FOXBOROUGH, Mass. -- With the calendar turning to March, it brings the start of free agency that much closer. Teams can negotiate with player agents for unrestricted free agents from other teams starting March 12, with the free agency officially starting on March 14.
Meanwhile, teams can negotiate extensions with their own free agents at any point up until that time, which highlights the importance of understanding the financial market at various positions.
With this in mind, after looking closer at left tackle Nate Solder's potential market on Thursday, let's consider what ballpark the New England Patriots and free-agent-to-be running back Dion Lewis might be in when discussing a possible deal.
Lewis hits market on a high note: Lewis couldn't have planned it much better. He is 27, which is an ideal age when a team is considering an unrestricted free-agent running back, and he is coming off a season in which he led the Patriots in rushing (896 yards, 180 carries, 6 TDs) while chipping in as a pass-catcher (32 receptions, 214 yards, 3 TDs) and top kickoff returner (103-yard return for a TD). Sidelined by injuries at different times in past seasons, Lewis was healthy throughout the year and said on The Adam Schefter Podcast he missed only one practice all season, which was due to illness.
Market watch: One of the most recent deals at the top of the free-agent market was the Falcons extending Devonta Freeman in August 2017 with a pact that averaged $8.25 million per season and included $18 million in guaranteed money. In 2016, Lamar Miller signed a four-year, $26 million deal with the Texans as an unrestricted free agent ($14 million in guarantees), while Giovani Bernard re-signed with the Bengals on a three-year, $15.5 million pact. Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell represents the top of the market, having played on the $12.1 million franchise tag in 2017. Perhaps more relevant to the Patriots and Lewis are the deals the team struck last year with Mike Gillislee (two years, $6.4 million), Rex Burkhead (one year, $3.15 million) and James White (three-year extension, cash value of $12.69 million).
Patriots' cost replacement analysis: As director of player personnel Nick Caserio recently explained at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, when it comes to a free agent, "There is a cost component that certainly comes into play relative to their role and relative to the replacement cost or replacement player behind them." Lewis and Burkhead are unrestricted free agents, which leaves Gillislee and White as the lone running backs under contract for 2018. Lewis had outplayed Gillislee in 2017 and White fills a different role -- as the team's "passing back." The running back draft class is considered strong, and if Lewis signs elsewhere, the Patriots would obviously take a hard look in that area, which will be cheaper from an economic standpoint.
Final analysis: The running back market can be tough on players, which Lewis essentially noted on Schefter's podcast, and that's why he might be most inclined to go for the top offer. It's hard to imagine Lewis feeling good about accepting an offer in New England that didn't eclipse Gillislee's average of $3.2 million per year and Burkhead's average of $3.15 million, so that would likely be the floor in any talks. Meanwhile, the ceiling could be much higher, as Bernard's $5.1 million average would be the type of comparison I'd be looking for if playing the role of agent in this negotiation. Considering Lewis' injury history, I'd also weigh sacrificing a bit in the average-per-year category in favor of more guaranteed money.