We're now officially in the second half of the 2024 NFL season, and the playoff race is starting to take form. While the standings tell us a lot about teams' chances to reach the postseason, they don't tell us everything. Team strength, injuries, tiebreakers, future strength of schedule and more can shift those odds up or down and don't directly show up in the win (or loss) column.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder broke down all 32 teams into eight tiers of playoff hopes, ranging from clear Super Bowl contenders to those already looking ahead to 2025. There are various shades of gray in between, because for as much as we might feel we know about this NFL season, things could look quite different once Week 18 rolls around. The tiers are based on information from ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), betting lines, performance metrics, health status and some instinct.
Walder ranked the teams in each tier, though the real delineations are from tier to tier. ESPN's NFL Nation reporters also added a tangible second-half goal for the teams they cover, whether it's securing a first-round playoff bye or evaluating the future of the team's QB position. All statistical rankings are through Sunday night's Lions-Texans game, and playoff chances are from the FPI:
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Tier 1: The true Super Bowl contenders
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
Chances to make the playoffs: 99.9%
Chances to win the AFC West: 97.1%
Chances to make the Super Bowl: 29.7%
So quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the offense haven't been dominant. But they're around where they were last season (they're 11th in EPA per play this season, the same ranking as 2023), and I don't need to tell you how that turned out. And that's not even to mention the already-logged wins and the third-easiest remaining schedule. We're just in a waiting game to find out if the Chiefs can three-peat. -- Walder
Tangible second-half goal: Get the AFC's No. 1 seed. Anything less seems like a failure. The Chiefs are the AFC's only unbeaten team, and every other team in the conference has at least two losses. They had an early bye this season (Week 6), so the break given to the top seed during wild-card weekend would come at a good time. Not having to travel for any postseason games before the Super Bowl is an added bonus. -- Adam Teicher