MELBOURNE, Australia -- For all the excitement surrounding the faster, meaner looking cars Formula One's new rules have produced, the ultimate test for F1 2017 will be the racing. Since Pirelli returned to the sport as the sole tyre supplier in 2011, entertainment (or the lack of it) on a dry Sunday afternoon had often been closely linked to the performance of the tyres -- specifically the rates at which they degrade. This year, however, Pirelli has changed the constructions and compounds of its tyres to meet new criteria and with that will come a different style of racing.
One of the core aims was to create tyres that could be pushed to the limit and abused without suffering a long-lasting loss in performance. In previous years, once the tyres overheated the rubber would lose its chemical grip and no matter how much a driver backed off it would not come back. This year, drivers are reporting that the tyres still overheat, but that their grip will return once they are allowed to cool again on the following straight.
But while Pirelli may have achieved one target, it appears to have come up short on another. The Italian tyre maker was also asked to continue to deliver degradation to ensure tyre strategy remains an important factor in race results. In that regard, the targets have not been hit and the result could be a season of predominantly one-stop races. In Australia, for example, the ultra-soft compound's performance needs to drop by roughly two seconds over nine laps to meet the FIA's degradation targets, but based on the data from Friday practice the performance was only dropping by a second over that time frame. As a result there is no lap-time incentive for the teams to pit their cars for fresh tyres.
Of course, degradation levels can change between Friday and Sunday, but it is unlikely it will be enough to convince the front running teams to deviate from a one-stop and risk losing track position. According to the Friday data, the ultra-soft is degrading at just over a tenth of a second per lap, the super-soft at just under a tenth and the soft is not really degrading at all. Pirelli's simulations suggest a two-stop only makes sense if degradation levels are over 0.15s a lap, but if the degradation remains at Friday levels the quickest way to complete 58 laps will be a one-stop.
Of course, all those plans could go out of the window with a safety car. Albert Park's unforgiving walls and low-grip surface increase the chances and an accident on the opening lap could give drivers the opportunity to make a pit stop for the softs and then sit the rest of the race out on those tyres. The gap between each compound step is roughly 0.7s, meaning a new ultra-soft should be 1.4s quicker than new soft, but with minimal degradation on the softs a driver could aim to keep track position and run to the end of the race without needing to pit again.
Alternatively, a late safety car could also open up opportunities for drivers and teams willing to take a gamble, as Daniel Ricciardo, who qualified tenth after a spin in qualifying, explained: "Maybe a safety car with about 15 laps to go would be the dream scenario. I put ultra-softs on, and I come from ... by that stage I might be up to eighth, and I come through to third. And then the first two guys get disqualified!"
Wishful thinking maybe, but a late accident could provide a very exciting finish.