If you are reading this, congratulations on reaching Week 2 of the ESPN Eliminator Challenge. Last week, about one-third of Eliminator Challenge picks lost, with the Minnesota Vikings (9%) and Kansas City Chiefs (8%) knocking out the most entrants.
Week 2 strategy is wide open, especially after Aaron Rodgers' injury moved the Dallas Cowboys' Week 2 line against the New York Jets from -3 to -8.5. That is now the second-largest spread of the week, only behind Rodgers' Week 1 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, who are nearly double-digit favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders.
However, while the Bills are the No. 1 option this week, the Cowboys do not make the list of our top three picks. Factoring in Mike Clay's season-long projections, ESPN Analytics, Caesars Sportsbook odds and future schedules, here are our Week 2 Eliminator Challenge tips and advice.
Click here to download Mike Clay's Eliminator Cheat Sheet, which is updated weekly.
Las Vegas Raiders at Buffalo Bills
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 1 PM ET
The Bills are the biggest betting favorite of the week and the most likely team to win according to both Mike Clay's projections and ESPN Analytics.
They are the safest pick this week.
This would be the 23rd time in the Super Bowl era that an 0-1 team is at least an eight-point favorite over a 1-0 team. The favorites have won each of the previous 22 instances. This is one of five remaining games on the Bills' schedule where Mike Clay gives them at least an 80% chance to win, including next week in Washington, so there are plenty of chances to pick the Bills. However, Week 2 is as good a time as any to burn them.
Mike Clay chance to win: 83%
Caesars Sportsbook: 9.5-point favorites, -440 money line
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 PM ET
The Giants are the only team this week playing their easiest matchup of the season, according to Mike Clay, as they visit the lowly Arizona Cardinals. ESPN Analytics ranks the Cardinals as the NFL's worst team, 4.1 points worse than anyone else.
While the Giants' rating dropped more than anyone else following their 40-0 Week 1 loss, that should ensure they do not take the Cardinals lightly. The Giants are 7-0 against the spread following a loss under Brian Daboll, and if that trend continues, the Giants should help you advance and keep teams like the Bills, Cowboys, 49ers and Eagles in play.
Mike Clay chance to win: 66%
Caesars Sportsbook: 5.5-point favorites, -240 money line
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Thursday 8:15 PM ET
If you want to get your Week 2 pick out of the way early, look to Thursday night. The Eagles are seven-point favorites over the Vikings. Each of the last 19 favorites of at least seven points in midseason "Thursday Night Football" games have won the game outright, so while Thursday games can provide more volatility, the best teams typically win.
With the 49ers playing on the road, and the Cowboys facing a Jets team that ESPN Analytics still views as a top-15 team in the NFL, the Eagles get a slight nod as the third choice this week.
Mike Clay chance to win: 75%
Caesars Sportsbook: 7-point favorites, -320 money line