The NFL's revised injury report procedures have significantly reduced the number of players listed through the first two weeks of the season, a triumph for league officials who believed the reports had grown too cluttered with meaningless designations.
But the changes have come with a catch: Those players who are listed have increasingly been classified as "questionable," presumably the least predictive category available.
Let's take a look at data compiled through Week 2 by Lee Singer of ESPN Stats & Information and with a few suggestions about how to interpret it if, say, your weekly fantasy decisions might incorporate injury information. (Ha!) Singer found the following:
A total of 272 players have been listed with injuries on the game status report, which is released two days before kickoff. That's a 33 percent drop from 2015 and the smallest number through the same time period in at least 16 NFL seasons. In 2015, 411 players were listed during the first two weeks. This appears to be the primary benefit of eliminating the "probable" category -- there is less noise.
Here's the downside: Of those 272 players listed, 163 have been designated as questionable. That represents a 73 percent increase in the number of questionable players from the first two weeks of last season, during which 94 players were listed. The NFL's updated definition for "questionable" is that it is "uncertain as to whether the player will play in the game," according to a resolution approved this summer by the competition committee.
"Uncertain" actually has meant "pretty likely" in most cases so far. Despite the definition, nearly three-fourths of players designated as questionable have played in the game. In Week 2 alone, the percentage was 79 percent -- the highest in any week of an NFL season in at least the past 16. In 2015, 53 percent of questionable players ended up in uniform for the game. In other words, a player listed as "questionable" has had a 75 percent chance of playing, at least so far this season.
One productive bi-product is that teams have been more likely to declare players out, dispelling some of the guesswork for the week's most injured players. Through two weeks, 33 percent of players on injury reports have been declared out. That is again the highest percentage for Weeks 1-2 of an NFL season in at least 16 years. That figure was 24 percent in 2015.
Use of the "doubtful" category, which now means that a player is "unlikely" to be in uniform, has ticked up slightly but remains lightly utilized. It has accounted for 7 percent of players listed on the game status report, up from 5 percent over the same period last season.
The injury report might seem a mundane weekly obligation, but it is scrutinized intensely by opposing teams, fans, fantasy players and other gamblers for morsels of insight into which players will be available for a game. The NFL's decision to tweak the procedure this summer was based mostly on the minimal utility of the "probable" category; 95 percent of "probable" players had gone on to be in uniform for that game in recent years.
The first two weeks of a season are a relatively small sample size, and highly competitive coaches will no doubt continue searching for ways to minimize insight into their team's injuries. One obvious strategy already emerging is to classify as many players as "questionable" as possible.
The New England Patriots have been leaders in that approach, designating a player as questionable a league-high 17 times through two weeks. That's the highest number of questionable players for one team in Weeks 1-2 of a season since the Indianapolis Colts did it in 2006.
The Patriots will release their game status report later Wednesday for Thursday night's game against the Houston Texans. Stay tuned.