Tuesday's NBA slate features 11 games, but the game I'm most interested in from a betting standpoint is the Dallas Mavericks at the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavaliers have been the hottest team in the league since January, but they have lost three of their past five matchups against the Mavericks. Let's dive into my betting recommendations from that game and more.
Moody's favorite plays for Tuesday
Donovan Mitchell over 35.5 points, rebounds and assists. The Cavaliers are 4.5-point favorites against the Mavericks, indicating a competitive game. Dallas has struggled on defense throughout the season, ranking near the bottom in points, rebounds and assists per game allowed to shooting guards. Mitchell has exceeded this line in 15 of his past 20 games and in 69% of his games this season.
Evan Mobley over 8.5 rebounds. The Mavericks rank 21st in rebounds per game allowed to power forwards. This is a great spot for Mobley to shine as a rebounder. He has surpassed this line in three of his past five games and in 13 of his past 20.
John Collins over 25.5 points, rebounds and assists. After a messy divorce with the Hawks, Collins returns to Atlanta for the first time as a member of the Jazz. I'm buying into the revenge game narrative. Collins has cleared this line in seven of his past 10 games, and the Hawks rank 28th in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Collin Sexton over 17.5 points. Sexton played college basketball at the University of Alabama and is originally from Marietta, Georgia. I think he'll will be motivated to deliver an exceptional performance with his family and friends in attendance. He also has an excellent matchup against the Hawks, who rank 23rd in points per game allowed to shooting guards.
Jayson Tatum over 25.5 points. The 76ers miss Joel Embiid's presence in the middle, which bodes well for Tatum as the go-to option for the Celtics. Although he has only gone over this line in five of his past 10 games, Tatum has averaged 20.0 field goal attempts and 27.3 points over that span. Tatum has been gaining more notoriety in the MVP race of late, and this matchup presents him a great opportunity to strengthen his argument.
Alperen Sengun under 19.5 points. Sengun has a difficult matchup against Chet Holmgren and the Thunder. Oklahoma City ranks 18th in points per game allowed to centers. Sengun has gone under this line in seven of his past 10 games and in four of his past six games against the Thunder. Oklahoma City is also exceptional at protecting the rim.
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com.
Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Records (Against the Spread)
Mavericks: 33-24 (31-26-0)
Cavaliers: 37-19 (28-27-1)
Line: Cavaliers (-4.5) Total: 233.5
Money Line: Mavericks (+150), Cavaliers (-180)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 8, straight up 77%, 224.5 total points.
Injury Report:
Mavericks: Dante Exum, (GTD - Knee); Dereck Lively II, (GTD - Nose); Josh Green, (GTD - Elbow); Luka Doncic, (GTD - Nose); Maxi Kleber, (GTD - Nose)
Cavaliers: Tristan Thompson, (OUT - Suspension); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Ankle)
Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic
7 p.m. Amway Center, Orlando
Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 22-35 (25-29-3)
Magic: 32-26 (36-22-0)
Line: Magic (-8.5) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Nets (+300), Magic (-380)
BPI Projection: Magic by 8.2, straight up 77%, 223.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Nets: Cam Thomas, (GTD - Ankle); Ben Simmons, (OUT - Knee); Dariq Whitehead, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Magic: Jonathan Isaac, (GTD - Knee); Paolo Banchero, (GTD - Illness)
Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 29-27 (29-25-2)
Wizards: 9-48 (27-29-1)
Line: Warriors (-11.5) Total: 243.5
Money Line: Warriors (-550), Wizards (+425)
BPI Projection: Warriors by 11.1, straight up 84%, 233.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Gui Santos, (OUT - Knee)
Wizards: Corey Kispert, (GTD - Illness); Deni Avdija, (GTD - Heel); Landry Shamet, (GTD - Neck); Bilal Coulibaly, (OUT - Pelvis); Isaiah Livers, (OUT - Hip)
Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. State Farm Arena, Atlanta
Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 27-31 (32-26-0)
Hawks: 25-32 (18-39-0)
Line: Hawks (-1.5) Total: 236.5
Money Line: Jazz (+105), Hawks (-125)
BPI Projection: Jazz by 0.6, straight up 52%, 245.2 total points.
Injury Report:
Jazz: Otto Porter Jr., (OUT - Not Injury Related)
Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye, (GTD - Back); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Trae Young, (OUT - Finger)
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. TD Garden, Boston
Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 33-24 (32-25-0)
Celtics: 45-12 (28-26-3)
Line: Celtics (-12.5) Total: 231.5
Money Line: 76ers (+550), Celtics (-800)
BPI Projection: Celtics by 13.6, straight up 90%, 226.5 total points.
Injury Report:
76ers: KJ Martin, (GTD - Ankle); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee); Joel Embiid, (OUT - Knee)
Celtics: None reported
New Orleans Pelicans at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Pelicans: 34-24 (30-27-1)
Knicks: 35-23 (31-26-1)
Line: Pelicans (-3.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: Pelicans (-150), Knicks (+130)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 0.2, straight up 51%, 232.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Pelicans: CJ McCollum, (GTD - Ankle); Zion Williamson, (GTD - Foot); Jose Alvarado, (OUT - Suspension); Dyson Daniels, (OUT - Knee)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (OUT - Thumb); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder); OG Anunoby, (OUT - Elbow); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT - Ankle)
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. Target Center, Minneapolis
Records (Against the Spread)
Spurs: 11-47 (26-31-1)
Timberwolves: 40-17 (30-24-3)
Line: Timberwolves (-13.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Spurs (+670), Timberwolves (-1050)
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 15.1, straight up 90%, 233.8 total points.
Injury Report:
Spurs: Marcus Morris Sr., (OUT - Not Injury Related); Charles Bassey, (OUT - Knee)
Timberwolves: Rudy Gobert, (GTD - Ankle); Jaylen Clark, (OUT - Achilles)
Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls
8 p.m. United Center, Chicago
Records (Against the Spread)
Pistons: 8-49 (28-28-1)
Bulls: 27-30 (30-26-1)
Line: Bulls (-10.5) Total: 225.5
Money Line: Pistons (+450), Bulls (-600)
BPI Projection: Bulls by 8.2, straight up 77%, 231.9 total points.
Injury Report:
Pistons: Isaiah Stewart, (GTD - Ankle); Marcus Sasser, (OUT - Knee)
Bulls: Torrey Craig, (OUT - Knee); Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee); Patrick Williams, (OUT - Foot); Zach LaVine, (OUT - Foot)
Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks
8 p.m. Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee
Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 15-42 (23-34-0)
Bucks: 37-21 (23-35-0)
Line: Bucks (-14.5) Total: 220.5
Money Line: Hornets (+800), Bucks (-1400)
BPI Projection: Bucks by 15.1, straight up 90%, 234.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Hornets: Davis Bertans, (GTD - Knee); Seth Curry, (GTD - Hip); LaMelo Ball, (OUT - Ankle); Mark Williams, (OUT - Back)
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD - Knee); Khris Middleton, (OUT - Ankle)
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder
10 p.m. Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Records (Against the Spread)
Rockets: 25-32 (28-27-2)
Thunder: 40-17 (36-20-1)
Line: Thunder (-9.5) Total: 235.5
Money Line: Rockets (+400), Thunder (-500)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 10.7, straight up 83%, 230.7 total points.
Injury Report:
Rockets: Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee)
Thunder: None reported
Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. Moda Center, Portland
Records (Against the Spread)
Heat: 32-25 (28-28-1)
Blazers: 15-41 (25-31-0)
Line: Heat (-7.5) Total: 212.5
Money Line: Heat (-290), Blazers (+240)
BPI Projection: Heat by 6.4, straight up 73%, 214.4 total points.
Injury Report:
Heat: Orlando Robinson, (GTD - Back); Terry Rozier, (GTD - Knee); Tyler Herro, (GTD - Knee); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder); Thomas Bryant, (OUT - Suspension); Dru Smith, (OUT - Knee)
Blazers: Rayan Rupert, (GTD - Ankle); Moses Brown, (OUT - Wrist); Scoot Henderson, (OUT - Thigh); Malcolm Brogdon, (OUT - Elbow); Shaedon Sharpe, (OUT - Abdomen); Robert Williams III, (OUT - Knee)