 defensive rating -- about three points better than the second-best team. TNT lost in their last matchup against SMB last Sep. 8 because it could not get its offense going (33 percent from the field), but the Tropang Giga did force the Beermen to commit more turnovers (21) than assists (14). At the moment, no team might be more equipped to handle the hottest offense in the PBA today than TNT.
3. How can Magnolia win their semifinal series against Meralco?
Chuck: Speed up the game. Utilize their almost unstoppable transition attack with Jio Jalalon, Paul Lee and Calvin Abueva. Getting the Bolts in a running game will limit their chances to set up their impenetrable halfcourt defense.
Charlie: Magnolia needs to be the scrappier team, the one that gets the loose balls, the hustle points, the 50-50s. There is not much size on this squad, but the undersized batch of forwards (who can play multiple positions - Abueva, Corpuz, dela Rosa, Dionisio) and pesky guards (Barroca, Jalalon) must want to dive on the floor, follow misses, jump higher, run faster, and pour forth more effort than Meralco. That is what Magnolia thrives on: effort and hustle. When they control the passing lanes, keep themselves between opponent and basket, and earn more floor burns, the Hotshots are most effective. Magnolia simply outworks its opponents. If it outworks Meralco, it will have the edge. Also, focusing on slowing down Chris Newsome is key.
Carlo: Meralco is very difficult to read defensively as they rely on a lot of players to power their offense but Magnolia has a system that maximizes their squad's ability to make reads on defense and adjust along the way.
On offense, it will be all about setting up Ian Sangalang. If he establishes himself on the inside, especially if he starts drawing double teams, he'll open things up for his other teammates. Shooters such as Jerrich Ahanmisi, slashers like Jio Jalalon, and cutters like Rome Dela Rosa all benefit when the attention is on Sangalang.
Jutt: Deploy The Beast while still staying true to their system. In short, keep doing what they're doing. It's been the recipe for success for Manolia throughout the conference. They've let Calvin Abueva do his thing for as long as it stays within their plans as a team.
If they can get consistent 20-10 games from Sangalang, then Magnolia will be tough to beat.
Eros: Paul Lee and Calvin Abueva playing at their most optimal should do the trick, but that's not an easy task against a Bolts team that could throw able bodies at their best stars. The supporting cast, naturally, should step up, but from a team perspective, the Hotshots should continue making their free throws against a foul-prone Meralco defense; Magnolia has shot a league-best 77 percent on a 24.8 attempts (second-best), while the Bolts have committed the second-most fouls (23.7) out of any team in the final four.
4. How can Meralco win their semifinal series against Magnolia?
Chuck: Exact opposite - make it a halfcourt game against the Hotshots. Slowing down the pace of the game allows Meralco to run their offense at a more efficient rate, and on defense they have disciplined defenders on the perimeter and frontcourt.
Charlie: The Bolts must be mentally tough and focused. Magnolia will try to pound you into submission, not by imposing strength or size, but by pestering. The Hotshots will be right in the faces of the Bolts and contest everything. The defense and relentless style of play of Magnolia can get any opponent's goat, which can lead to loss of focus. If Meralco loses sight of the task at hand, and gets caught up in the little tips and scrapes and nudges, then Magnolia can make it suffer. Meralco cannot afford to make the little mistakes that it tends to, particularly when trying to protect a lead. To draw strength, the Bolts should always remember what they did to Magnolia in the elimination round - they completed a crazy comeback in the last minute and a half to snatch victory at the buzzer. That is the way Meralco should play this series from the get-go.
Carlo: They have the personnel to face off against Magnolia. Sangalang will be the centerpiece of the offense for the Hotshots but if Raymond Almazan is successful on single coverage, then Meralco's defense could hold. They have Cliff Hodge and Mac Belo to try and match the energy of Calvin Abueva.
The only issue might be their guards as Trevis Jackson is currently in the PBA's health and safety protocols while Aaron Black is still in the process of recovering from a hand injury. This puts a lot of pressure on Chris Newsome to set everything up on offense but if they can get good games from Anjo Caram, then the Bolts can definitely win the series.
Jutt: Meralco will need to be maximize the talent and depth of their roster - something they've done well so far. They are such a deep team with many guys willing and able to contribute. If they can consistently get those contributions from every single player, they will be difficult to stop.
Eros: A little more discipline on defense should help, because Meralco is still prone to fouling a lot. Also, it will benefit the Bolts if they can keep the Hotshots guessing on defense; at the moment, 11 guys are scoring more than five points a game for a balanced Bolts offense that posted a third-best 102.6 offensive rating in the elimination round. Anyone can have a big game at any night for coach Norman Black, and they have to hope that these guys continue stepping up in what should be a hard-fought series between two teams that are more or less equally matched.
5. Predictions for both series?
Chuck: Tropang Giga in 7, Hotshots in 6
Charlie: These predictions are tough and stressful for any of us to even try. Forced to forecast even with friends on all sides, I will say TNT in 7, Magnolia in 6, but very easily, these can be switched around as both series progress. Either way, these matchups will both be highly entertaining.
Carlo: Really tough to makes picks here. TNT and SMB are both loaded and play so differently so there might be blowouts in this series but it still should go the full route.
On the other side, Meralco and Magnolia look evenly matched on paper. In points scored per game, Magnolia is at 90.2 while Meralco is right behind at 89.2. In points allowed per game, Meralco is at 84.2 and Magnolia is at 83.7.
Expect a lot of tight matches between these two teams. The series could go long but it can also finish quickly. It all depends on which team will be steadier in the end game.
Jutt: These two series could go either way and that's what's exciting about the semis. It's tough but let's say SMB and Meralco both in 7 games.
Eros: TNT in 7, Magnolia in 6.