Week 1 of the NFL season was all sorts of goofy. From Aaron Rodgers' haircut to overtime chaos to an unreal 10 home underdogs, it's safe to say Week 1 was one of a kind. After a week like that, we need to level set. We need to digest what we just saw and determine what is news and what is noise. What matters and what doesn't. What can help us win as the season progresses and what is simply to be chalked up to variance.
Noise
Underdogs in games with a higher projected total had zero success in the outright market in Week 1. Literally zero. There were eight games in Week 1 that had a total north of 45 points and not once did the underdog pull off the upset. Does that mean you blindly run to the window and string together a bunch of money-line favorites in these sort of spots for Week 2? Not so fast. In fact, if you remove the goofy 2020 season that was largely played without fans and was an outlier for myriad reasons, underdogs have actually been an increasingly good outright bet in games with a higher projected total. It's just one week
News
Teams favored by five or fewer points in Week 1 went 6-1 ATS. Now, it's important to note that it's only one week and recent trends for favorites in this area aren't great, but maybe this is a chance to get ahead of a trend. Worth monitoring.
Here are our ATS standings, matchups and betting nugget for each team, updated weekly.
Thursday
Los Angeles Chargers
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Chargers covered against the Raiders last week, snapping their four game ATS losing streak in games with a total of 50-plus. The last time the Chargers covered against a non-Raiders team in a game with a projected total of at least 50 points ... Week 3 last season, at Arrowhead.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 54.5)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Chiefs have covered four of their past five regular season games when favored with a total of at least 50 points.
Sunday 1 p.m.
New York Jets
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Sept. 22, 2019. That was the last time the Jets covered a game in September (0-7 ATS, unders are 5-2).
Cleveland Browns (-6, 40)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Browns were 3-3 ATS in their first six home games in 2020, but they are just 3-8 at The Dawg Pound since.
Washington Commanders
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: Don't look now, but Washington is 7-2-1 ATS in its past 10 games.
Detroit Lions (-2.5, 49)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Lions are 8-2 ATS over their past 10 home games (overs are 6-4 in those games).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 regular season games not played against the Saints.
New Orleans Saints
ATS: 0-0
O/U: 0-0
What we know: Seven straight wins (and covers) for the Saints in this divisional rivalry.
Carolina Panthers
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Panthers are now 10 months removed from their last cover (Week 10 at Cardinals).
New York Giants (-2.5, 43)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Under tickets have chased in 10 of New York's past 12 games (41 points last week in a game with a projected total of 44).
New England Patriots (-1.5, 40.5)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: After covering seven straight games in the middle of last season, the Pats are 1-4 ATS in their past five.
Pittsburgh Steelers
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Steelers are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight games against the AFC East, but they did manage to cover the last time they hosted the Patriots (Week 15, 2018).
Indianapolis Colts (-4, 47)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Dating back to last season, six straight Colts games have gone under the total (they are 3-3 ATS in those games, with the three losses coming in succession bridging last season with this one).
Jacksonville Jaguars
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Jags have seen over tickets cash in four of their past five games, a remarkable turnaround after eight straight Jacksonville games going under the total.
Miami Dolphins
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Fish are 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games when the projected total is under 45 points.
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 43.5)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Might the total not be close to the projection? Baltimore has seen 15 of their 18 regular-season games since the beginning of last season produce a point total at least 9.5 points different than the betting total (last week went under by 11 points).
Sunday 4 p.m.
Atlanta Falcons
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 1-0
What we know: Since the beginning of last season, teams are 25-39-3 ATS (39.1%) when they are an underdog by more than seven points with an expected total under 50.
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5, 47.5)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Since the beginning of 2020, 8 of 10 Ram games immediately following a loss have gone under the total.
Seattle Seahawks
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games on the road and in the division. That said, they did win (and cover) in their last trip to San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, 42.5)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The 49ers failed to cover in the Chicago monsoon last week and are thus looking to avoid consecutive ATS losses for the first time since Week 5-7 last season.
Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 43)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Bengals were road favorites three times last season. In those three games, the two times they covered, the game went under the total, and in their ATS loss, over tickets cashed.
Dallas Cowboys
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Is it possible that the books just can't figure out the Cowboys? Four of their past five games have finished with a point total that was at least 17.5 points different than the projection. They will be without Dak Prescott this week ... can they continue this trend and hang a big number?
Houston Texans
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Overs have come through in three of Houston's past four games when getting over seven points from their opponent (there were 53 points scored in their Week 1 loss in a game with a 43-point total).
Denver Broncos (-10, 43.5)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Under tickets cashed 61.9% of the time last season when the home team had five or fewer rest days between games, something that is the case here after the Broncos opened their season on Monday night in Seattle.
Arizona Cardinals
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: The Cards opened last season by going 9-5 ATS, but since then, they are just 1-5 (Week 1: 23-point loss as a 6-point underdog).
Las Vegas Raiders (-6, 51.5)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Bet the over if you want to back the Raiders. Vegas is just 3-8 ATS since the beginning of last season when unders hit.
Sunday night
Chicago Bears
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Bears have failed to cover six straight against the Packers with their average failure to cover margin coming in at 7.3 points.
Green Bay Packers (-10, 43)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Packers have failed to cover by over 11 points twice since the beginning of last season ... both came in Week 1s. After the embarrassing loss in New Orleans last season, Green Bay rattled off nine straight covers.
Monday Night Football
Tennessee Titans
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Be careful in counting out the Titans. Since the beginning of 2020, the Titans are 6-1 ATS when entering the game as an underdog by more than three points.
Buffalo Bills (-10, 49.5)
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: The Bills were 9-3-1 ATS last season when operating on a short or normal week, but 0-2-1 ATS when on extended rest. That's an odd happening and is worth mentioning after the Bills impressed last Thursday night in Los Angeles.
Minnesota Vikings
ATS: 1-0
O/U: 0-1
What we know: Overs were 7-2 in Viking road games last season.
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 51.5)
ATS: 0-1
O/U: 1-0
What we know: Five straight games played in Philadelphia have gone over the total. That said, four of their past six home games have seen the total be within five points of the projected total. Get ready to sweat this out for the final game of Week 2.