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          Betting tips for 'Thursday Night Football': Broncos at Saints

          Spencer Rattler is expected to make another start in place of the injured David Carr. Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
          • ESPN
          Oct 17, 2024, 01:00 PM

          This week's NFL action kicks off with the Denver Broncos visiting the New Orleans Saints on "Thursday Night Football" (8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video).

          The Saints opened as 0.5-point favorites, but the line has since shifted toward the Broncos. New Orleans is dealing with the injury bug that will keep some key players out, including wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave, with several others listed as questionable for Thursday's contest.

          Denver is is coming off home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, and the Saints have dropped four straight, including a blowout loss last week to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which they gave up 51 points at home.

          Thursday's game has the lowest point total of the week (36.5).

          Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

          Game lines

          Spread: Broncos -3
          Money line: Broncos (-150), Saints (+130)
          Over/Under: 36.5

          First-half spread: Broncos -0.5 (-110), Saints +0.5 (-110)
          Broncos total points: 19.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
          Saints total points: 17.5 (Over +100/Under -130)

          The props

          Passing

          Bo Nix total passing yards: 199.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Nix passing TDs: 1+ (-325), 2+ (+165), 3+ (+700), 4+ (+2500)
          Spencer Rattler total passing yards: 174.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
          Rattler passing TDs: 1+ (-225), 2+ (+225), 3+ (+1000), 4+ (+4000)

          Rushing

          Alvin Kamara total rushing yards: 69.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
          Javonte Williams total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
          Nix total rushing yards: 24.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
          Rattler total rushing yards: 19.5 (Over -130/Under +100)

          Receiving

          Courtland Sutton total receiving yards: 44.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
          Devaughn Vele total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
          Kamara total receiving yards: 34.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
          Troy Franklin total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
          J. Williams total receiving yards: 19.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

          Andre Snellings' pick

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          Where Tyler Fulghum leans in the Broncos-Saints game

          Tyler Fulghum explains why he's taking the Broncos with the points against the Saints.

          Saints team total UNDER 17.5 points (-130)

          The Saints are likely to once again be without starting quarterback Derek Carr (doubtful, oblique), which would put Spencer Rattler in line to make his second straight start. While Rattler had a reasonable NFL debut only four days ago, the Saints' 27 points in that game were deceptive. Their scoring drives, all of which came in the second quarter, included a punt return touchdown, a 17-yard field goal drive after an interception and a 10-yard touchdown drive after another interception.

          In his last eight drives of the game, Rattler led the Saints to five punts, two interceptions and zero points scored. The Broncos are an elite defense, ranking top five in the NFL in fewest points allowed (fourth, 18.7 PPG allowed), yards allowed (fourth, 278.2 YPG) and passing yards allowed (fifth, 170.8 yards). That defense, in a short week, against a Rattler-led offense that has bet hit especially hard at the skill positions -- Chris Olave (out, concussion), Alvin Kamara (questionable, hand), Rashid Shaheed (out, knee), Taysom Hill (questionable, ribs) -- likely leads to a low-scoring game for the Saints.

          Joe Fortenbaugh's pick

          From First Bet, published on Mondays

          The number 37 is key when it comes to betting NFL totals, so let's get ahead of the pending move and lock in 37.5 now because I see this closing at 36.5 or lower. Since 2017, Thursday night totals of 40 or less are 20-7 to the under, which is a highly profitable hit rate of 74%. I know New Orleans just got torched for 51 points and 594 total yards against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, but this Denver offense is a dink-and-dunk outfit that can't stretch the field like the Buccaneers. For those interested in the derivatives market, it's worth noting that Denver has been held scoreless in the first half of three of its six contests.

          Betting trends

          Courtesy ESPN Research

          • Excluding the London game, road favorites were a perfect 9-0 ATS in Week 6, the most covers by road favorites without an ATS loss in a single week in the Super Bowl era (excluding international games).

          • The Broncos are 3-0 ATS on the road this season, all as underdogs.

          • The Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their past six games on short rest (0-3 ATS under Sean Payton). The Saints are 1-6 ATS on short rest under Dennis Allen (0-4 ATS since start of last season).

          • Prime-time unders are 81-52-1 over the last three seasons,

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