SUZUKA, Japan -- In terms of lateral loads through the tyres, Suzuka is only matched by Spa-Francorchamps on the F1 calendar. This year those loads are higher than ever, with significantly more downforce and the heaviest F1 cars in the modern era. Combined with hot temperatures there is the potential for enough tyre degradation to force a two-stop strategy, although it is likely teams will try to force a one-stopper if possible.
Suzuka's figure of eight layout means tyre wear is even left to right and the high-speed corners means it also balances front to rear. Last year the front right was typically the limiting tyre in terms of degradation, but in free practice this year it has been more balanced across all four tyres. Pirelli's simulations suggest the limit for the super-softs is 18-20 laps while the softs can go a maximum of 32-35 laps. With a 53-lap race, that means a one-stop is marginal and extra degradation caused by the high temperatures could see some drivers go aggressive on two stops, especially as the time lost making a pit stop is relatively short in Japan.
On Sunday morning track temperatures crept up to 40C, which is not far from those experienced at the Malaysian Grand Prix one week ago. However, it is unlikely Mercedes will suffer to the same extent as ambient temperatures are lower and the track layout does not punish the rear tyres in the same way. Daniel Ricciardo believes the thermometer mercury needs to be way higher than expected on Sunday to see a repeat of Malaysia.
"It needs to be above 30C degrees to have an impact," he said. "[The forecast of] 25C is going to be a bit hotter and it might be a bit harder on the tyres, but it is not going to be enough to swing that one second [gap to the Mercedes in qualifying] around."
Watch out for Valtteri Bottas and Kimi Raikkonen starting on soft tyres with five-place grid positions. Both are likely to run a long way into the race, but will have a significant advantage when they switch to fresh super-softs, which have a performance advantage of 0.7s over the soft when new. That could provide the opportunity for an undercut when other drivers are on several lap-old soft tyres.