Week 13 changed the College Football Playoff picture drastically when six of the top 16 teams in the selection committee's rankings lost, with four of the losses coming against unranked opponents.
The SEC took one of the bigger hits, as No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss, and No. 15 Texas A&M all lost road games to unranked opponents. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the SEC now has a 43% chance to send four teams to the CFP, but you'll only find three in the latest bracket projection.
One of the committee's biggest questions Tuesday night will be how far it drops three-loss Alabama following the Tide's disastrous performance in a loss to Oklahoma.
Based on how the committee ranked its third top 25 of the season and understanding what they value each week, here is a snapshot of what it might look like Tuesday -- through 13 weeks of data. Check back after the reveal (8 p.m., ESPN) for an updated bubble watch using the committee's fourth of six rankings.
For now, this is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 25 for this week -- plus a look at eight more teams who could play their way in, and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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Byes | First-round matchups
Last two in | First four out
Next four out | Group of 5