The college football games, storylines and arguments that will dominate November

The college football calendar is a cruel one. The offseason lasts eight months (nine, if your team isn't very good), and we try to savor every ounce of the three to four months of action that we get. Only ... most of what we end up actually remembering from a given season happens in a single month: November.

The Kick Six happened on Nov. 30. Nebraska-Oklahoma 1971, aka the Game of the Century? Nov. 25. Hail Flutie? Nov. 23. The Flea Kicker: Nov. 9. Michigan beating Ohio State in 1969 to start the Ten Year War: Nov. 22. Wide Right I: Nov. 16. Run, Lindsay, Run: Nov. 8. You get the idea.

It takes a couple of months to set the stakes for a given season, and then November settles them.

Happy Nov. 1, by the way.

To get ready for the biggest month of the college football season, let's take a look at the most important games and, probably, the biggest arguments we have in store for this glorious month ahead.

What will we be arguing about in a month?

The first College Football Playoff rankings come out on Tuesday, and because there isn't a whole heck of a lot going on in Week 10 -- four of the top five teams in this week's AP poll are on bye, and the fifth (Clemson) is playing Wofford -- we have a decent idea of how the first rankings will look. Alabama, LSU and Ohio State will probably be the top three in some order, Clemson and Penn State will be fourth and fifth, and from there we'll get a batch of one-loss teams (Oklahoma, Oregon, the Florida-Georgia winner, maybe Utah), then the remaining Power 5 unbeatens (Baylor and Minnesota).

We will argue about this because it's what we do. The initial rankings won't matter for all that long, though. All that matters is where we end up. Using the ESPN Stats & Information's playoff predictor tool (which itself uses FPI), I tried to create a hierarchy of College Football Playoff odds based on potential upcoming results.

Teams in bold win out from here through championship week. For the teams that aren't in bold, I created specific circumstances in parentheses. Obviously tons of other scenarios exist, but I was aiming to account for all the likeliest ones.

1. 13-0 Alabama: 99.9%
2. 13-0 Ohio State: 99.8%
3. 13-0 LSU: 99.6%
4. 13-0 Penn State: 99.6%
5. 13-0 Clemson: 99.3%
6. 12-1 Alabama (SEC champ with a loss to Auburn): 97.0%
7. 12-1 LSU (SEC champ with loss to Texas A&M): 96.4%
8. 12-1 Penn State (Big Ten champ with regular-season loss to Minnesota): 94.9%
9. 12-1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ with loss to Michigan): 91.7%
10. 12-1 Georgia: 88.6%
11. 12-1 Alabama (loss in SEC championship game): 83.7%
12. 12-1 LSU (loss in SEC championship game): 82.1%
13. 12-1 Penn State (loss in Big Ten championship game): 81.2%
14. 12-1 Ohio State (loss in Big Ten championship game): 79.1%
15. 12-1 Florida: 78.6%
16. 13-0 Minnesota: 78.4%
17. 11-2 Auburn (wins SEC): 73.7%
18. 11-1 LSU (loses to Alabama, doesn't reach SEC title game): 73.0%
19. 11-1 Alabama (loses to LSU, doesn't reach SEC title game): 65.3%
20. 11-1 Penn State (loses to Ohio State, doesn't reach Big Ten title game): 59.2%
21. 13-0 Baylor: 54.7%
22. 11-1 Ohio State (loses to Penn State, doesn't reach Big Ten title game): 51.8%
23. 12-1 Oregon: 42.7%
24. 12-1 Oklahoma: 29.5%
25. 11-2 Florida (loses to Florida State but wins SEC): 29.2%
26. 12-1 Clemson (ACC champ with a loss to South Carolina): 27.3%
27. 11-2 Georgia (loses to Auburn but wins SEC): 23.3%
28. 12-1 Minnesota (Big Ten champ with regular-season loss to Penn State): 21.5%
29. 12-1 Utah: 18.2%
30. 12-1 Clemson (loses in ACC title game): 13.8%
31. 11-2 Wisconsin: 9.6%
32. 12-1 Baylor (Big 12 champ with regular season loss to Oklahoma): 5.4%
33. 11-2 Iowa: 5.4%

These were the teams and scenarios I could find that produced at least a 5% chance of making the CFP. We can quibble with some of these numbers if you want. If Baylor wins out, for instance, then the only way I think the Bears don't get a playoff spot is if there are four other unbeaten teams. I think their odds are better than 55%. (Baylor's odds above do not take into account its win over West Virginia.)

Still, this gives us a solid understanding of both the title hierarchy and the arguments to come.

Imagine scenarios involving some combination of an 11-1 Bama-LSU loser, an 11-1 Penn State/Ohio State loser, a 12-1 Oregon and a 12-1 Oklahoma (or, apparently, 13-0 Baylor) battling for one spot. It's quite possible at least one of those four candidates will lose another game beyond what's listed, but this would be one doozy of a debate featuring all the greatest hits -- the value of conference titles, which teams didn't play anybody, etc. And while most races come down to basically choosing one of two teams, it's not hard to envision this one being a lot more complicated.

Are you mad about this already? Good. I've done my job.

Where each conference race stands

Flipping from FPI to my SP+ ratings, let's take a look at the conference title races. There's still a lot to be decided between now and Nov. 30.

Using SP+ projections and average projected conference wins, I'm listing everyone projected within a game of each division's lead.

ACC

Atlantic: Clemson (7.9 projected conference wins)
Coastal: Virginia (5.0), UNC (4.4), Pitt (4.4), Miami (4.0), VT (4.0)
Key remaining games: Virginia at UNC (Nov. 2), Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (Nov. 9), North Carolina at Pitt (Nov. 14), Wake Forest at Clemson (Nov. 16), Pitt at Virginia Tech (Nov. 23), Virginia Tech at Virginia (Nov. 29)

I listed Clemson-Wake in the key games because Wake is the only team within even 3.5 projected wins of the Tigers in the Atlantic, but we know who's winning that division. The fact that four Coastal teams are within easy striking range of that title, however, is delicious.

Big 12

Baylor (7.5), Oklahoma (7.1), Iowa State (5.4), Texas (4.9)
Key remaining games: Iowa State at Oklahoma (Nov. 9), Oklahoma at Baylor (Nov. 16), Texas at Iowa State (Nov. 16), Texas at Baylor (Nov. 23)

Thanks to Iowa State's gut-wrenching bad fortune, this race has grown pretty clear. If anyone can muddy up the waters, though, it's either ISU or Texas, but Baylor probably needs to lose a couple of times at this point.

Big Ten

East: Ohio State (8.5), Penn State (7.6)
West: Minnesota (7.4)
Key remaining games: Penn State at Ohio State (Nov. 23), Wisconsin at Minnesota (Nov. 30)

In the playoff discussion above, I referenced a scenario in which Ohio State loses to Michigan -- stop snickering, Michigan will beat the Buckeyes again ... at some point ... maybe -- but that one probably matters only to the national title race. It's hard to imagine anyone but the winners of the two games above winning this conference. And Minnesota will need to have lost another game before Wisconsin visits for that one to even matter.

Pac-12

North: Oregon (8.1)
South: Utah (7.3), USC (6.6)
Key remaining games: Oregon at USC (Nov. 2), Utah at Washington (Nov. 2)

The North race is just about over, but the South is a little blurrier -- USC has the tiebreaker over Utah but is far more likely to lose another game down the stretch. If the Trojans survive Oregon on Saturday, a pothole trip to Arizona State looms.

SEC

East: Florida (5.9), Georgia (5.9)
West: Alabama (7.3), LSU (7.1)
Key remaining games: Florida vs. Georgia (Nov. 2), LSU at Alabama (Nov. 9)

The East race will be all but decided this weekend in Jacksonville, Florida, and the West race (plus the race to be the team we use in the "They're 11-1 and clearly elite but didn't win their conference title!" scenarios) will probably settle itself in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, next Saturday.

AAC

East: Cincinnati (6.6), UCF (6.4)
West: SMU (6.1), Navy (6.1), Memphis (6.1)
Key remaining games: SMU at Memphis (Nov. 2), SMU at Navy (Nov. 23), Cincinnati at Memphis (Nov. 29)

Cincinnati's obviously in excellent shape in the East thanks to the home win over UCF, while Memphis already holds the tiebreaker over Navy and could seize control with a win over SMU. But if the Mustangs win, that SMU-Navy game in a few weeks is enormous.