After weeks of intense competition in the 2024-25 PBA Commissioner's Cup, the playoff picture is nearly set. Teams have fought through the grueling elimination round, each game carrying the weight of their postseason aspirations. But as the dust settles, one final question remains -- who will claim the last spot in the quarterfinals?
With the final playdate of the conference crucial for quarterfinal seedings, a tie remained unresolved. Magnolia dominated the import-less Meralco, 129-92, creating a deadlock with NLEX, which had also secured a big win over Eastern last Wednesday. A playoff game is now necessary to break the tie, setting the stage for a high-stakes showdown between the two teams for the final quarterfinal berth.
This win-or-go-home battle is more than just a fight for survival-it's a test of resilience, strategy, and composure under pressure. Magnolia, riding the momentum of their dominant victory, will look to capitalize on their depth and experience. Meanwhile, NLEX, fueled by their own statement win, is eager to prove they belong in the playoffs. With everything on the line, expect an intense clash where every possession counts and every player must rise to the occasion.
Key for NLEX: Getting more scoring besides Mike Watkins and Robert Bolick
NLEX's offensive system under head coach Jong Uichico revolves heavily around his two best players - import Mike Watkins and dynamic guard Robert Bolick. Whether it's a high pick-and-roll between them, an isolation post-up for Watkins, or Bolick creating shots on his own, their offense largely depends on this duo's ability to generate points.
This reliance is further reflected in their bench production throughout the eliminations, where NLEX averaged just 26.6 points per game from their second unit. The issue became even more apparent in their previous match-up against Magnolia, where their bench managed only 16 points, highlighting how much the team leans on its starters to carry the load.
There have been good signs in this three-game winning streak for NLEX, especially in their victory over Rain or Shine, where they dropped 32 bench points, mostly from Anthony Semerad and Kevin Alas. They will need support from their second stringers when called upon to provide NLEX additional firepower against a stout Magnolia defense.
X-factor for NLEX: Jonnel Policarpio
It could be easily pinpointed that the shooters of NLEX will be the difference for this game, but a number of 32.9 perimeter points isn't something they can bank on. Even in their last win over Eastern, they only made five triples but still had a convincing win. So the insertion and recent play of Policarpio definitely adds another dimension to their offense.
While NLEX's perimeter shooting remains inconsistent, Policarpio has emerged as a reliable play finisher, thriving off cuts, transition opportunities, and well-timed feeds from Bolick and Watkins. His ability to convert high-percentage looks has made him a valuable scoring option, especially when defenses collapse on NLEX's primary scorers.
Beyond just finishing plays, Policarpio has also shown flashes of self-creation, displaying improved footwork and the ability to attack closeouts. Policarpio's last three games have trended towards the right direction with numbers of 10 points on 53.7 TS% - including a breakout game of 17 points and nine rebounds performance versus Phoenix. While he may not be a go-to option, his versatility gives NLEX another layer of offense - one that could be essential in a grind-it-out battle against Magnolia.
Key for Magnolia: Will the current offensive surge continue?
This offensive surge has been a collective effort, with multiple players stepping up to complement Ricardo Ratliffe's dominant inside presence. While Ratliffe remains the focal point, Magnolia has found ways to diversify their attack, making them much harder to defend. Against Phoenix, their perimeter shooters answered the call, stretching the floor by hitting 13 3s on 39.3% and punishing defensive lapses. In contrast, their battles against Eastern and Meralco saw them relentlessly attacking the paint as they averaged 59 points in the shaded area for those two games.
What makes this even more impressive is the collective trust within the team. Ball movement has been crisp, decision-making has been sharp, and contributions have come from all over the lineup. Whether it's finding the open man beyond the arc or spamming post-ups for their bigs, Magnolia's offense has been clicking at just the right time. With this well-rounded approach, they enter their do-or-die showdown against NLEX not just as a defensive force but as a team firing on all cylinders offensively.
X-factor for Magnolia: Zavier Lucero
In this current winning streak of Magnolia, Zavier Lucero's play off the bench has been nothing short of outstanding. Averaging 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on an impressive 76.9 TS%, Lucero has proven to be a dynamic and versatile weapon for Magnolia. His ability to provide a scoring spark as a reserve has been crucial in their offensive success, adding an extra layer of depth that keeps opponents honest. Whether it's creating plays for teammates or stepping up as the go-to scorer in crucial moments, Lucero has been a reliable contributor when his team needs him the most.
What makes Lucero particularly valuable is his versatility on the offensive end. He's shown the ability to score in a variety of ways, from driving to the basket with explosive finishes to draining perimeter jumpers with confidence. His skill set allows him to attack closeouts effectively, making him a threat both as a playmaker and scorer. This adaptability has allowed Magnolia to use him in multiple roles, giving them a weapon that can shift the game's momentum with his diverse offensive contributions. Lucero's ability to be a scoring option in transition or in half-court sets makes him even more dangerous, and his increased confidence has been evident in every game.
Aside from his offensive output, Lucero's impact has extended to the defensive end as well. His agility allows him to guard multiple positions, providing valuable defense when his team needs to stop an opponent's run. The energy and hustle he brings off the bench have made him a well-rounded contributor, adding both scoring and defense in a way that allows Magnolia to play at a faster pace and disrupt the flow of their opponents.