MONTE-CARLO, Monaco -- The question facing strategists at the Monaco Grand Prix is not how many stops to make, but when to make their single stop. Monaco's smooth track surface and the relatively hard ultra-soft compound this year means drivers could complete a full race distance on a single set if the regulations allowed. However, they will have to make a mandatory pit stop on Sunday and use at least two different compounds if the conditions stay dry.
The soft tyre is this weekend's chocolate teapot, so teams will be choosing when to switch from ultra-soft to super-soft or vice-a-versa. New tyre for new tyre, the ultra-soft is 0.7s per lap faster than the super-soft, so drivers will be keen to maximise their time on the ultra-softs given that there is zero degradation and minimal wear on both compounds.
"I suppose everybody is looking at a long stint on the ultra-soft, but we will see because the chance of a Safety Car is quite high," Pirelli's Mario Isola said. "Maybe somebody is starting on the super-soft and if we have a Safety Car it is possible to change to the ultra-soft and run all the race.
"Wear is not an issue, degradation is not an issue and looking at the tyres [after Thursday practice] they were perfect with no graining and no blisters. They have different strategy options because they can change when they want to pit depending on the race conditions. If the Safety Car is not at the beginning we could also have a different situation."
Starting from 13th on the grid, Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes may choose to run on the super-softs first in the hope of ditching them under an early Safety Car. It's unlikely the top ten would mirror the strategy as they are all starting on the ultra-softs and would not want to sacrifice their tyre advantage or track position so early in the race. If that happens, Hamilton will essentially get a free pit stop, be on the faster of the two tyres for the large majority of the race and be able to move his way up the field when the cars ahead of him pit later in the race.
A Safety Car from lap 15 onwards is likely to see all drivers pit and run to the end, but on the off chance that degradation is higher than expected (the furthest any driver has been on the ultra-softs so far is 34 laps) then a late Safety Car may tempt drivers with a big gap behind them to make a second stop and attack on fresh rubber at the end.