1. This is the fifth week ever in which both conference winners from the prior season are home underdogs. Los Angeles is the third reigning Super Bowl champion to be at least a seven-point home underdog. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games.
2. Tennessee's eight-game cover streak was snapped last week. Under Mike Vrabel, Tennessee is 15-4 ATS as an underdog of at least four points.
3. In Deshaun Watson's first start with Cleveland, the Browns (-8) are road favorites of at least a touchdown for the first time since 1995. Their 195 straight road games without being at least a 7-point favorite is the fourth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
4. Miami is a four-point underdog despite an 8-3 record. Over the past five seasons, teams with at least a .700 winning percentage are 17-6 ATS when getting at least 3.5 points in games in November or later.
5. Tom Brady is just 2-11 ATS in prime-time games since joining Tampa Bay. He is 2-14 ATS in his past 16 prime-time games (both including playoffs).
Season notes
Best ATS teams: Tennessee, Cincinnati, New York Giants (all 8-3)
Worst ATS team: Los Angeles Rams (2-8-1)
Best average cover margin: Dallas (+7.2)
Worst average cover margin: Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Underdogs: 94-75-6 ATS
Home teams: 88-86-6 ATS
Home underdogs: 38-27-3 ATS
7+ point favorites: 17-25-1 ATS
10+ point favorites: 7-11 ATS
Unders: 100-78-2
Buffalo Bills (-5) at New England Patriots, Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET
Buffalo unders are 8-3 this season, including 6-0 on the road.
Buffalo is 0-4-1 ATS in its past five games.
New England is 7-2-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last season (3-0-1 ATS this season). Bill Belichick is 62-33-1 ATS following a loss with New England.
This is the second time in the past 20 seasons that New England has been a home underdog in a division game. They lost 38-9 as a seven-point home underdog against Buffalo in 2020.
Unders in division games are 32-20-1 this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (PK) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday at 1 ET
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its past six games after starting 6-0 ATS.
Since 2017, Pittsburgh is 5-10-1 ATS on fewer than six days' rest.
Pittsburgh is 3-0 ATS in its past three games against teams with losing records.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-8), Sunday at 1 ET
Russell Wilson is 4-0 ATS in his career as at least a 7.5-point underdog (1-3 SU). He has only been an eight-point underdog once - Seattle lost by five as 9.5-point underdogs in 2018 at the Los Angeles Rams.
Baltimore is 0-4 ATS as a home favorite this season (five straight ATS losses dating back to last season). Lamar Jackson is 10-19 ATS as a home favorite including playoffs. Overall, Baltimore is 0-4-1 ATS at home this season.
Denver games are 10-1 to the under, the best under percentage in the league. Denver is the first team to go under in 10 of its first 11 games since 2011 (Jacksonville and Miami). In the last 30 seasons, only 2003 Buffalo and 1997 Washington have gone under in 11 of their first 12 games. Seven straight Denver games have gone under.
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 ET
Green Bay has covered seven straight meetings. Aaron Rodgers is 22-7 ATS against Chicago including playoffs (11-3 on road). The last time Green Bay was not at least a four-point favorite was Week 1 of 2019 (+3).
Green Bay is 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season with six straight ATS losses. Green Bay is 0-2 outright as a road favorite this season (0-5 ATS, 1-4 SU in past five games as road favorite).
Chicago is 0-3 ATS in its past three games.
Chicago is 7-16 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.
Unders in division games are 32-20-1 this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at Detroit Lions, Sunday at 1 ET
Jacksonville has been a road favorite one time in the past three seasons (Week 1 of 2021 at Houston - lost outright as three-point favorite).
Jacksonville has failed to cover its past seven games as a favorite including 0-3 ATS this season and 0-6 ATS since 2020.
Detroit has covered four straight games.
Detroit is 18-10 ATS under Dan Campbell, tied for the second-best mark in that span. Campbell is 9-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Cleveland Browns (-7) at Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 ET
Cleveland has not been at least a seven-point road favorite since 1995 (-8). Its 195 straight road games without being at least a seven-point favorite is the fourth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era and the second-longest active streak (New York Jets: 249 straight entering this week, since 1991).
Quarterbacks who have not started a game in 500 or more days and are laying at least seven points in their first start after the layoff are 1-6 ATS in the past 25 seasons, including 1-3 outright and ATS in the past 15 seasons.
Houston is 7-0 ATS against Cleveland since 2008.
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its past six games and 0-3 ATS in its past three games.
Cleveland is 8-17 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski (2-5 ATS as road favorite). Cleveland's largest favorite role under Stefanski is 6.5 points.
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3), Sunday at 1 ET
New York is 4-1 outright and ATS on the road this season.
Minnesota has covered six straight non-conference games (3-0 ATS this season).
New York is 5-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 under Robert Saleh (6-2 ATS in all games when not at least a 3.5-point underdog).
Minnesota is 8-0 outright as a favorite this season, one of three undefeated teams as a favorite (Washington: 4-0, New York Jets: 2-0). Minnesota is 3-0-1 ATS as a favorite of 1-3 points and 1-3 ATS as a favorite of four or more points.
Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 ET
Washington is 6-0-1 ATS in its past seven games, including 4-0 ATS on the road in that span. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS this season with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. He is 7-0-1 ATS in his past eight starts and 13-9-1 ATS in his career including playoffs.
Washington is 4-0 ATS as a favorite this season, with six straight covers dating back to last season. Washington is 4-0 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.
New York is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Unders are 12-0-1 the past 13 times New York has been a home underdog.
Daniel Jones is 4-1 outright and ATS against Washington.
New York is 3-0 ATS after a loss this season.
Unders in division games are 32-20-1 this season.
Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5), Sunday at 1 ET
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS at home this season. Its past five home games went over the total. Tennessee is 5-1 ATS on the road with five straight covers.
Mike Vrabel is 15-4 ATS as an underdog of at least four points including playoffs (13-6 outright).
Tennessee is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games, including 4-1 ATS as an underdog in that span. Its eight-game cover streak was snapped last week against Cincinnati.
Tennessee is 15-10-1 ATS after a loss under Mike Vrabel (9-4 ATS since 2020).
Seattle Seahawks (-8) at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday at 4:05 ET
Geno Smith has never been more than a 5.5-point favorite in his career, and he's never been more than a three-point favorite on the road.
Los Angeles is the third reigning Super Bowl champion to be at least a seven-point home underdog (1987 New York: +10; 1968 Green Bay: +9). This is the fifth time both conference champions from the previous season are home underdogs in the same week (first since Week 17 of 2020).
Los Angeles has not been a seven-point home underdog since Week 17 of 2016 (+7 vs Arizona). It has not been a bigger home underdog since Week 11 of 2014 (+9 vs Denver; won outright).
Los Angeles is a league-worst 2-8-1 ATS this season, including 0-4-1 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 ATS at home, and 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records.
Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings including playoffs. Sean McVay is 7-4 ATS against Pete Carroll.
Unders in division games are 32-20-1 this season.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers (-4), Sunday at 4:05 ET
Tua Tagovailoa is 18-11-1 ATS in his career (8-4-1 ATS as underdog). He is 7-2-1 ATS as an underdog of at least 3.5 points (6-4 outright).
Kyle Shanahan is 9-17-2 ATS as a home favorite. However, he is 6-1 ATS in his past seven games in that role (3-1 ATS this season). His past six games as a home favorite went under the total.
Over the past five seasons, teams with at least a .700 winning percentage are 17-6 ATS when getting at least 3.5 points in games in November or later. They are 15-4 ATS when removing Week 17 games.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday at 4:25 ET
Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in its past nine games.
Cincinnati has covered six straight games as an underdog dating back to last season including playoffs.
Kansas City is 49-27-1 ATS on the road under Andy Reid.
Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in conference games this season.
Kansas City road games are 10-3 to the over since the start of last season, going over in eight of their past nine games.
Cincinnati games are 5-0 to the under when facing teams with winning records.
This is the fifth time both conference champions from the previous season are home underdogs in the same week (first since Week 17 of 2020).
Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:25 ET
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS on the road this season.
Las Vegas has covered three straight games as an underdog. Las Vegas is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 2-5 ATS as a favorite. This is their first game as a home underdog since last year's Week 18 matchup against Los Angeles (Las Vegas won by three as three-point home underdogs).
Justin Herbert is 13-8 ATS in his career on the road but only 4-5 ATS as a road favorite.
Unders in division games are 32-20-1 this season.
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET
Dallas is an NFL-best 20-8 ATS since the start of last season, including 14-5 ATS as a favorite.
Indianapolis games are 9-3 to the under this season (5-1 on road; 6-0 vs teams with winning records).
Double-digit favorites are 0-4 ATS in prime-time games since Week 8. Double-digit favorites are 19-28-1 ATS in prime-time games over the past 10 seasons.
Indianapolis has not been a double-digit underdog since Week 5 of 2019. That week, Indianapolis upset Kansas City 19-13 as an 11-point underdog.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5), Monday at 8:15 ET (ESPN)
Tom Brady is 2-14 ATS in his past 16 primetime games including playoffs. He is 2-11 ATS including playoffs with Tampa Bay.
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS on the road this season.
Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS after a loss this season.
Tampa Bay games are 9-2 to the under this season.
Unders in division games are 32-20-1 this season.