Focus on... Ferrari vs Mercedes
Shanghai will show us just how real Ferrari's pace is. Sebastian Vettel scored a popular victory in Melbourne as the Italian team appeared to live up to pre-season hype that it will be the team to beat this season. But the Australian Grand Prix still left big questions about the battle at the front. Mercedes' decision to pit Lewis Hamilton early -- leaving him at the mercy of slower traffic while Vettel built a gap on an empty track out in front -- was probably the key moment of the race and robbed us of a more revealing fight in the final stages. The jury is still out about who has the quicker package; Ferrari customer Haas thinks it may now have the class-leading engine, though Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo believes Mercedes is still the benchmark.
This weekend should give a clearer indication. Shanghai will not only test both teams' chassis but the notorious long backstraight will also give an idea of where Ferrari's power unit is in comparison to Mercedes. F1 needs a close fight this season and many are already dreaming about finally seeing a proper Vettel-Hamilton fight in 2017. Statistics would make a Ferrari win significant, too. China has undoubtedly been a Mercedes stronghold since it returned to F1 in 2010 -- it has been on pole at every race stretching back to 2012 and has only once failed to score at least a podium. By contrast Ferrari has not claimed pole since Rubens Barrichello in 2004 and has won the race just once in this decade. A Ferrari victory would be a real statement.
The forecasted showers could throw an aura of unpredictability into proceedings, potentially bringing Red Bull and young rain master Max Verstappen into the equation, which would be a welcome advert for F1 after months of predictions about a three-way fight in 2017. Otherwise, Red Bull is clearly not ready to enter that battle in normal conditions just yet and Shanghai will also give a good idea of how much work they need to do in the remaining two fly-aways before its traditional flurry of upgrades at the start of the European season.
Keep an eye out for... Overtaking
Last year China featured a record number of overtakes, thanks in part to a mixed up grid from the short-lived elimination qualifying format and Lewis Hamilton's engine penalty forcing a back-row start. Australia's processional race seemed to confirm long-held fears that F1's new cars have been made faster at the expense of overtaking, with the added levels of downforce making cars harder to follow through high-speed corners. If drivers are still struggling to overtake in Shanghai this weekend, especially at the end of its long backstraight, F1 could have a bit of a problem on its hands.
In need of a podium
Most people expected Red Bull to be the team biting at the heels of Mercedes under 2017's new regulations. The team was a significant margin off the front throughout the Melbourne weekend and has downplayed expectations of making a big step forward in the next few races. Daniel Ricciardo thinks a podium is the best the team can hope for and, as it would require beating at least one Mercedes or Ferrari car, it would represent progress at this early stage of the season and give reason to believe they can make it a three-way fight later in the year.
In need of points
McLaren are in all sorts of problems with Honda. China's long backstraight should make for a painful weekend but the weather could give Fernando Alonso a chance of dragging the MCL32 into the top ten. Points would not gloss over the problems currently plaguing McLaren but would be a much-needed morale boost for a team seemingly approaching a critical juncture over its future as speculation about a Honda split intensifies.
ESPN prediction
Ferrari should be close in China but it's still very difficult to look past Lewis Hamilton; his four wins in Shanghai are more than anyone else has achieved. Toto Wolff thinks the Englishman is currently at the best level he's ever been since joining Mercedes and Hamilton himself says his desire to win a championship has "frickin' doubled" since losing out to Nico Rosberg last year. His strong start to the season in Melbourne, where he claimed pole by 0.3s, left little reason to doubt both those statements are true. Because of that and Mercedes' traditional strength in China, we are backing him to turn the tables on Vettel this time around and beat the German to the top step of the podium.
Betting
Lewis Hamilton is favourite to win at 5/4, though Sebastian Vettel's odds of 6/4 show he is almost equally favoured by the bookmakers. A maiden win for Valtteri Bottas gets odds of 13/2, while McLaren are 9/2 to be the first retirement. Impressive stand-in Antonio Giovinazzi is 12/1 to get points on his second appearance for Sauber as he continues to deputise for the unfit Pascal Wehrlein.
Weather
Shanghai umbrella salesmen would be wise to congregate near the city's F1 circuit this weekend. Intermittent showers are forecast on all three days, though Saturday's are currently set to miss qualifying and Sunday's are predicted to fall just before the lights go out for the grand prix. Forecasts can and most likely will change closer to the weekend but the threat of rain in the air always promises a great and unpredictable race. Expect Fernando Alonso and the Red Bull drivers to be leading the rain dance on Saturday and Sunday.
Tyres
Compounds: Medium, soft, super-soft
The circuit from a tyre point of view, courtesy of Pirelli:
• Track always feels 'green' and slippery during the first sessions of the weekend.
• There's a roughly equal split of corners and straights on the track, inaugurated in 2004.
• Corners that demand most from tyres are Turn 1 (a long right-hander) and Turn 13.
• The front-left tyre is worked hardest.
• The long straight means tyres can cool down and subsequently provoke graining.
• Straight also provides chances to overtake, so teams can opt for the quickest strategy.
• Pirelli will supply wet weather tyres in a different compound with better performance on low severity tracks and smooth asphalt
Mario Isola, Pirelli's head of racing:"We're bringing the middle selection of compounds, but we expect teams to use mainly soft and super-soft, depending of course on the unpredictable weather: especially as the allocation is just two sets of medium. In the past, there has been some graining in China due to the long straights followed by tight corners, but we've seen in Barcelona testing that graining is generally reduced this year, so it will be good to have that confirmed. In case of wet and possibly cool conditions, we will supply wet weather tyres in a different compound, with the target of giving the drivers more grip."
What's new?
• Pirelli is already collecting data for the 2018 range of prototype tyres, so China will provide some useful information when it comes to defining specifications.
• There is only one non-F1 support series for the China Grand Prix, which means that not much rubber will be laid down on track over the course of the weekend.
• For the first five races the teams all have seven sets of the softest compound available, four sets of the middle compound, and two of the hardest compound.