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Senior Writer, F1
Gut instinct versus data
It is the job of a Formula One team to do everything in its power to minimise the margin for error. Given the opportunity, teams will take advantage of any advance in technology to ensure the best chance of getting their cars from lap one to the chequered flag with as few mistakes as possible. Monaco, however, has the potential to force an error even when there are no apparent errors to be forced. The track is so different to others on the calendar that nothing can be taken for granted, right down to how many litres of €12 beer were spilt at Rascasse the night before and how that effects grip levels the following morning. And it was one of those Monaco anomalies that contributed to Mercedes being caught out on Sunday.
On a conventional circuit without tunnels and tower blocks, teams track the cars to their exact position using GPS systems. But in Monaco the signals get interrupted and the pit wall is then forced to rely on split times and good old-fashioned racing nous to make strategy decisions. From the outside looking in, it can often seem simple, but throw a few numbers to the third decimal point into the mix and crunch them with split-second calculations and the margin for error increases.
On Sunday, Hamilton crossed the line to complete lap 64 of the Monaco Grand Prix with a 25.727s lead over team-mate Nico Rosberg in second. At the time the race was neutralised by the first use of the virtual safety car in F1 following Max Vestappen's crash, giving Hamilton a very healthy lead with 14 laps remaining. His first pit stop had taken 24.181s to complete from pit entrance to pit exit, meaning he just about had enough of an advantage to pit for new super-soft tyres and resume ahead of Rosberg (the margin was perhaps even bigger than the numbers suggest because Monaco's pit entrance cuts out the need to go around the final corner). But from the moment when the 25.727s gap was registered at the start-finish line to the time when Hamilton had to make a decision to enter the pits, things changed dramatically. In the interim the actual safety car had been deployed, thus slowing Hamilton's pace further as he came up behind it. Usually the Mercedes pit wall would have monitored the gap with GPS and quickly come to the conclusion that a pit stop was far to big a risk, but this was Monaco...
"I was listening to the radio - the talks were going forward and backwards - and there was too much confusion," Mercedes chairman Niki Lauda said after the race. "In the end it was the wrong decision, no question about it."
Hamilton was equally confused, and as the Mercedes pit crew took up position to cover all eventualities, he glanced up at one of the TV screens around the circuit and started to fear for his lead.
"I saw a screen, it looked like the team was out and I thought that Nico had pitted. Obviously I couldn't see the guys behind so I thought the guys behind were pitting. The team said to stay out, I said 'these tyres are going to drop in temperature', and what I was assuming was that these guys would be on options and I was on the harder tyre. So, they said to pit. Without thinking I came in with full confidence that the others had done the same."
Without a dry second practice session on Thursday, not to mention the way the track had evolved since then with a potent mixture of rubber and beer, Mercedes was also without a full understanding of the way the tyres would react after the safety car. Would it be possible to get the old softs (prime) back up to temperature to defend position or would the super-softs (option) give far more grip and make it easy to overtake?
"There was a message that the [tyre] temperatures dropped a lot and there was no grip in the prime tyres," Mercedes boss Toto Wolff said. "But it's still not the reason why we did it, the numbers just added up..."
... or so Mercedes thought. Initially the team told Hamilton not to pit, but a final decision was made as Hamilton rounded Rascasse just 50 metres before the pit entrance. His stop took 25.495s from pit entrance to pit exit and he emerged a nose length behind Sebastian Vettel as he rejoined at the safety car line - hence the jostling for position behind Rosberg. The new race leader still thought Hamilton was in with a chance of winning, but Vettel in second place made sure to exit Portier and the final corner perfectly for the remaining eight laps, therefore ensuring Hamilton was never close enough to force a passing move at the two overtaking spots at the Nouvelle Chicane and Sainte Devote.
It was a silly way to lose a motor race and made worse by Rosberg's pace on the old soft tyres that proved, with the benefit of hindsight, that a second pit stop was not necessary. By reading too much into its miscalculated time differences, the pit wall went against its initial instinct and gave up the most effective race winning tool in Monaco: track position. On other tracks with ample overtaking opportunities the strategy probably would have worked, but in Monaco the gamble simply didn't pay off.
LE
A rookie error
It's a shame Max Verstappen's brilliant debut weekend in Monaco will be remembered for his race-ending shunt with Romain Grosjean. The rookie took a brilliant second in FP1 and was one of the stars of the race up until his retirement. His early move on Pastor Maldonado and the shrewd tactic of following Sebastian Vettel through blue flags to pass cars belied his tender years and lack of experience. His crash did not.
Quite simply, Verstappen misjudged the move. After the race he accused Grosjean of brake-testing him and the replays showed the Lotus braked relatively early, but it was also on older, harder tyres. The stewards, who had access to the data, disagreed with Verstappen and penalised him with a grid penalty in Canada and points on his licence. Youngsters make mistakes. Grosjean took a defensive line going into the corner, which was his right to do, but in that situation Verstappen had the responsibility not to slam into the back of the Lotus. The crash showed inexperience; immediately blaming Grosjean for the crash showed a bit of immaturity. Mistakes happen and Verstappen should have come into the media pen and held his hands up to it.
NS