MEXICO CITY -- The Mexican Grand Prix appears to be a nailed-on one-stop race due to the low levels of degradation from the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez's smooth tarmac.
With overtaking opportunities limited around the Mexico City circuit save for the long run down to Turn 1 and the subsequent few corners, track position and tyre selection will be crucial to determining the outcome. The lack of degradation and track evolution -- caused by a combination of the slippery track and the lower levels of downforce run at the high-altitude circuit -- means there are unlikely to be huge performance differences between tyres late in the race, which can limit opportunities to pass a car in front.
Pirelli's data so far has shown a gap of around 0.6s between ultra-soft and super-soft, and 0.5s between super-soft and soft. That creates an interesting alternative scenario for teams to consider. Unlike some races this year, where the hardest compound has been useless on Sunday due to its lack of performance compared to the softer tyres, the small gaps may well bring the yellow-striped Pirelli into play.
If temperatures remain warm -- it was nearly 40 degrees Celsius during second practice on Friday -- the soft will be an appealing option given the fact it is designed to work better at high temperatures than the super-soft, which has a much lower working range. So if it is hot, the performance gap between the two tyres will be lower and the soft will be a more viable race option. If it is cooler, and the gap between those two tyres tips back towards the 1s mark, the soft tyres are likely to stay in their blankets for the duration of the race.
In the event of having a race-relevant soft tyre, drivers may be keen to shed their ultra-softs in the opening 17 or so laps and complete a long stint. The soft tyre will be a popular choice in the event of an early Safety Car, so don't be surprised to see a driver or two taking an early gamble on this sort of strategy.
With such low levels of degradation, a two-stop strategy would surely only be the result of extenuating circumstances in the race.